Gwinnett County’s best known sporting event comes to town next week — the AT&T Classic golf tournament, to be played at Sugarloaf Country Club in Duluth. This PGA tournament has suffered in the past from bad weather when it was contested during the last weekend in March, just before the Masters, including having sleet, snow and rain fall several years ago.

As a result, the PGA moved the tournament to the third weekend in May last year, and golf fans saw picture perfect weather. I’ve been keeping an eye on the long range forecasts for next week, and unfortunately, the weather picture does not look good.

The image to the right shows an animated view of the GFS model prediction for temperature, wind and 12 hour rainfall from 1 AM on Thursday through 1 PM on the Monday after the tournament. As you can see, there’s a lot of dark blue and purple moving through Georgia for most of the tournament, with the exception of Saturday morning, when things take a little break. The weather finally clears out on Sunday night, just as the Classic is supposed to end.

Of course, forecasts could change in the next 7 to 10 days or so, but the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts from the CPC are both calling for more than usual rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures. Accuweather has also been fairly consistent in calling for rain when the Classic is going to be played.

After a 10 day period with little or no rainfall, we’re due for some rain, and we’re likely to get some beginning on Thursday and lasting through the weekend. After some calm weather early on the week of the 12th, it’s the rain scenario outlined above.

As someone who enjoys the golf tournament every year, I’ll be disappointed if the forecast comes true. On the other hand, given the drought, I’ll take the rain compared to last year, when only 1.1 inch of rain fell for the entire month of May.

It looks like we could have a record cold temperature this evening/Wednesday morning.  The current record low for April 30th is 40 degrees set back in 1969.  Forecasters are calling for a low of 36 in Lawrenceville, but only 42 for Hartsfield Airport, so it’s going to be close.  The Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for most of the state north of Macon.

The cold air is caused by Canadian high pressure sweeping into the area following last weekend’s rain.  Usually these cold blasts end around the first of April because developing high pressure off the Atlantic Coast (the proverbial Bermuda High) strengthens enough to counteract the approach of the cold front from the north.  Between this round and the cold weather back in the middle of the month, we’re likely to end April with below normal temperatures for the month.  You can be glad you’re not in Chicago or as far south as West Virginia, which have had a late season snowfall.

(more…)

It looks like Old Man Winter is going to take one more shot at Georgia over the next few days, and that could be bad news for gardeners and farmers across the state for a second year in a row. The Weather Service is calling for low temperatures in Lawrenceville of 36 degrees on Sunday night and Tuesday night, and 34 degrees Monday night. Across the state, lows are expected to be in the upper 30s Monday morning, and 31 in Atlanta, 32 in Athens, and 30 in Macon on Tuesday morning.

Accuweather.com is calling for lows of 34 on Sunday night, 30 Monday night and 39 Tuesday Night, while Weather.com says it will be 36 Sunday night, 31 on Monday and 33 on Tuesday.  In comparison, temperatures dropped to 28 degrees the nights of April 6 and 7, 2007, the infamous Easter Freeze that caused widespread damage to spring flowers and crops.

My guess is that the damage won’t be as bad as what we saw last year– it looks like it will be a little warmer– but I wouldn’t suggest you plant any annuals this weekend.  You should also bring in any houseplants or container plants you’ve set outside until at least Wednesday. If the worst does happen, Walter Reeves has a good article on coping with freeze damage.

(more…)

If you are like me, you were probably looking forward to the predicted sunny skies this afternoon, which obviously didn’t happen. The moist air left over from Saturday’s rain remained in place as the slow moving cold front that brought the rain stalled across south Georgia. This kept the clouds in place and kept the temperatures cooler than expected.

If you were hoping for bright April skies this week, it looks like that won’t happen either, and there is a possibility of rain affecting the upcoming Masters Tournament in Augusta this weekend. For the first part of the week, we’ll see another wedge keep temperatures cooler than normal, with a good chance of fog and drizzle in northeast Georgia.

The wedge moves out on Wednesday, leaving us with a pleasant day for the first round of the Masters on Thursday, but setting us up for a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Right now, it looks like the greatest chance of rain is in the western part of the state, but golfers could see rain on Friday and Saturday. The storm system moves out Saturday night, leaving better weather for Sunday.

The week of the 13th promises to be interesting, at least by the early forecasts. There’s a good possibility that cold Canadian air will make one last stand, with a chance of a very late freeze for the first part of the week. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are calling for colder than normal temperatures, and Accuweather is calling for lows in the mid 30s a week from Monday and Tuesday. If you were planning to get your annuals out this week, it might be a good idea to hold off until the forecast becomes clearer as the week wears on.

(more…)

For the first time since July, 2007, none of Georgia is experiencing exceptional drought conditions. The most recent Georgia drought monitor shows that 46% of the state is drought free, and that parts of southern Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett counties have improved to the severe drought category, a step up from the extreme drought conditions seen further north.

Including the 1.15 inches of rain that fell yesterday at the Atlanta airport, we are above normal for March precipitation, and only down 1.79 inches for the year.  Last year at this time, only 7.89 inches of rain had fallen in Atlanta, so we’re way ahead of last year.  Lake Lanier is responding as well, rising about a third of a foot from the rain yesterday.

The drought outlook continues to call for improvement in the parts of Alabama and Georgia that were hardest hit last year, and some improvement for  the remainder of North Georgia, South Carolina and North Caroliina.  This outlook parallels the latest monthly precipitation outlook for April:

(more…)