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FOUS11 KWBC 192006
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
406 PM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

VALID 00Z SAT MAR 20 2010 - 00Z TUE MAR 23 2010

DAYS 1 AND 2...

...SRN ROCKIES TO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

SHRTWV ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH TX ON SAT BEFORE
REACHING EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUN.  MODELS ARE NOW IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE FCST TRACK AND QPF COVERAGE DURING DAY
1.  REGION OF HIGH POST-FRONTAL RH AND RESULTING PCPN SHOULD
STRETCH FROM ERN NM TO KS AND NRN MO TONIGHT....WITH PCPN CHANGING
TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR SETTLES SEWD TONIGHT.  SNOW SHOULD INTENSIFY
NEAR THE FORMING MID LEVEL LOW ON SAT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO
WRN/NRN OK AND SERN KS...WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 8
INCH PLUS AMTS.  THE WARM GROUND WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY AT THE START OF THE EVENT.  DURING DAY 2...FORECAST
BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH OF THE DEEPENING
CIRC SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN OVER MO/AR UNTIL POSSIBLY SUN
AFTN WHEN ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING REACHES THE AREA NEARER TO THE
UPPER CENTER.  HEAVIER SNOW IS MOST LIKELY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY
OVER MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF OK AND SERN KS WHERE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY COLD IN THE STRONG COMMA HEAD FEATURE....WITH
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED 8 INCH PLUS AMTS IN THIS AREA.  THE 12Z NAM
SUPPORTS HIGHER TOTALS IN THIS AREA...BUT IS AN OUTLIER SOLN AMONG
THE LIGHTER 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND UKMET MODELS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

DAY 3...

...NORTHWEST...

A PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH STEADILY INTO THE NWRN U.S. SUN
NIGHT...REACHING THE NRN ROCKIES ON MONDAY.  THE POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM THE WA/OR CASCADES TO THE MTNS OF ID AND NWRN MT...WHERE LOW
TO MDT RISKS FOR 4 INCH PLUS AMTS ARE INDICATED.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HEDGE
$$