If it seems pretty warm out there, you’re right. Today’s high temperature of 95.1 in Lawrenceville at 2:20 PM makes it the warmest day of 2009 so far. Of course, the 93-95 degree high temperatures we’ve had for the last two weeks are 5-8 degrees above normal. In Atlanta, it’s been over ten days since the low temperature dropped below 70 degrees, another sign of a heat wave. For the month to date, Atlanta is 2.9 degrees above normal, with an average temperature of 79.5. In Lawrenceville, where nighttime temperatures don’t have the same heat island effect as Atlanta, the average is 77.4 degrees.

All of this isn’t being helped by the lack of rainfall — none here in the last two weeks. Now I know that it has rained in places around Atlanta — just not here. Rain chances increase from this afternoon to tomorrow evening, but after a cold front passes through Sunday night, it’s back to warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather for the work week.

There is a possibility that we might be seeing some of the warmest weather of this summer over the next few days. With temperatures in the mid 90s today and in the upper 90s in metro Atlanta on Friday and Saturday, we will be seeing the warmest weather since August 6th, 2008, when temperatures reached 94 at Hartsfield Airport, and 99 here at my home thermometer in Lawrenceville.

The warmest temperatures of 2008 were also recorded in June, with the high for the year of 98 on June 9th in Atlanta. Today’s record high temperature was 101 degrees, set back in 1944. A warm stretch back in 1933 set the records for Friday, Saturday and Sunday with 99, 98 and 98 degrees, so we will be coming close to breaking a temperature record.

After the official start to summer on Sunday, we’ll be in for more normal temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s predicted for next week. In the longer term, however, the trend may be towards lower then normal temperatures. The Climate Prediction Center’s July outlook released today calls for a 33% chance of cooler than normal weather over much of the Southeast, including all of Georgia. The three month outlook through September indicates equal chances of above or below normal temperatures for the east coast, except for southern Florida. Above normal precipitation is forecast in July south of an Atlanta to Columbus line, so it looks like south Georgia will continue to be wet. South-central and southeast Georgia had the most rainfall on record for the March, April and May time period.

A month after the climatologists said that the North Georgia drought was over, the state Environmental Protection Division has caught up. As of today, most watering restrictions have been lifted throughout the region. You are still limited to watering on your assigned odd-even days, either Monday, Wednesday and Saturday or Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday, but you can water any time you like.

The EPD does recommend that you not water between 10 AM and 4 PM, since during those hours more water can be lost to evaporation, making watering less useful. This is a return to level one watering restrictions. Level two restrictions, which we were under for much of 2007, limited watering to between midnight and 10 AM. We never were subjected to level 3 restrictions, which would have limited watering to a single day a week.

Before you turn on those sprinklers full blast, though, be aware that water rates have changed since the last time we were drought free. The big change is a summer surcharge for excessive water use. For example, in Gwinnett County, you could pay twice the normal rate per 1,000 gallons for amounts above 20% of your average use from January through March.

Although the official hurricane season doesn’t officially get started until Monday, June 1, the first tropical depression of the season was declared earlier today. Tropical Depression One lies over the Gulf Stream to the east of Virginia, and may develop into Tropical Storm Ana later tonight or Friday before it dissipates over the weekend. The storm is not expected to affect land.

The Weather Service released its 2009 hurricane season outlook recently, calling for a 50% chance of a normal season, a 25% chance of a below normal season, and a 25% chance of an above normal season. They estimate 9 to 14 named storms, with four to seven hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.

Meanwhile, Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi is calling for a lighter than normal hurricane season. He is predicting three storms with tropical force winds to reach the US coast, with possibly two being hurricanes and one being a major hurricane. This compares to eight storms affecting the US coast in 2008, with four hurricanes and no major hurricanes.

Storm names for 2009 are Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor and Wanda.

Keep up with tropical weather activity this season at our Tropical Center.

Compared to the past few years, the weather this spring in North Georgia has been wet. Virtually the entire state reported above-normal rainfall in April, which followed a wetter than normal March.

Some unofficial reports of rainfall totals in April were over ten inches in South Georgia, while the highest official total was 7.3 inches in Alma, over four inches above normal. Atlanta was 1.56 inches above normal for April, and Athens had 1.12 inches above normal precipitation.

May has gotten off to a wet start as well. As of May 6th, Atlanta had recorded 2.05 inches of rain, which is 1.31 inches above normal for the first week in May. With this morning’s storms and chances of more wet weather still ahead through the weekend, we are close to reaching the 2.8 inches of precipitation recorded for all of May, 2008, and will have more May rain than since at least 2004. Normal May rainfall in Atlanta is 3.95 inches for the entire month.

Lake Lanier continues to fill as well. The lake level is at 1064.95 feet at Buford Dam, 7 inches above where it was when the current rains started a week ago, and just six feet below full pool.

The latest drought outlook from the Climate Prediction Center says,

Several inches of precipitation are forecast in the short-term for the last vestiges of the once expansive drought that covered the interior Southeast. Given the expected heavy precipitation through the forthcoming weekend, and nothing indicating enhanced probabilities for significantly below-normal rainfall through the end of July, it seems likely that we will finally be able to close the books on this protracted and at one time serious, large-scale drought that has been affecting the Southeast for the last 3 years.

And, State Climatologist David Stooksbury reported earlier this week that conditions on Lakes Lanier and Hartwell have improved to mild drought from moderate drought because of the increasing lake levels. The rest of the state is drought free. He reports above normal soil moisture for most of the state, and normal to above normal stream flows. He says,

May is typically one of the drier months in Georgia. Additionally, with high temperatures routinely in the 80s and plant water use very high, moisture loss is accelerated. We normally expect the soils to start to dry out this month.

As we progress through the summer into the middle of fall, moisture loss from the soil – due to evaporation and plant use – is normally greater than rainfall. With normal weather over the next several months, Georgians can expect to see a drying of the soils. However, this is normal and does not mean that Georgia is heading back into a drought.