The August heat wave looks like it will go on through Thursday, but at least here at my house, today was the warmest day so far in 2008. It got up to 99 degrees (well, 98.7) at 2:10 PM, topping the 97.1 reached on both June 8 and July 10. It could have been worse though: with the dew point in the low 60s, the heat index was only 102 degrees.

Temperatures reached the century mark today in Augusta, Milledgeville, Savannah, Athens and Vidalia. For whatever reason, it stayed a bit cooler in Atlanta today, with highs only in the low 90s. Tomorrow, the humidity goes back up, and by tomorrow afternoon, the approaching front will bring a chance of rainfall, and at least a temporary end to the excessive heat we’ve been seeing recently.

Hurricane Forecast Update

We’re about ready to get into the strongest part of the hurricane season, from mid-August through the end of October.  The folks at Colorado State University have updated their tropical forecast and are now calling for more storms than they predicted back in April and repeated in June.

Instead of 15 named storms, the predicted total has been upped to 17, with nine hurricanes, instead of eight. Five of those should be intense, compared to four predicted previously.  Part of the reason for upping the predictions is the number of storms we’ve seen through July, with four named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane. That doesn’t count Edouard, which was the first storm in August.  According to the forecast, only 2005 (the year of Katrina) and 1916 have had more active pre-August tropical activity.

There’s a 2/3 chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in the US during the rest of the season, with a better than 40% chance of a storm striking either the east coast or the gulf coast.  Overall, the forecasters are predicting a tropical season that is 190% as active than the average season from 1950-2000.

In addition to providing forecasts for the rest of the season, the Dr. Gray and his team are providing a forecast for August tropical activity. If they are right, we will have four storms, three of which will become hurricanes, and one intense hurricane this month. With Edouard already occuring, that’s the non-hurricane storm, if their forecast is correct. They will also issue forecasts for September and October at the beginning of those months.

The June heat wave continued to set records today throughout the east coast. Here are some of the new records:

Atlanta: 98 degrees, with the old record of 97 set in 1995. In addition, this morning’s low temperature of 76 was warmer than the previous high minimum temperature for June 9th of 75 degrees.
Athens: 102 degrees, besting the previous record of 99, set in 1926.
Columbus: 97 ties the record set back in 1986
Macon: 100 ties the previous record from 1954.

Other locations in Georgia, including Augusta, Gainesville, Albany and Savannah also saw highs in the upper 90s, but failed to break any records. Here at my unofficial weather station, I recorded 97 degrees around 2:30 PM. Additional records from around the eastern seaboard:

Raleigh, North Carolina - 99 degrees breaks previous record of 98 set in 1999
Richmond, Virginia - Tied record high of 98 set in 1999.
Atlantic City NJ - 98 degrees beats previous record of 96 set in 1984
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania - Tied record high of 95 set in 1999
Hartford, Connecticut - Tied record high of 96 set in 1984
Providence, Rhode Island - 97 degrees tops previous record 95 set in 1984
New York LaGuardia Airport high temperature of 99 tops previous record of 95 from 1984
Newark, New Jersey ties old record of 99 set in 1933

(more…)

Today’s temperatures, averaging more then ten degrees above normal, broke records across Georgia and the eastern seaboard, as the heat wave we’re in continues. Here are some temperatures from around the area, along with the record temperature for June 8th:

Athens - High 101 Old Record 96
Columbus - High 97 Old Record 96
Macon - High 98 Ties Old Record
Savannah - High 97 Record 100
Augusta - High 100 Record 103
Atlanta - 95 Record 96
Gainesville - 95 Record 97
Charlotte, NC - 99 Ties Old Record
Asheville, NC - 93 Old Record 91
Raleigh, NC - 101 Old Record 100
Wilmington, NC - 98 Old Record 96
Greenville, SC - 100 Ties Old Record
Richmond, VA - 100 Old Record 99
Burlington VT - 91 Ties Old Record

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As much of the southeast US enjoys record setting temperatures in December, maybe it’s only appropriate that a late subtropical storm make an appearance in the Caribbean Sea.  Subtropical Storm Olga is being tracked by the National Hurricane Center, and is making landfall over the Dominican Republic:

Don’t expect any drought relief from Olga, though.  Although she could drop up to a foot of rain over Santo Domingo, by Wednesday afternoon the storm will have become a tropical depression, and the remnant low will be over the Yucatan peninsula by the weekend.

Meanwhile, metro Atlanta is enjoying its third straight day of record warmth.  With the temperature already at 75 degrees, we’ve broken the old record for December 11th of 73, set back in 1985.  Yesterday’s high of 77 degrees broke the old record of 74, which was set in 1972, and Sunday’s high of 76 topped the previous record of 71 degrees in 1978.

Look for more warm temperatures through Thursday, when the high pressure system holding off the storms to the north will start to break down and bring in at least some rain.  By the weekend, it will feel more like winter, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Any benefit from the more or less normal rainfall seen in Georgia in July has now evaporated, and the latest drought monitor shows 70 Georgia counties as being in an exceptional drought, seen only every 100 years. Another 40 Georgia counties are in extreme drought conditions, expected to be seen only once every 50 years.

The percentage of Georgia land area in exceptional drought conditions rose from 26.9 to 39.1 in the last week, as record-breaking temperatures and lack of any sort of rain has taken its toll. River flows are also down, with the Chattooga in north Georgia at one of its lowest levels in 67 years of recordkeeping.



The image to the right shows the estimated drought conditions in the eastern half of the United States one month ago, on July 24th, compared to this week. While recent storms in the midwest have reduced drought conditions there, the persistent high pressure ridge over the southeast that arrived at the beginning of August has intensified the drought.

The good news is that the ridge is breaking down, and the fall weather patterns already affecting the northern states are also beginning to affect the south. While Thursday’s high temperature of 98 at the Atlanta airport broke the previous record of 97, set in 1983, a wave of thunderstorms in the early evening brought relief to at least some parts of north Georgia.

There’s a chance of storms each day for the next week, and the chance of rain is likely to increase as we move into the Labor Day weekend. However, with the equivalent of 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch of soil moisture being lost per day due to plant use and evaporation, it’s going to take some tropical weather to make a big difference in the drought levels. Although the tropics are going to be quiet for the next few days, the strongest part of the tropical season will continue for the next six weeks or so.