I got a comment from Matt asking how we’re doing with the drought, given the recent rainfall, and rather than answering his question in another comment, I decided to do a new post.

In reality, with 9.79 inches of Atlanta is still behind what would be ‘normal’ rainfall by 2.44 inches as of yesterday, and some of that deficit has been reduced by today’s storms.  However, we are doing better than as of this time last year.  In 2007, Atlanta had recorded only 7.71 inches by March 14th, 2.08 inches less than in 2008.  In Gainesville, which has had 10.74 inches of rain so far, they are ahead by 2.17 inches.  Here in Lawrenceville, I’m only showing .86 inches more rain than this time last year, but keep in mind I don’t have an ‘official’ rain gauge.

Even though actual rainfall varies across the metro area, it’s probably safe to say that we’re two inches ahead of where we were this time last year.  Plus, in 2007, the second half of March ended up being rain-free, so by the end of this month, we are likely to be even further ahead of 2007.

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With both Atlanta and Athens, Georgia on track to record their driest years ever, it’s becoming ever more important that the area receives sufficient rainfall during the winter months. Continued lack of precipitation could mean that drought conditions in 2008 will be worse than in 2007.

Georgia State Climatologist David Stooksbury writes that while recent rains have helped some in increasing groundwater and stream flows, it’s by no means a break in the drought.

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I hope you’ve had a chance go go out and enjoy the warmer than normal temperatures we’ve had this week. We’ve seen temperatures about ten degrees above normal, and it looks like temperatures could get into the low 70s over the weekend.

Of course, it can’t go on forever. The pattern is likely to change a week from now, after a good chance of rainy weather midweek next week. After that, look for temperatures approaching normal to slightly below normal through the end of the year.

If you want to get a peek at what we could see for the rest of the winter, check out this graphic. It shows the expected deviations from normal for temperatures for the next six months, based on the CFS climate modeling system developed by the National Weather Service.

The models show a colder than normal December in Georgia–we are running about 3 degrees cooler than normal this month– followed by a normal to slightly cooler than normal January, a better chance for a cold February, a normal March, and a cold April. While these aren’t official forecasts, they do give some indications of what models say we’ll see this winter.

Even though the winter solstice is one week away, today was the first day since last July that the sun set later in the day than it did yesterday. Although we’ll see later sunrises for another three weeks, we’ll gain about ten minutes of evening light between now and the first of the year.