Severe Weather Outlook for March 20, 2010

This page has information on possible thunderstorms, high winds, or tornadoes for the next 24 hours as provided by the Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. You can also view the possibility of severe weather for the next two days. The map and discussion are updated several times a day.

Refer to the text discussion below the map for descriptions of possible severe weather threats.

Related Pages: Mesoscale Discussions | Current Severe Watches | Recent Severe Weather Activity
Excessive Rainfall Probabilities | Tropical Weather Outlook | US Warnings and Advisories

Hazardous Weather Forecast Maps:

Severe Weather Discussion:

000
ACUS01 KWNS 200453
SWODY1
SPC AC 200451

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE FROM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SWRN
CO/NWRN NM.  THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD TO RED RIVER
VALLEY VICINITY SPS BY 21/00Z...THEN DEEPEN FURTHER BEFORE CROSSING
TXK AREA NEAR END OF PERIOD.  

AS THIS OCCURS...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL MO TO SRN OK
AND W-CENTRAL TX IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SEWD OVER TX AND NWRN
GULF...REACHING AL COAST OR WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 21/12Z. 
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY IN PERIOD NEAR TXK THEN MOVE
NEWD AND DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY OVER AR...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY AS
PROPORTIONALLY DEEPENING MID-UPPER VORTEX APCHS.  

...W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER DELTA REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM INVOF COLD FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS ERN THROUGH S-CENTRAL TX BY MIDDAY IN CST...AS
FOREGOING DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING ACT TO
ELIMINATE SBCINH.  TSTMS THEN WILL MOVE EWD AND SEWD OVER SE
TX...WRN/SRN LA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF GULF.  IN TX REGIME OF COOLER
MIDLEVEL TEMPS AND STEEPER OVERALL LAPSE RATES...PRESENCE OF MRGL
LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND RESULTS OF HAIL MODEL APPLIED
TO ETA-KF/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST SOME MRGL SVR HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTS TO NEAR SVR LIMITS.  WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES AND MORE DEEPLY MOIST/NEAR-NEUTRAL PROFILES WITH EWD EXTENT
SUGGEST DECLINING HAIL POTENTIAL...THOUGH STG GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LA AND PERHAPS COASTAL MS/AL.  

PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS ENTIRE WRN-CENTRAL
GULF COAST CORRIDOR WILL BE WEAK BUOYANCY RELATED TO INCOMPLETENESS
OF ANTECEDENT MARINE MODIFICATION OF INFLOW-LAYER TRAJECTORIES. 
ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH
EWD EXTENT...DECREASE IN LAPSE RATES WILL OFFSET THAT EFFECT ENOUGH
TO KEEP CAPE WEAK.  BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
ELEVATED WITH NWD/INLAND EXTENT.  FURTHERMORE...COLD FRONT WILL
OUTRUN NARROW PLUME OF MID-60S F SFC DEW POINTS THAT SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRIEFLY BRUSHING BVE AREA...WITH MOST SUPPORTIVE
AIR MASS FOR SVR REMAINING OVER OPEN GULF WATERS.  ACCORDINGLY
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE MAXIMIZED BRIEFLY AROUND 500
J/KG OVER TX COASTAL PLAIN JUST BEFORE FROPA...AND LESS THAN 300
J/KG OVER LAND FROM LCH AREA EWD.  THEREFORE...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS
TOO MRGL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 03/20/2010

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