Severe Weather Outlook for May 13, 2008

This page has information on possible thunderstorms, high winds, or tornadoes for the next 24 hours, along with a map of current thunderstorm and tornado watches, as provided by the Weather Service Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. You can also view the possibility of severe weather for the next two days. The map and discussion are updated several times a day.

Refer to the text discussion below the map for descriptions of possible severe weather threats.

Related Pages: Mesoscale Discussions | Recent Severe Weather Activity | Excessive Rainfall Probabilities
Tropical Weather Outlook | US Warnings and Advisories

Hazardous Weather Forecast Maps:

Severe Weather Discussion:

000
ACUS01 KWNS 130608
SWODY1
SPC AC 130606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN IL/SRN IA/MO/SERN KS
SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX TO THE RIO GRANDE...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF A NRN AND A SRN STREAM
SHORT-WAVE FEATURE -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH TIME.  A
WIDE SWATH OF MODERATELY-STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECEDE THE
UPPER TROUGH...ATOP SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE NWD.  AS A
RESULT...A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EVOLVE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT THIS PERIOD.

...WRN IL/MO AND VICINITY SSWWD INTO TX...
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/AR AND VICINITY...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION.  AS DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING
COMBINE TO ALLOW AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME...A FEW
STRONGER/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE LATER IN THE DAY AS CAP WEAKENS
INVOF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...INITIALLY FROM SERN KS AND INTO
CENTRAL OK.  AS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENS...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO
SWD.  CAP SHOULD HOLD A BIT LONGER FURTHER S...BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD ACROSS TX ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...FLOW EXPECTED TO VEER/INCREASE
WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST.  GREATEST THREAT SHOULD RESIDE FROM SWRN
MO ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK AND WRN AR INTO N TX...WHERE MOST
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL SHIFT EWD/SEWD...AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES.
WHILE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SOME SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ERN TX AND INTO AR WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LINGER.

..GOSS.. 05/13/2008

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