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Lawrenceville Weather

Severe Weather Outlook for July 31, 2016

This page has information on possible severe weather on Sunday as provided by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. You can also view outlooks for today and tomorrow. This map and discussion are updated early each morning.

Refer to the text discussion below the map for descriptions of possible severe weather threats.

Hazardous Weather Forecast Maps:

Convective Outlook

Severe Weather Discussion:

367 
ACUS03 KWNS 290517
SWODY3
SPC AC 290516

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...SPREADING
INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AFTER DARK.

...DAKOTAS.

STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT INLAND
ACROSS BC INTO SK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  SRN INFLUENCE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE NRN PLAINS LATE AS 500MB SPEED MAX...NEAR
50KT...TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS MT INTO WRN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 
AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE MID 90S SCT TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL FORM WITHIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS
COULD BE NOTED.  LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE AND THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE CLUSTERING AND PERHAPS AN MCS WILL
EVOLVE AFTER DARK WITHIN FAVORED WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

...ELSEWHERE...

POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY THE ERN CONUS WHERE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCT CONVECTION DRIVEN STRONGLY BY DIURNAL INFLUENCES. 
SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LONGER-LIVED STORMS.  EVEN
SO...FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS
AT THIS TIME.

PERSISTENT ESELY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN AZ WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR
ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVING TOWARD
THE LOWER DESERTS.  IF DAY2 CONVECTION DOES NOT CONTAMINATE THE AIR
MASS ACROSS THIS REGION MRGL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE WARRANTED.

..DARROW.. 07/29/2016

$$