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Lawrenceville Weather

Severe Weather Outlook for June 1, 2016

This page has information on possible severe weather on Wednesday as provided by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. You can also view outlooks for today and tomorrow. This map and discussion are updated early each morning.

Refer to the text discussion below the map for descriptions of possible severe weather threats.

Hazardous Weather Forecast Maps:

Convective Outlook

Severe Weather Discussion:

466 
ACUS03 KWNS 300730
SWODY3
SPC AC 300729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN TX INTO
SERN NM...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
A CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD
DURING THE PERIOD AS STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES.  A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO NERN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN SWWD TOWARDS THE MO/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE.  WEAK
BUOYANCY /250-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SW TO
NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT /DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEG F OVER NRN LOWER MICH
TO THE MID 60S OVER S-CNTRL IL/.  SCATTERED STORMS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND ZIPPER SWWD NEAR THE BOUNDARY. 
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...SRN PORTIONS OF TX INTO SERN NM...
MODELS SHOW THE SW TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN SW TX IN PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H5 LOW/TROUGH.  THE
UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE BUT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS VIA WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.  A MARGINAL RISK FOR
WIND/HAIL MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...SERN STATES...
A MORE SPACIOUS AREA OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY.  STORMS MAY PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOP NEAR SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH TUESDAY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NEAR THE NERN GULF COAST AND SRN GA/NRN FL
VICINITY.  WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW-MOVING STORMS
BUT APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A LARGER
RESERVOIR OF BUOYANCY COMPARED TO TUESDAY.  H5 TEMPS AROUND -10 DEG
C AND SURFACE TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 90 DEG F WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
BUOYANCY ACROSS A SIZABLE AREA.  HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS
UNRESOLVABLE ATTM PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF 5-PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS YIELDING POCKETS OF
WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..SMITH.. 05/30/2016

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