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Lawrenceville Weather

Severe Weather Outlook for December 5, 2016

This page has information on possible severe weather on Monday as provided by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. You can also view outlooks for today and tomorrow. This map and discussion are updated early each morning.

Refer to the text discussion below the map for descriptions of possible severe weather threats.

Hazardous Weather Forecast Maps:

Convective Outlook

Severe Weather Discussion:

984 
ACUS03 KWNS 030825
SWODY3
SPC AC 030824

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
WILL EJECT THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY. AT LEAST WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND THE CYCLONE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...UNDERGOING
MODEST DEEPENING IN THE PROCESS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
FROM THE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THE MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THIS WILL BE DUE IN PART TO NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
TRAJECTORIES FROM A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ONGOING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE NEAR-SURFACE
STABLE LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST A WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
WILL MOVE INLAND LATER MONDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE DEEP-LAYER WINDS
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
PROMOTING INLAND ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE
THREAT EXPANDING FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LARGE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL FOSTER A RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF THREAT REMAINS DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WHICH CURRENTLY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.

..DIAL.. 12/03/2016

$$