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Lawrenceville Weather

Severe Weather Outlook for June 28, 2016

This page has information on possible severe weather on Tuesday as provided by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. You can also view outlooks for today and tomorrow. This map and discussion are updated early each morning.

Refer to the text discussion below the map for descriptions of possible severe weather threats.

Hazardous Weather Forecast Maps:

Convective Outlook

Severe Weather Discussion:

136 
ACUS03 KWNS 260723
SWODY3
SPC AC 260722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

....CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY FROM THE NRN PLAINS
SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS SLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL HELP TO SETUP A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WRN KS NWD INTO SWRN SD ALONG
WHICH SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. IN
RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS INCLUDING THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY NEAR THE WY-MT-SD
STATELINE INTERSECTION. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SSEWD
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION.

DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED FOR RAPID CITY
SHOW SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS WITH STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NE WY AND WRN SD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
WITH CELLS GRADUALLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE WITH COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. IN THIS CASE...A TRANSITION TO A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT MAY TAKE PLACE BY EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 06/26/2016

$$