Excessive Rainfall Discussion:
464
FOUS30 KWBC 260103
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
902 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...VALID 03Z SUN MAY 26 2013 - 00Z MON MAY 27 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
EST 15 NE OLZ 15 S RPJ 20 SSW IKK 20 W AAA 35 WSW UIN
10 NNW LWD 15 ESE FET 20 E OLU 35 NW OFK 40 SSW MHE 20 ENE 9V9
PIR 20 WSW D07 25 WNW 2WX 20 ENE BHK 25 NW DIK 25 E KHZE
40 SW K46D 10 WSW K2D5 20 NNW ATY 25 NNE BKX EST.
...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
UPDATED PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO EXPAND AREA NWWD
INTO SW/SCNTL ND AND MUCH OF NRN AND ERN SD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED EXPANDED AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DVLPG OVER PARTS OF SE
MT INTO AREAS OF NW SD AND SW/SCNTL ND TO THE NORTH OF A NW/SE
ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL BNDRY. HI CAPE AIR OVER PARTS OF ERN MT/WRN
SD BEING LIFTED OVER FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STG
TSTM DVLPMENT ACRS THIS REGION THIS EVENING. THERE ARE INDICTIONS
BY SEVERAL HI RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL RUNS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY COULD DVLP INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THRU
UPR RIDGE..AND DVLP SELY OVERNIGHT IN FAVORABLE SFC/85H LOW LEVEL
JET EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/IA. SOME CELL
REGENERATION IS PSBL OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS BECOMING ORIENTED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT..SUGGESTING SOME TRAINING POTNL AS WELL. OUT OF RESPECT
FOR SOME OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES SOME LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES AND RELATIVELY LOW FF
GUIDANCE VALUES IN SOME SPOTS..FELT EXPANDING SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
WARRANTED. SULLIVAN
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDC THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY CNVCTV RAINS AGAIN
OVR THE UPPER MIDWEST TNGT AS A STG MSTR FLUX INTO AN E/W ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT IS LIFTED BY PIECES OF ENERGY MOVG THRU THE
CNTRL U.S. UPPER LVL RIDGE PSN. BROADLY DIV FLOW WILL BE THERE TO
ENHANCE THE LIFTING PROCESS WHILE A STG LLVL SLY FLOW CONTS TO
ADVECT HI MSTR NWD INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LATITUDINAL
PLACEMENT NOT THE BEST HENCE THE RATHER LARGE AREA AS
DEPICTED..PARTICULARLY AS MESOSCALE FORCING PARTIALLY DETERMINES
PLACEMENT AS MCS DVLPMNT OCCURS. AMTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
AN HOUR OR TWO APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH TOTALS OF 4.00 INCHES PSBL OVR
ISOLD SPOTS.
KORTY
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