HPC Excessive Rainfall Probabilities

Excessive Rainfall Discussion:

101 
FOUS30 KWBC 190552
QPFERD
 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010
 
...VALID 06Z FRI MAR 19 2010 - 12Z SAT MAR 20 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

 
...NWRN TX...
AREA OF LWR FFG OVR NWRN TX...COMBINED WITH PTNL FOR A PD OF SLOW
MOVG CNVCTN WL INCRS THREAT OF XCSV RNFL LATER TNGT. MDLS ARE ALL
SHOWG CNVCTN DLVPG OVR THE SRN PLNS LATER TDA WITH THE CNVTN LKLY
TO BCM BETTER ORGANIZED TNGT AS STGR HGT FALLS PUSH INTO THE
REGION. UPR FLOW WL CONT TO BACK WITH STG DIFL AND A DECENT UPR
JET COUPLET FORMG OVR THE REGION THAT WL PROVIDE STGR DEEP LYRD
LIFT. MDLS SHOW A ZONE OF HIER INSTBLTY INTO THIS REGION WHERE IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A TRIPLE PT LOW ALNG THE CDFNT/DRYLN
INTERSECTION. PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOW CELLS MOTIONS COULD BE SLOW
FOR SVRL HRS. PWS ARE FCST TO BUILD TO ARND ONE INCH...WHICH WL BE
1-2 STDS ABV NRML. IN-HOUSE EXPERIMENTAL SPATIAL DENSITY PLOTS OF
HI-RES NMM PCPN COMPARED TO CURRENT FFG SHOWS AN INCRSD THREAT OVR
NWRN TX LATER TNGT FOR RNFL EXCEEDG THE FFG.

ECKERT
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