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SPC Wildfire Outlook for May 23, 2015

Fire Outlook

Day 1 SPC Wild Fire Monitored Area Discussion

235 
FNUS21 KWNS 230802
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD TO THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
WILL LIKEWISE MOVE EWD TO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY THIS EVENING...
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. AND ADJACENT CANADIAN
PROVINCES MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. 

AT THE SFC...A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE ERN U.S. SHOULD
SHIFT OFFSHORE TO THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OCCURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN OVER SERN CO BY THIS
EVENING...WHILE A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW STRETCHES
SWD ACROSS ERN NM. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY ACROSS THE CONUS
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX BEHIND
THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND AND PART OF MI.

...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FOR PORTIONS OF
S-CNTRL NM/FAR W TX TODAY. DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD PROMOTE ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO THE SFC. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 15-20
MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY
IN THE 8-15 PERCENT RANGE TO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORECAST WINDS AND MARGINAL FUEL
DRYNESS PRECLUDES A CRITICAL AREA. WHILE ELEVATED METEOROLOGICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL ALSO BE MET TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF ERN
NM...PRIOR RAINFALL HAS RENDERED FUELS UNRECEPTIVE FOR THIS
REGION...AND THEREFORE THE ELEVATED AREA DOES NOT INCLUDE ERN NM.

...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
THE ONGOING ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A LARGER
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING VT/NH...DOWN EAST MAINE...MUCH OF
MA...FAR ERN NY...AND FAR NRN CT...WHERE A RELATIVE LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF DRIER FINE FUELS. BEHIND AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE...A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. AN ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENCOURAGE WLY SFC WINDS OF
10-15 MPH...WITH STRONGER GUSTS...ACROSS THE ELEVATED AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...DIURNAL MIXING
SHOULD PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR MORE THAN THREE
HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING...RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF STRONGER EXPECTED SFC
WINDS ALONG WITH VEGETATIVE GREENUP PRECLUDES A CRITICAL DELINEATION
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME.

...PART OF THE NRN LOWER PENINSULA OF MI...
SIMILAR TO NEW ENGLAND...A DRY...POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. THERE
HAS ALSO BEEN A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF MI
OVER THE LAST SEVEN DAYS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS
THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI...RH VALUES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
A MODEST INCREASE IN WLY SFC WINDS TO 10-15 MPH IS ALSO EXPECTED...
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE REDUCED RH SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GLEASON.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...