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SPC Wildfire Outlook for August 20, 2014

Fire Outlook

Day 1 SPC Wild Fire Monitored Area Discussion

720 
FNUS21 KWNS 191541
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VALID 191700Z - 201200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

..ROGERS.. 08/19/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0315 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE JUST
OFF THE CNTRL-CA COAST. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SLOWLY
SWD AND THEN SEWD BEFORE MOVING TOWARD SRN CA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH TO ITS N OVER SWRN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE
NWRN CONUS. DOWNSTREAM...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
THE N-CNTRL STATES...WHILE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

...PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL ORE...ERN/CNTRL WA -- STRONG WIND/LOW RH
POTENTIAL...
MODESTLY ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO YIELD WLY TO NWLY
SFC WINDS OF 15 TO LOCALLY AROUND 20 MPH /WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS/. AS RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...ANY INSTANCES OF
CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL...BRIEF...AND
SPOTTY.

...PORTIONS OF NRN CA...SRN ORE...NWRN NV -- DRY-THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT AMIDST DIURNALLY ENHANCED
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT/BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED DRY-THUNDERSTORM
RISK WILL EXIST OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN CA...WHERE GPS DATA
INDICATE PW AROUND 0.60-0.75 INCH AMIDST VERY DRY FUELS --
WARRANTING ISOLATED DRY-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REGION...THE RISK FOR PURELY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TOO
LIMITED FOR FIRE-WEATHER DELINEATION OWING TO /1/ RELATIVELY HIGHER
PW INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS...AND/OR /2/ RELATIVELY
LESS-DRY FUELS BEING LESS RECEPTIVE FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...