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SPC Wildfire Outlook for May 25, 2016

Fire Outlook

Day 1 SPC Wild Fire Monitored Area Discussion

308 
FNUS21 KWNS 251522
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

VALID 251700Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN
AZ...ERN/CNTRL/SRN NM...FAR W TX...

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE NEEDED. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 05/25/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0239 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING WIND-SPEED
MAXIMUM WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN STATES. ENHANCED
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH TO THE N SIDE
OF A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WAVY...
N/S-ORIENTED DRYLINE WILL OSCILLATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND VICINITY.

...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ...ERN/CNTRL/SRN NM...FAR W TX...
TO THE W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL
MANIFEST ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT AT THE SFC TO SUPPORT SWLY TO WSWLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. AMIDST A DRY ANTECEDENT BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
GIVEN AREAS OF DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENCOURAGED WARMING/DRYING...RH AROUND
5-12 PERCENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS AND DRY
FUELS TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SURROUNDING ELEVATED AREA...WHERE CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY
STRONG WINDS OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS
LIMITED IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW DESPITE
ANTICIPATED LOW RH.

ALSO...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD EXTEND
TO THE E OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS -- INTO PARTS OF THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...TX S PLAINS...AND VICINITY. HOWEVER...UNFAVORABLE FUEL
CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD OWING TO FUEL GREEN-UP PRECLUDES
FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THESE AREAS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$