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SPC Wildfire Outlook for August 29, 2016

Fire Outlook

Day 1 SPC Wild Fire Monitored Area Discussion

179 
FNUS21 KWNS 291607
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

VALID 291700Z - 301200Z

A MINOR NEWD EXPANSION HAS BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING ELEVATED AREA
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. THE LACK OF EVEN STRONGER
EXPECTED WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
DELINEATION. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

..GLEASON.. 08/29/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0317 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF NRN CA AND ORE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN SOME
PORTIONS OF THE NWRN CONUS...SUPPORTING AN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
RISK. ELSEWHERE...THE OVERLAP OF ENHANCED WINDS/LOW RH IS PRESENTLY
UNLIKELY -- THUS MINIMIZING THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK.

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN ORE...NERN CA...NRN NV...SWRN ID...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING INTO STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO SUPPORT SWLY TO WSWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-18 MPH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH
AREAS OF DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENHANCED WARMING/DRYING...IS EXPECTED TO
YIELD MINIMUM RH AROUND 5-12 PERCENT AMIDST AREAS OF DRY FUELS. AS A
RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...A MORE PROMINENT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS IN SOME
AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...WHICH WILL
MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

...SRN CA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...SRN KERN...AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT MODESTLY TIGHTENS YIELDING
LOCALIZED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH AND RH AROUND 10-20
PERCENT. WITHOUT A LARGER-SCALE/MORE ROBUST TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PRESENTLY
FORECAST TO BE TOO SPOTTY FOR FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$