It looks like we could have a record cold temperature this evening/Wednesday morning.  The current record low for April 30th is 40 degrees set back in 1969.  Forecasters are calling for a low of 36 in Lawrenceville, but only 42 for Hartsfield Airport, so it’s going to be close.  The Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for most of the state north of Macon.

The cold air is caused by Canadian high pressure sweeping into the area following last weekend’s rain.  Usually these cold blasts end around the first of April because developing high pressure off the Atlantic Coast (the proverbial Bermuda High) strengthens enough to counteract the approach of the cold front from the north.  Between this round and the cold weather back in the middle of the month, we’re likely to end April with below normal temperatures for the month.  You can be glad you’re not in Chicago or as far south as West Virginia, which have had a late season snowfall.

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Despite a string of several rainy days this month, it looks like January’s rainfall is going to be less than normal, and that isn’t helping the ongoing drought. As of today, the rainfall gauge at Hartsfield Airport stands at 2.24 inches, or 45% of the just over five inches we would expect in a normal January.

Athens is at 43% of normal, and Gainesville is at 34% of normal of what is normally one of the wettest months of the year. With normal rainfall in December, and the colder temperatures causing less evaporation, drought conditions have loosened slightly, as seen in the latest drought map to the right, but there is concern that real problems could arise again next summer.

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With both Atlanta and Athens, Georgia on track to record their driest years ever, it’s becoming ever more important that the area receives sufficient rainfall during the winter months. Continued lack of precipitation could mean that drought conditions in 2008 will be worse than in 2007.

Georgia State Climatologist David Stooksbury writes that while recent rains have helped some in increasing groundwater and stream flows, it’s by no means a break in the drought.

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Georgia State Climatologist David Stooksbury held a press conference today in Athens to discuss the latest Georgia drought conditions, and to explain what he thinks might occur weather-wise over the winter and spring of 2008. Much of what might happen through the next six months depends on the strength of the developing La Nina, including the chances of being able to refill, at least partially, Lakes Lanier and Allatoona.

There is now general agreement that La Nina conditions are developing in the Pacific. La Nina, and her partner El Nino, are descriptions of the two phases of the warmth of the Pacific Ocean surface temperatures compared to normal. In El Nino conditions, temperatures are warmer, while the reverse is true for La Nina. Most climate observers feel that La Nina conditions strengthened in September.

In a press release accompanying the news conference, Stooksbury said,

“The effects of the La Niña pattern differ with its strength. These differences are critical across north and central Georgia, potentially having major impacts on the current drought and the region’s ability to recover this winter and spring.”

If the La Nina conditions remain weak, then there is actually a greater chance of precipitation across extremely north Georgia, and normal precipitation across the piedmont area. In a moderate to strong La Nina, the chance of more than usual precipitation will be limited to the extreme northwest corner of the state. In either case, it’s likely to be warmer and drier over the southern half of the state. You can see the impacts in the image to the right (click on it for a larger version.)

We had best be hoping for a weak La Nina pattern. In the words of Stooksbury,

“If a moderate La Niña pattern develops, there is a high likelihood that north and west Georgia won’t be able to recover from the drought this winter.

The extreme- to exceptional-drought regions of the state may muddle through the winter and early spring. But without significant recharge of the soil moisture, groundwater, streams and reservoirs, conditions next summer could become catastrophic.”

Some of North Georgia got some welcome rain on Tuesday, as the front ahead of the low pressure system moved across the state yesterday afternoon. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded .97 inches of precipitation yesterday, with most of the rain coming between 6 and 7 PM. That’s the most rain recorded here in a single day since back on August 24th, two months ago. As of now, a total of 1.3 inches of rain has fallen here from this system. By the way, the runoff from my roof was enough to fill a 250 gallon storage tank I installed and attached to two downspouts.

Other parts of the state have seen varying amounts. Here are some rainfall numbers from yesterday:

Atlanta Hartsfield: .56 inches
Alpharetta: .84 inches
Allatoona Dam: .66 inches
Athens: .27 inches
Cleveland: .38 inches
Cumming: .30 inches
Gainesville: .16 inches
Helen: .55 inches
Rome: .62 inches

Overall, it looks like there might have been less rain in the northeast part of the state containing the Lanier basin than here, but it’s probably going to be more useful to look at the storm total precipitation - rainfall today is likely to occur in the Georgia mountains. That being said, it looks like the bulk of the precipitation is over with from this system.

Water Restrictions Update

Ever since the state started level 4 water restrictions late last month, state EPD Director Carol Couch has been researching recommendations to further reduce water usage, with a report expected to be given to Governor Perdue this week. That report has been issued, and the result is that the Governor has ordered all water suppliers to reduce consumption in their systems by 10% from their average usage last winter, beginning November 1st. Systems out of compliance will face as of yet unspecified fines.

While some of the usual suspects have decried the move by the Governor as showing a lack of leadership, in the long run, it moves the responsibility for deciding how to allocate water usage to the local level, where specific needs can be evaluated within the city or county, and decisions can be made that will ultimately affect the economic well being of that county. Did you really want some minion in the state EPD to decide on further water restrictions that might be appropriate for, let’s say Atlanta, but don’t fit the needs of a county like Gwinnett or Hall?

Meanwhile, state climatologist David Stooksbury is holding a press conference in Athens tomorrow morning to discuss the current drought situation, and the long range outlook for winter and spring. I look forward to hearing what he has to say.