A while ago, I mentioned that I would be improving the capabilities of the Tropics section of the website. This has been continuing over the past few weeks, and as of this evening, I’ve added support for the display of Tropical Invests. As it so happens, there are a number of active invests right now, which you can see in this map of the Atlantic Tropical Basin, or in the map below, which isn’t live:

An invest is a low pressure system that hasn’t yet developed into a tropical depression, but is of interest, because it could. Think of it as a ’storm of interest’ that the Hurricane Center is paying attention to to see if it will develop into anything. For example, Invest 90L is the system that’s brought the rain this week to North Georgia, but is unlikely to develop into a storm. However Invest 92L could well develop into a tropical storm or worse, depending on exactly where it goes.

You can view a map of an invest’s path, and you can also view what forecast models predict the storm’s path will be.

It’s been almost two weeks since I’ve had a chance to post some weather news. This time of year is pretty slow as far as weather goes … it’s a little too early for any real tropical weather activity, and except for the occasional thunderstorm, the forecast is typically hot and humid.

But, the weather does move in patterns, and now it looks like we’re back into the same type of weather we saw in late May, which you may remember was highlighted by a lack of rainfall, with high pressure off the Atlantic keeping any moisture well to our west.

We got somewhat of a break from the dry pattern as the first half of the month ended, although it took an unusual storm from the northeast to do it. And, even then, rainfall was spotty, depending on whether a thunderstorm passed through your neighborhood. Since the first of the week, we’ve seen temperatures in the 90s and low dewpoints, which makes outdoor activity bearable, but keeps the raindrops away.

The Weather Service issued its forecast for July, and the three month outlook for July through September last week, and as indicated by the title of this post, for the Southeast, it’s likely to be hot and dry. July’s outlook proffers warmer than normal temperatures for the east and west coasts, and cooler than normal weather for the nation’s midsection. The Plains states are likely to be the only place in the country with more than average rainfall, although there’s an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation everywhere else except for the mountain west.

The three month outlook amplifies the heat, especially in the southwest. Most of the eastern part of the country has a 40% likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures. Expected tropical weather brings a better chance of rain form much of the east coast during the latter half of the summer.

Tropical storm Barry, along with the recent rains further north have provided some drought relief, particularly for south Georgia and Florida. At right is the drought outlook from mid-May, and the latest outlook, issued last Thursday.

While the portion of the map showing a chances of improvement keeps moving north and west, the drought is spreading north as well, with much of Ohio and Indiana moving into a persistent drought. While I wish no ill will towards our friends in the rust belt, perhaps this movement of the center of the drought northward might mean some relief for the southeast.

Maps Update

You might have noticed the new 12 hour regional forecast on the home page, as well as in the map section of the site. I’ve added the ability to click on the map to view a seven day forecast for the location clicked on, much the same way as clicking on a weather warning map displays active warnings for that location. The forecast map, along with many others, can now be animated, showing the changes in the weather over a several day period.

I spent a busy weekend by the computer, making some updates to the site. You’ll notice a few changes to the menus that make it easier to get forecasts for different locations, and get at the information you want.

The big change, however, is the addition of high-quality satellite images to the site:

In addition to the enhanced infrared United States satellite image shown above, images are available for nine regions, and every state. You’ll see the Georgia satellite on the home page, for example (assuming that there are no warnings, and it’s not raining). You can also access all the images here.

There are still a few things to add, including the 5 hour and 12 hour animations of the satellite images. I hope to get them in over the next week or so.

This morning’s low of 30 degrees was the coldest so far in March. It comes nowhere near the record for March 18th of 20 degrees, set back in 1902. This morning was the worst of the cold, and temperatures should be moderating back to normal early this week, with highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 40s by Tuesday.

However, the cold weather may return just in time for what would have been the AT&T Classic, had it been running on the old schedule of the week before the Masters. For the period from Wednesday the 28th through April Fool’s Day, we could be looking at highs around 60, and lows in the 30s, according to one forecast I’ve seen. The Climate Prediction Center is still calling for warmer than normal temperatures in Atlanta for that timeframe though, so we’ll have to wait and see what the weather actually becomes.

With a week to go before the Christmas holiday, many people are planning to pile into their cars and head home to family over the next week. Unfortunately, it looks like the great weather we’ve been enjoying for the past few days is going to turn into rain (and in some areas, snow) just in time for holiday travel.

The action got started today, as the threat of mountain snow caused by an upper level low pressure system in the Rockies is affecting the mountains of Arizona and New Mexico. The storm moves east tomorrow, and brings the chance of a winter storm to portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, where it’s cold, and heavy rain and thunder to Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, where it’s not.

Here in Georgia, we’ll begin to feel the effects on Wednesday, with high temperatures 15 degrees below what we’ve been seeing. By Thursday, when the peak travel period begins, the precipitation arrives, and is likely to bring an inch of rain to a band stretching from Louisiana to Massachusetts, and over two inches to a narrow band between New Orleans and Chattanooga.

Meanwhile, except for poor Portland, Oregon, not much rain is expected for the rest of the country after Thursday. If you’re traveling south and want to avoid the rain, leave on Thursday before the storm moves in. If you’re going north, leave on Saturday as the storm moves out. Friday looks to be just wet, although there’s a chance of rain throughout Georgia through Christmas day.

On the site maintenance side, I’ve taken some time during the pre-Christmas slowdown to install new icons for the current conditions and weather forecasts. I’ve also created another feature I’ve wanted to offer for a long time: the ability to provide current conditions and weather forecasts on other people’s sites. If you’ve got a website, you can pick your location, a background color or image, and the type of forecast you would like, and the appropriate code will automatically be generated for you to put on your web page.

So if you’re currently using a weather sticker from someone else on your site, or want to personalize your blog with local information, support a community resource by adding local weather to your website.

Metro Atlanta is battening down the hatches this evening in preparation for the coldest weather yet this season. Radio stations have opened up their storm centers, even though except for the relatively high winds, there’s no storm in sight. Actually, I like Walter Reeves advice the best: turn off your automatic sprinkler systems so you don’t wake up to a sheet of ice for the next few mornings.

Cold weather in December isn’t all that unusual. In 2005, temperatures got down to 20 degrees just before Christmas, and in 2004, it was 17 degrees on December 20th. Those temperatures are comparable to what I expect we’ll see over the next few mornings.

If you’re not a fan of the colder weather, the good news is that once this spell is over, we’re likely to see a warmer period that could last almost through Christmas Day. By Monday, temperatures will moderate with highs in the upper 50s, and lows in the 30s. The following week, we could even see highs in the upper 60s, and lows in the 40s. The warmer weather is also likely to bring us some rain during the period as well.

I spent the day upgrading the website, adding some new maps, and hopefully making it easier to use. Now that winter is in full swing, I’ve added a new Winter Weather page which shows maps of snowfall levels and predicted snowfall for the next 24 hours. There’s also a discussion of major snow and ice storms expected over the next few days.

I’ve also modified the home page to add some additional forecast maps, and to make the maps easier to use. Now, you can click on a tab to see warnings and radar, temperature and precipitation forecasts, and current conditions. I’ve got a little more work to do to finish everything up, especially when trying to display a larger map of some of the forecasts, but it should be done by the end of the weekend.