For the first time since July, 2007, none of Georgia is experiencing exceptional drought conditions. The most recent Georgia drought monitor shows that 46% of the state is drought free, and that parts of southern Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett counties have improved to the severe drought category, a step up from the extreme drought conditions seen further north.

Including the 1.15 inches of rain that fell yesterday at the Atlanta airport, we are above normal for March precipitation, and only down 1.79 inches for the year.  Last year at this time, only 7.89 inches of rain had fallen in Atlanta, so we’re way ahead of last year.  Lake Lanier is responding as well, rising about a third of a foot from the rain yesterday.

The drought outlook continues to call for improvement in the parts of Alabama and Georgia that were hardest hit last year, and some improvement for  the remainder of North Georgia, South Carolina and North Caroliina.  This outlook parallels the latest monthly precipitation outlook for April:

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While the vernal equinox isn’t for another three weeks, from a weatherman’s perspective, today is the first day of spring. And it looks like for the next two weeks or so, spring is going to be colder and wetter than normal, so take advantage of the nice weather this weekend while it lasts.

Beginning on Monday evening, another round of storms should hit much of the east coast, including Georgia. The latest hazards outlook is calling for a chance of severe thunderstorms Monday evening and Tuesday, and is also calling for some significant drought relief from the rain the storms will bring. Another front passing through later in the week could bring some rain, but it is more likely to introduce some cooler weather, with high temperatures next week at this time in the low 50s.

The 6-10 day outlook is calling for colder than normal temperatures, and greater than normal precipitation in north Georgia, while the 8-14 day outlook continues the cold trend and brings precipitation back to normal. For the month as a whole, the outlook is for warmer than normal temperatures, and normal rainfall.

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A few interesting weather notes tonight…

First of all, there is going to be a total eclipse of the moon tomorrow night, the only one until sometime in 2010. As you c an see from the chart below, the event begins shortly before 9PM, reaches totality somewhere around 10:30, and ends shortly after midnight on the 22nd.

Unfortunately, it looks like most folks in Georgia will not be able to view too much, since the forecast is for increasing cloudiness Wednesday evening, as the next storm system moves in. That’s too bad, since this is one that will be visible from beginning to end for much of the eastern part of the country. But, step outside tomorrow night if you have a chance, to see a rare event. You can find more at NASA’s Lunar Eclipse Page.

Georgians hoping for some relief from the drought shouldn’t mind missing the eclipse too much, since the oncoming clouds herald a very good chance for significant precipitation. The latest HPC numbers call for over an inch through Saturday morning, and more rain over the weekend. This is actually down a bit from their morning outlook, which predicted up to three inches of rain through Sunday morning. Accuweather is calling for 2 inches on Thursday or Friday. Any way you slice it, the additional rainfall combined with last Sunday’s rain will increase stream runoff, helping Lake Lanier refill.

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For the moment, the weather seems to be running about a month ahead of the calendar. With daytime temperatures in the upper 60s for the past few days, Atlanta is now running about 5.5 degrees above normal in February. Enjoy the nice weather while it lasts, because the current thinking by the meteorologists is that a cooldown is ahead, beginning this weekend.

For the first part of President’s day week, highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with lows in the low 30s. Later in the week, we could get back to high temperatures around 60, but keep in mind that the normal high for late February is 59. The Weather Service’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks both call for colder than normal temperatures for much of the eastern US. With a ridge in the western part of the country, and a trough expected for the east, it would be reasonable to expect some rain, and it looks like we’ll get that, at least for the early part of the long range period.

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Today is Candlemas Day, the second of February, when the Groundhog is supposed to predict the likelihood of an early Spring. While Pennsylvania’s Punxsutawney Phil is probably the best nationally known prognosticator of the weather, many others of the species Marmota monax are weighing in as well.

In Shubenacadie, Nova Scotia Sam the woodchuck failed to see his shadow in the rain this morning, foretelling an early Spring. Another Canadian groundhog, Ontario’s Wiarton Willie, concurred. In New York, Staten Island Chuck is also calling for an early Spring, although I suspect many New Yorkers would at least like to see some snow before that happens. Ohio’s Buckeye Chuck predicted an early spring in Marion. He’s been making forecasts since 1979. And in Woodstock, Illinois, where the movie Groundhog Day was filmed, Woodstock Willie opined that an early spring was on the way as well.

Punxsutawney Phil might say these five are amateurs. at Gobbler’s Knob, where people began lining up at 3 AM in anticipation of his prediction, Phil saw his shadow just before 7:30 AM, and predicted six more weeks of winter. But here in Georgia, General Beauregard Lee awoke from his sleep at the Yellow River Game Ranch and did not see his shadow, making it six marmots to one in favor of an early spring.

Of course, we won’t know which prediction is correct for another two months. However, the National Weather Service, which is a bit more scientific in its predictions is calling for a good chance of warmer than normal weather for most of the eastern half of the United States in February, so maybe the groundhogs will be right.