Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
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FGUS71 KBGM 051758
ESFBGM
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-061800-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1257 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2010
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NUMBER 5
...SUMMARY...
THIS OUTLOOK IS DESIGNED TO ASSESS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD
MARCH 5 2010 TO MARCH 19 2010. THIS ASSESSMENT IS FOR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) BINGHAMTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA,
WHICH INCLUDES THE FINGER LAKES/ONEIDA LAKE/OSWEGO RIVER BASIN,
CHEMUNG RIVER BASIN, SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN (NORTH BRANCH) AND THE
UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN.
THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT/RUNOFF IS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD.
THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD.
NOTE...THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY
FUTURE FLOODING.
...DETAILS...
THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE
FLOODING BUT NOT FLASH FLOODING. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT
ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO
RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION,
SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE,
STREAM-FLOW, FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND OTHERS.
ACROSS THE REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS
TO RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN WHEN
THE OVERALL RIVER AND LAKE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR
BELOW AVERAGE.
CURRENT RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL - ABOVE NORMAL.
CURRENT LAKE FLOOD POTENTIAL - SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS RIVER AND LAKE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE
FOLLOWING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS:
CURRENT FLOODING - NO RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE IN FLOOD AT THE
CURRENT TIME.
RECENT PRECIPITATION - NEAR NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO THE LAST WEEK PERIOD WERE
APPROXIMATELY AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LONGER TERM 30 AND 60 DAY
PERIOD PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES WERE NORMAL.
SNOWPACK CONDITIONS - ABOVE NORMAL.
SNOWPACK CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
VALUES...
TUG HILL PLATEAU 2 - 6 INCHES
WESTERN FINGER LAKES 1 - 3 INCHES
EASTERN FINGER LAKES 2 - 5 INCHES
WYOMING VALLEY 0 - 2 INCHES
NORTHEAST PA RIDGES 2 - 3 INCHES
EAST BRANCH DELAWARE 5.6 INCHES
WEST BRANCH DELAWARE 5.4 INCHES
UPPER NEVERSINK RIVER 6.5 INCHES
UPPER RONDOUT RIVER 4.9 INCHES
CHEMUNG BRANCH 0 - 3 INCHES
NORTH BRANCH SUS NY 2 - 4 INCHES 4 - 6 INCHES HEADWATERS
FOR DETAILED GRAPHICS OF THE SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS VISIT THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING
CENTER WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NOHRSC.NWS.GOV.
RIVER ICE CONDITIONS - BELOW NORMAL.
RIVER ICE CONDITIONS TEND TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. NO AREAS OF ICE HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM AND RIVER CONDITIONS - BELOW NORMAL.
USGS STREAM GAGES WITH 30 YEARS OR MORE OF RECORD ARE MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE BINGHAMTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
DETAILED REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) WEB PAGES AT HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - MOIST.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN NE PA AND THROUGHOUT THE CHEMUNG
RIVER BASIN IN NEW YORK STATE WERE UNUSUALLY MOIST WHILE THE UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AND UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN IN NEW YORK STATE
WERE VERY MOIST TO EXTREMELY MOIST.
SOIL MOISTURE WAS BASED ON THE LATEST WEEKLY PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX ISSUED BY NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. THE LATEST PALMER
DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX MAP CAN BE FOUND BY NAVIGATING TO THE WEBSITE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/REGIONAL_MONITOR
/PALMER.GIF.
GROUND WATER - MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND WATER
LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. LEVELS
IN NORTHEAST PA ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
RESERVOIR AND LAKE CONDITIONS - SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL.
NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS IN THE CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK /
UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN ARE SOMEWHAT ABOVE THEIR LONG TERM MEDIAN
VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS HAVE
WATER LEVELS NEAR NORMAL POOL ELEVATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WATER LEVELS IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH RESPECT TO THEIR NORMAL WINTER
POOL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY NEAR THEIR TARGET
LEVELS AT ONEIDA...CAYUGA LAKE...AND SENECA LAKE.
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEK PERIOD...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL. NO BIG STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THE
10TH. FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE 10TH SNOW WILL SLOWLY MELT EACH
AFTERNOON.
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) OUTLOOK - ANOTHER
TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIVER FLOODING IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MARFC) AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE RIVER BASINS...IS THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS). AHPS GENERATES PROBABILISTIC RIVER
FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS (RIVER LEVELS, SOIL
MOISTURE, EXTENT AND CONDITION OF ANY SNOWPACK) ALONG WITH 50 YEARS
OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA. FOR THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD...AHPS INDICATES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR RIVER FLOODING
IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DELAWARE RIVER BASIN AND SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
BASIN COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY OBSERVED DURING THIS
SAME TIME PERIOD.
MUCH MORE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING
THESE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INTERNET WEB SITES.
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BGM
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MARFC
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/NERFC
(USE LOWER CASE FOR ALL WEB ADDRESSES IN THIS OUTLOOK.)
$$
SCHAFFNER/TAC
