000
FXUS61 KBGM 181014
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
614 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIPRES WL CONT TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WX TODAY. HI
CIRRUS SPREADING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WL APPCH THE CWA LATER THIS
AFTN...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CLD CVR SHUD RMN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAY SEE ENUF IN THE WAY OF CLDS TO WORD NRN ZONES AS PCLDY
THIS AFTN...WITH MOSUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO +4C OVR MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE COOLER ACRS MOHAWK VLY/TUG HILL WITH FLOW
OFF LK ONTARIO AND A TAD MORE CLD CVR. MOST AREAS WL LKLY TOP OUT
IN THE 60S...WITH DEEPER VLYS CLIMBING INTO THE U60S.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WL BE HOW LOW DWPTS FALL AGAIN THIS AFTN.
VALUES ALREADY HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YDA MRNG BUT STILL PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN TDA. MAY SEE DWPTS DROP INTO THE UPR TEENS
INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATE THIS AFTN AS A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WORKS IN WITH APPCH FRONT. RH VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP TO NR 20% FM SOUTHERN TIER SOUTH INTO NEPA. GRASS FIRES
REPORTED YDA IN FA AND EXPECT MUCH THE SAME TDA. FORTUNATELY...
WINDS WL TOP OUT ARND 15KTS THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WX CONTS THRU THE SHORT TERM. FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA SHOOTS EAST TONIGHT WITH ONLY SLGT INCRS IN CLD CVR
EXPECTED ACRS THE NORTH. RMNDR OF THE AREA LKLY TO EXPERIENCE MOCLR
SKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE/VLY SPLIT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WL
DROP INTO THE M/U 30S.
FCST RMNS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WITH SW FLOW LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS EACH DAY AND MOSUNNY SKIES ACRS THE REGION WITH EXCEPTION OF
SOME PASSING CIRRUS THRU SATURDAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN
FRI/SAT...POSSIBLY APPCHG 70 DEGREES IN DEEPER VLYS SAT AFTN. OF
COURSE THIS WL ALL DEPEND ON CLD CVR INCRSG AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
BY SAT EVNG...H5 LOW EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF NR BOOTHEEL OF MO WITH
MAIN LOPRES AREA/FRONTAL BNDRY RMNG BACK TO THE WEST THRU 12Z SUN.
STILL ADVERTISING LOCHC FOR SHOWERS LATE SAT NGT WITH FRONTAL
BNDRY SETTING ACRS FAR NORTH OR INTO SRN CANADA THRU THIS TIME.
HWVR...THINK MOST OF MEASURABLE PCPN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT THIS
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 300 AM...
WE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SUN/MON PORTION OF THE MED RNG
FCST...BASED ON GOOD TO XCLNT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL 00Z
GFS/12Z EURO RUNS...WHICH INDICATE A SLOWER FROPA DUE TO GREATER
SEPARATION OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAM SYSTEMS. THE 00Z NAM LOOKS TO
QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE SREFS, WHICH ALSO
INDICATE A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE ANAFRONT FOR EARLY NXT WEEK. GIVEN
THESE TRENDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...WE RAISED T/TD'S ON
SUNDAY NGT...AND ARE INDICATING NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS ON MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG LOW LVL CAA. PREV BLO...
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PASS SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. UNFORTUNATELY
ALL THE MODEL AGREEMENT THAT WE HAD WITH YESTERDAY/S 12Z RUNS IS
NO LONGER AS TODAY/S 12Z GFS/CANADIAN GEM ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THAT SAID...MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THAT THE
SLOWER ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN TENN RVR VLY ON SAT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEP
TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z GFS/GEM
MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES EAST WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. THAT SAID...WAITED ALL MORNING TO SEE THE NEW GEM
AS INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT THAT 12Z GFS WAS OUT TO
LUNCH...HOWEVER HAVE BEEN FORCED TO REANALYZE THIS WITH THE 12Z
GEM. THAT SAID...HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE MADE A
CONCENTRATED EFFORT TO NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ON SUN AS
GFS/GEM NOW SUGGEST FRONT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS OPPOSED TO
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED POPS ON SUN AS
REGARDLESS OF WHAT MODEL YOU CHOOSE...ALL ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER
HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. STILL NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED FOR THUNDER FOR THE TIME BEING AS VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
BE FURTHER REALIZED WITH AN EARLIER FROPA BASED ON LACK OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SO FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE TO CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
WITH HOPES THAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP PIN DOWN THE
DETAILS A LITTLE BETTER.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION STILL EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MON
WITH H85 TEMPS DECREASING TO -8 TO -12C RANGE BY 00Z TUE. HAVE
MAINTAINED -RA/SN MENTION THROUGH THE DAY ON MON WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE EXPECTED. -SN MAY PERSIST INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE. MODERATING TREND THEN EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...VFR WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM SKC TO BKN200 THROUGH
12Z FRI.
BENIGN WX TO CONTINUE WITH SOME SCT-BKN CI WORKING INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS UPSTATE NY. WINDS L&V EARLY THIS
MORNING...BCMG WRLY 10-15 KTS THIS AFTN...WITH L&V CONDITIONS
TNGT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI/SAT/SAT NGT...VFR.
SUN...MVFR SPREADING ACRS THE RGN IN SHRA.
SUN NGT/MON...IFR IN RAIN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
