Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS75 KPUB 031924
ESFPUB
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-
079-089-099-101-105-109-119-160700-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1223 PM MST WED DEC 03 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 2.0 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 11/26/2008 - 3/25/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE 5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1
SALIDA 8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.5
WELLSVILLE 9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.9
PARKDALE 9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2
CANON CITY 9 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0
PORTLAND 9 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4
PUEBLO 8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.0
AVONDALE 7 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8
FOWLER 16.5 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9
FOWLER 8 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2
ROCKY FORD 10 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5
LA JUNTA 10 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.6 8.1
LAMAR 11 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.8 6.9
FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS 8 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9
FOUNTAIN 8 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4
PINON 7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0
PUEBLO 10 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9
ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND 12 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.4
PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID 6 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9
TRINIDAD RESERVOIR 10 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.4
TRINIDAD 11 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5
LAS ANIMAS 9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.6 5.4 6.3 6.9
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO IN NOVEMBER. THE PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITES AT COLORADO
SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND ALAMOSA WERE 5.5...3.7 AND 2.9 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY.
PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN NOVEMBER. THE PRIMARY
SITES AT COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO WERE 0.27 AND 0.08 INCHES BELOW
AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE AT ALAMOSA WAS ACTUALLY A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A SURPLUS OF 0.12 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.
STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE IN NOVEMBER. SOIL MOISTURE
WAS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN NOVEMBER...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW STRIP
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. AT THE END OF OCTOBER...OVERALL RESERVOIR
STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE. THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 94 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE STORAGE OVERALL. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 75
PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE.
THE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER...JANUARY AND FEBRUARY...FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.
$$
LW
