000
FXUS65 KPUB 192230
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MST WED NOV 19 2008
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
THERE ARE MULTIPLE SHORT TERM CONCERNS. THESE INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...THE COVERAGE AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE OF THE CORRESPONDING STRATIFORM LAYER.
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THROUGH
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE THROUGH COLORADO...BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
TOMORROW..,.THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A STRATIFORM LAYER THAT
WILL DRAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TOMORROW. WITH THIS STRATIFORM
LAYER THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW. HAVE EXPANDED POP AREAS TO INCLUDE THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY. THE NAM12 SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGH TOMORROW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE I 25
CORRIDOR...THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND IN THE CENTRAL SAN LUIS
VALLEY...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ACCORDING TO THE NAM12 HAS
INCREASED. THE FOG LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUD COVER FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. -JC
.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
SHALLOW UPSLOPE CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
SE MTS THURS EVENING AS FLOW STAYS SOUTHEASTERLY. STRATUS...WITH A
MIX OF FLURRIES...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MOISTURE QUICKLY SHALLOWS OUT QUICKLY TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE RATON LIKELY RESULTING IN
CLEARING SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NRN US ROCKIES. 12Z GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MT/WY ON FRIDAY...CLIPPING IT
BY NE CO DURING THE DAY. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL ERODE WHAT
REMAINS OF THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING...AND
RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. APPEARS SYSTEM
WILL PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON PCPN
CHANCES FOR SE CO. HOWEVER IT DOES SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
SE PLAINS LATE FRI AFTN AND FRI NIGHT. GFS WOULD SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN NAM.
FRI NIGHT WILL BE COLDER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HAVE DROPPED
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES.
NOT TO LEAVE OUT THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT FRONT SHOULD
BE TOO SHALLOW TO AFFECT THIS AREA MUCH. SHOULD BE WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE PASSING TROF TO
THE NORTH...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL MTS AS
BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH.
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEXT
TROF DROPS DOWN IN NW FLOW ON SUNDAY SENDING A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN CO. THEN UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS IN FOR NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL 10Z. THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AND THROUGH ALL OF SE CO AND BANKED UP
ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES BY 12Z THU. MVFR AND IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND FROPA. LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL
SAN LUIS VALLEY THERE WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG STARTING
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUING UNTIL MID MORNING. -JC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/31
