000
FXUS66 KHNX 072101
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
201 PM PDT THU AUG 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CA WHICH HAS BROUGHT INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THAT AREA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EAST OF OUR AREA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PUSH SOME DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND KERN DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING SO WILL
KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.
MEANWHILE...EXCEPT FOR SOME CUMULUS WHICH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS...OUR AREA HAS
REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO YDAY.
BEYOND TONIGHT...THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WV SHOWS HAS DROPPED OUT OF THE
GULF OF AK AND IS APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. AS IT NEARS THE
COAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL PULL A DRY VORT MAX ACROSS NORCAL WHICH
WILL TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
CA...PUSHING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH HAS AFFECTED OUR AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...TO OUR EAST. THE LOW ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A DRY UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CA
WHICH WILL HELP KEEP A DRY ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRENGTHENING P-GRADS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE FOUR CORNERS
RIDGE REBUILDING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EACH DAY. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE GEM/GFS/NOGAPS TO APPROACH THE COAST BY
MIDWEEK AND PUSH INLAND BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PREVENT
THE MONSOON MOISTURE FROM RETURNING TO OUR AREA FOR A WHILE. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LOW HANGING OFF THE CA
COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IDEA IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE OTHER MODELS AND HAS BEEN DISREGARDED.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS THROUGH 04Z FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
CREATING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY AUGUST 7 2008...UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...SANGER
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
