000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050944
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 89W N OF 03N MOVING W 15 KT
ENTERING AREA UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR NEXT 24 HR. NO SIGNS OF
CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN DETECTED.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 13N95W TO 13N97W TO 11N106W TO 12N120W
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS E OF
88W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N TO AXIS FROM 92W TO 112W.
...DISCUSSION...
SHARP TROUGH WHICH TRIED TO PENETRATE STUBBORN WELL-ANCHORED
RIDGE OVER E PAC HAS GIVEN UP EFFORTS AND IS NOW FROM 32N120W TO
25N140W. RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 24N124W BUILDS TO
DOMINATE FLOW ELSEWHERE N OF 15N W OF 115W WITH DRY SUBSIDING
AIR MASS. CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N113W DENTS RIDGE ON E SIDE.
RIDGE EXTENDS SE PARALLEL TO COAST OF MEXICO TO SECOND
ANTICYCLONE AT 14N87W...PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW FOR DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE NOW AT 88W.
SWATH OF E SHEAR ACROSS ITCZ TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N HAS KEPT
WEAK LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 13N99W FROM FULLY ORGANIZING. WITH THE
DEMISE OF BORIS AND DOUGLAS OVER COLDER E PAC WATERS THE BASIN
IS CLEAR FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. BUT GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT TAKE LONG IN SPINNING A NEW LOW PRES LATER IN THE
WEEK WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE...HINTING
OF ITS DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS NEAR 20N114W STILL PACK 20-25 KT WINDS AND 9
FT SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN 24
HR. SIMILARLY...REMNANTS OF BORIS AT 16N135W CONTINUE WITH
20-25 KT WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER. BORIS
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING W OUT OF AREA WITHIN NEXT 36 HR.
$$
WALLY BARNES
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