000
FXUS64 KFWD 201706 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
.UPDATE...
AS WITH MANY FROPA DAYS...TEMPS AND WINDS HAVE A WAY OF STRAYING
FROM HOURLY GRID VALUES. A SECOND UPDATE THIS MORNING PRIMARILY
RAISES MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPS. AGREE WITH RUC VALUES WHICH
SHOW SOME MODERATING OF THE COLD AIR WITH SUNSHINE AND LOW
HUMIDITY...POSTFRONTAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A BIT BEFORE
LOSING STEAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...BLUSTERY WINDS
WILL ASSURE A CHILLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF
OF CWA...WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND GRASS FIRE DANGER WILL
BE HIGH. THIN PATCH OF CLOUDS AT THE BASE OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION
WILL CONTINUE SKIRTING WESTERN ZONES...BUT DUE TO BRIEF NATURE...
WILL NOT AFFECT SKY WORDING. FULL UPDATE OF ZFP AND ALL OTHER
PRODUCTS GOING OUT NOW.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A CARLSBAD...WICHITA FALLS...TO
MCALESTER LINE AT 430 AM. THE STRONGER WINDS LAGGED THE WIND SHIFT
LINE BY ABOUT 30 MILES.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE COLD FRONT TO THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z AND WACO A COUPLE HOURS LATER. A LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH
THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD LAG THE WIND SHIFT BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. WILL CARRY A PREVAILING NORTH WIND AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN NORTH BETWEEN 12 AND 14 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR WITH ONLY SOME POST FRONTAL FEW/SCATTERED CU.
.79...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/
257 AM
WIND SHIFT LINE IS NEAR A ROSWELL-LUBBOCK-FORT SMITH LINE AT 08Z
WITH THE TRUE COLD AIR JUST PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF KANSAS. THIS LAG
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE TO WARM UP SOME 3 TO 4 HOURS BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT BEFORE THE MAIN COLD AIR ARRIVES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND DEEP LIFT IS ABSENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
ADD THIS TO OUR DRY FUELS AND THE GRASS FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF AN EASTLAND TO EMORY LINE. THIS AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER FREEZE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF FRIDAY
MORNING.
SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ISENTROPIC RETURN FLOW WILL EXIST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT NEARS SUNDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL INCREASE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. CURRENTLY...SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. FAIR AND SEASONAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OFF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SOUTHERN ROCKIES LEE-SIDE SYSTEM
THAT COULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AFTERWARD.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 59 35 52 37 58 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO, TX 66 36 53 39 59 / 0 0 0 5 5
PARIS, TX 57 29 48 31 53 / 0 0 0 5 5
DENTON, TX 57 30 50 35 58 / 0 0 0 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 58 30 51 33 56 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 60 35 52 38 58 / 0 0 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 63 34 52 38 55 / 0 0 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 68 33 52 37 56 / 0 0 0 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 70 37 53 40 57 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
77/25
