000
FXUS62 KFFC 130930 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTERMITTENT SPRINKLES CONTINUING TO RACE TOWARD THE WNW ACROSS
CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS
OVERHEAD. A MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A SURFACE HIGH IN THE CAROLINAS WILL FURTHER
ASSERT THEIR PRESENCE INTO GA BY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END
TO ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN WEST
CENTRAL GA.
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER GA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING CONSIDERABLE
SUBSIDENCE...A DRIER AIRMASS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND NEARLY CALM WINDS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AS H8 TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 15-17 DEG C
RANGE...MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD STRONGER WESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...WITH A 90KT H2 JET STREAM
BRINGING SEVERAL WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. LONGER RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
STRENGTH AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A SYSTEM STILL OUT IN THE DATA
SPARSE PACIFIC...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DEPICTS THIS AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH
JUST TO OUR NORTH BY LATE WEEK WHICH WOULD LEAD TO BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIP AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA ON
FRIDAY. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF EARLIER
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAD LOOKED MORE LIKE THE WETTER EUROPEAN. SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF FROPA
AND...DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO WINS OUT...POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COOLER AND DRY WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO GA FROM THE NORTH.
&&
RRH
.AVIATION...
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WITH LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IS
BEGINNING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NE SO WILL SEE THESE LOW CEILINGS
LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SCT AND CLEAR OUT BY 20Z-23Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10-15KTS THIS MORNING AND
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS RIDGE CENTER MOVES SW DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 3-7KT RANGE BY 22Z. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS/AREAS OF SPRINKLES AROUND THE AREA BUT AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE OVER WITH BY 14Z. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CREATING SOME VSBY
ISSUES WITH SOME OBSERVATION LOCATIONS GOING DOWN TO 3SM. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 53 85 51 90 / 5 0 0 0 5
ATLANTA 78 57 83 56 86 / 10 0 0 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 73 49 82 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 78 51 84 46 87 / 5 0 0 0 5
COLUMBUS 80 62 86 57 90 / 20 0 0 0 5
GAINESVILLE 77 56 83 56 85 / 5 0 0 0 5
MACON 80 55 87 51 88 / 20 0 0 0 5
ROME 82 57 86 48 88 / 10 0 0 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 78 53 83 45 87 / 20 0 0 0 5
VIDALIA 80 57 85 53 89 / 10 0 0 0 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
