000
FXUS62 KFFC 150206 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1006 PM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010
.UPDATE...
SENT QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL AREA OF
RAIN THAT DEVELOPED IN A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR
ROME TO ATLANTA. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY IN THAT AREA...AS SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THAT
TIME.
07
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE VIRGINIA... ALL
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A WEAK SECONDARY LOW EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS
SECONDARY LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LOW AS IT APPROACHES
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SECONDARY LOW REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT...AND
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME POPS...THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED REPORTS OF A WINTRY MIX OF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW BEGINS SHIFTING MORE EAST.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN ON
MONDAY. BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MID WEEK SETTING UP SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.
NEXT SHORT WAVE BEGINS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND ENERGY TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO NORTH GEORGIA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT ROTATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POPS. EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE ON HOW STRONG AND LOCATION OF LOW...WITH ECMWF WEAKER AND
FURTHER EAST WHICH ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO HOLD A BIT LONGER. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT CROSSES
THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS STARTED TO TREND TOWARD THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW ROTATING SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. KEEPING DEEP NW FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW ENHANCING CLOUDS AND EVEN GENERATING
A FEW SPRINKLES AT TIMES. PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TAF
VALID PERIOD. AS A SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY
MON...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME DECREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT SE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFT 12Z TUE.
HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPLY THAT IT MAY
BE HARD TO GET ANY BONAFIDE CLEARING...AS INSOLATION COULD QUICKLY
INCREASE SC AFT 14Z. PLAN TO HOLD ONTO BKN MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT TAF
VALID PERIOD. LOOKING UPSTREAM AND GIVEN HISTORY OF THIS TYPE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...CIGS BELOW 010 NOT SUPPORTED...SO HAVE KEPT CIGS
AOA 015 OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON. CLEARLY WINDS REMAIN WNW-NW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STRONGER DURING DAYTIME HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING.
GUSTS TO 25KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ATL MON AFTERNOON...WITH
GENERALLY 10-12KT WINDS OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION MAY TREND SLIGHTLY
MORE NW MON AFTERNOON.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 38 63 38 61 43 / 20 5 0 5 10
ATLANTA 40 57 38 56 42 / 40 5 0 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 39 51 38 52 42 / 40 5 0 5 20
CARTERSVILLE 40 56 38 55 42 / 60 5 0 5 10
COLUMBUS 43 60 40 62 45 / 20 5 0 5 10
GAINESVILLE 38 57 39 55 43 / 20 5 0 5 10
MACON 42 62 38 64 44 / 20 5 0 5 10
ROME 42 55 40 57 42 / 60 5 0 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 40 59 35 59 41 / 20 5 0 5 10
VIDALIA 44 63 43 66 44 / 20 0 0 5 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
