000
FXAK69 PAFG 032043
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1143 AM AKST WED DEC 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE PROGS THROUGH DAY 3 ARE SIMILAR ON THE
MAJOR FEATURES...EXCEPT FOR THE DEEPENING TRIPLE POINT
LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE CARRYING A SOMEWHAT DEEPER CENTER IN
THE NEAR TERM THAN THE NAM. GFS/ECMWF RESOLVE THIS LOW MUCH
BETTER THAN THE NAM THROUGH 00Z SAT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
OLD PARENT LOW. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED. BROAD
SCALE WIND FIELDS FROM ALL 3 MODELS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR.
WILL UPGRADE THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ213
TO A WARNING ON THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST SUITE.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-50 MPH OVER AKZ213...A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF OCCASIONAL 60 MPH GUSTS OVER THE
NORMALLY WINDY AREAS SUCH AS GAMBELL AND NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW ROTATES WESTWARD AND MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO OUR FORECAST AREA...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. SOME
SNOW MAY MAKE IT WESTWARD TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
THURSDAY...MAYBE TO THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY
THAT TIME.
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 15 MPH
OR LESS OVER MOST OF ALL AREAS EAST OF WAINWRIGHT
THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO NORTON SOUND AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT...
AND TO MUCH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND INTERIOR
SOUTH OF SELAWIK-BETTLES-FORT YUKON THU MORNING.
SNOW MAY BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF AKZ214-AKZ215 LATE THU MORNING OR THU AFTERNOON
AS 1000-850 MB LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURE NUDGES UP TO 0C
OR A LITTLE ABOVE. GFS CARRYING THE LARGEST PRECIP
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH 18Z THU...ECMWF
SOMEWHAT LESS AND THE NAM CONSIDERABLY LESS. WILL
OPT OUT FOR MAXIMUM SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND 5 INCHES IN
AKZ214 AND UP TO 7 INCHES IN AKZ215-AKZ216.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&
$$
RF DEC 08
