000
FXUS61 KGYX 041850
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND SETS UP A WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT S THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES HAVE
GENERALLY CLEARED OUT...EVEN IN FAR SRN ZONES. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
ALOFT WILL LKLY SLOW OR HALT SWD PROGRESS OF FRONT THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BEGIN TO PUSH SOME CI BACK INTO SRN ZONES LATER
THIS EVE. THINK THAT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...AND THAT
ANY PRECIP WILL STAY S OF THE CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SLT CHC POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE MA BORDER. ACROSS THE NRN THREE QUARTERS
OF THE CWA WILL LKLY SEE SOME VLY/RADIATION FOG AGAIN...AS
CALM/CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONT TO REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND WILL LKLY
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS/EURO/SREF ALL KEEP PRECIP S OF CWA...WITH
NAM12 SHOWING SOME PRECIP WORKING INTO SRN NH. WILL GO WITH THE
MODEL MAJORITY...AND JUST KEEP SLT CHC IN THE SRN ZONES...AS NAM12
ALSO SEEMS TO BE RUNNING A BIT HIGH ON DEW POINTS AND IS PERHAPS
GENERATING SOME CONVECTION BASED ON THE INCREASED LOW LVL
MOISTURE. WILL DEAL WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER
N...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO CALL SKIES WORSE THAN P/SUNNY.
WILL LKLY SEE GREATER DISPARITIES IN MAX TEMPS FROM COAST TO
INLAND...GIVEN A LIGHT SYNOPTIC E-SE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
WORKWEEK WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WE REMAIN IN THAT PATTERN TILL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND USHERS IN
ANOTHER COOLER AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AT OR BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS. USED GMOS FOR
TEMPERATURE/POP/WIND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SAT...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
AT KLEB AND KCON LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS MORE LKLY AT KLEB.
LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING MVFR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK IN ANY MAINLY DAYTIME CONVECTION AND MVFR/IFR
IN ANY FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN TRANQUIL THRU SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SCA`S POSSIBLE FOR BUILDING SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA
