Weather for Altoona, Pennsylvania
Lat: 40.51N, Lon: 78.4W
Wx Zone: PAZ025 CWA Used: CTP
Pennsylvania Drought Monitor
The Pennsylvania Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Pennsylvania land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.
Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.
Pennsylvania Hydrologic Information Statement
Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
503 FGUS71 KCTP 161844 ESFCTP PAC001-009-013-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-047-055-057-061-067- 071-075-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-133- 181845- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 144 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FEBRUARY 16 2017... INTRODUCTION. During the winter and spring...the National Weather Service issues a series of winter and spring Flood Potential Outlooks. These outlooks estimate the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) across central Pennsylvania based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which contribute to river flooding. Across central Pennsylvania these factors include recent precipitation...soil moisture...snow cover and snow water equivalent...river ice...streamflows...future weather conditions and other. This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any future river flooding. This outlook covers the Susquehanna River Basin including the West Branch...Juniata...and much of the Middle and Lower Susquehanna Valley. Also covered are portions of the Upper and Lower Allegheny Basins...including areas from Warren and McKean Counties in the south. This outlook is valid Thursday February 16 through Thursday March 2, 2017. In central Pennsylvania...heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year...even when overall river flood potential is considered low or below average. Detailed Discussion. Two week river flood potential...The current potential for river flooding is average. Current flooding...None. No flooding is occurring in the region at this time. Recent precipitation...Variable. Precipitation within the State College Forecast area during the last 30 days (January 16th - February 15th) is variable across the region...with the eastern third of the region seeing below average precipitation and the western two thirds of the region at or above average. Snow conditions...Below Average. Most of the northern half of the area has snow on the ground, as well as the Laurel Highlands. Snow depths range from 1 to 10 inches with the deepest snow pack over northern Warren and McKean Counties. Snow water equivalents are generally under one inch which is below average for mid February. Snow data and information sources include the NOAA/NWS Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (www.nohrsc.noaa.gov)...the US Army Corps of Engineers...NWS Cooperative Observers...the Community Rain, Hail and Snow Network (COCORAHS) and others. Snow depth and basin average water equivalent estimates can be seen at www.erh.noaa.gov/er/marfc and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov . River ice...Below average. All rivers and streams are open and running with only spotty ice coverage...which is unusual for mid February. Follow river ice conditions at http://erh.noaa.gov/ctp/hydro/riverice/index.php . Stream flow conditions...Average and Above Average. Due to recent snow melt and rainfall streamflows are above average across western portions while closer to normal in the east. Real time water data is available from the United State Geological Survey by visiting http://water.usgs.gov . Soil moisture conditions...Average. The latest soil moisture reports show that most of the region is reporting near average moisture conditions. The February 15, 2017 chart (found at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ regional_monitorin g/palmer.gif) suggest deep soils across the area contain moisture that is fairly close to normal for this time of year with soil moisture levels improving over the northern half of Pennsylvania. The most recent version (February , 2017) of the US Drought Monitor chart does show eastern portions of the area experiencing abnormally dry to moderately dry conditions (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu). Moisture monitoring charts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Centre can be found at: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/soilmst_monitoring/us/soilmst/ soilmst.shtml and www.drought.gov . Ground Water...Variable. Monitoring wells are all at or above normal for western areas while southern and eastern areas of the region are below or even much below average...corresponding to where drought conditions are being observed. Current ground water conditions based on a 30 day moving average can be found at http://pa.water.usgs.gov/monitor/gw/index.html . Reservoir conditions...Average. Most water supply reservoirs within central Pennsylvania are holding average storage for this time of year...as are most flood control reservoirs. Future weather conditions...A dry and very warm weather pattern will develop over the region beginning Friday and continue through much of next week. Little precipitation is expected and temperatures will be move above normal through next Friday. A return to more seasonal temperatures and the return of precipitation is expected by late next week and the week after. Longer range weather outlooks can be viewed at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov . Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)...Normal. Another tool used to assess the potential for river flooding is the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service...AHPS. AHPS generates probabilistic river forecasts based on current basin conditions...including river levels...soil moisture...extent and condition of any snow pack...along with 50 years of history temperatures and precipitation data. For this outlook period...AHPS indicates that the likelihood of river flooding is near average compared to what has been observed during this same time period across small river basins in central Pennsylvania. River information can be found at water.weather.gov . Summary of flood potential February 14 to March 2, 2017: The regional flood potential is average for the next couple of weeks. While no flooding is expected next week...a return to more active weather is expected for week two in this outlook. The lack of deep snow pack and lack of river ice would work against the threat of flooding. Heavy rainfall would be required to cause river flooding. Overview: Current Flooding...None. Recent Precipitation...Variable. Snow Conditions...Below average. River Ice...Below Average. Stream Flow Conditions...Average. Soil Moisture Conditions...Average. Ground Water...Variable. Reservoir Conditions...Average. AHPS...Average. Overall Flood Potential...Average. The next flood potential outlook will be issued on Thursday March 2nd. Other hydrometeorological information can be found by visiting the State College Internet Homepage at http://weather.gov/ctp . $$ CR