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Weather for Altoona, Pennsylvania

Lat: 40.51N, Lon: 78.4W
Wx Zone: PAZ025 CWA Used: CTP

Pennsylvania Drought Monitor

The Pennsylvania Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Pennsylvania land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Pennsylvania Drought Monitor

Pennsylvania Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

608 
FGUS71 KCTP 191724
ESFCTP
PAC001-009-013-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-047-055-057-061-
067-071-075-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-
123-133-021145-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1220 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED JANUARY 19 2017...

INTRODUCTION.

DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A 
SERIES OF WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH 
FLOODING) ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT 
OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. 
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT 
PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER 
EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAMFLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND 
OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY 
FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE WEST 
BRANCH...JUNIATA...AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA 
VALLEY. ALSO COVERED ARE PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND LOWER ALLEGHENY 
BASINS...INCLUDING AREAS FROM WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES IN THE 
NORTH...THROUGH CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID THURSDAY JANUARY 19TH 2017 THROUGH THURSDAY 
FEBRUARY 2ND 2017.

IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH 
LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL 
CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN 
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW AVERAGE.

DETAILED DISCUSSION.

TWO WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR RIVER 
FLOODING IS AVERAGE.

CURRENT FLOODING...NONE. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE REGION AT 
THIS TIME.

RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW AVERAGE.

PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE STATE COLLEGE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LAST 
30 DAYS (DECEMBER 20TH - JANUARY 18TH ) IS VARIABLE ACROSS THE 
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE REGION SEEING BELOW AVERAGE 
PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE 
AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO AVERAGE. 

SNOW CONDITIONS...WELL BELOW AVERAGE. 

WITH RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL THERE WAS SUBSTANTIAL 
SNOW MELT LAST WEEK. MANY AREAS THAT SHOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT PACK 
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LAUREL 
HIGHLANDS HAVE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.
 
SNOW DATA AND INFORMATION SOURCES INCLUDE THE NOAA/NWS OPERATIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV)...THE U.S. 
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...THE COMMUNITY 
RAIN, HAIL AND SNOW NETWORK (COCORAHS) AND OTHERS. SNOW DEPTH AND 
BASIN AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE SEEN AT 
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC (LOWER CASE) AND WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV 
(LOWER CASE).

RIVER ICE...BELOW AVERAGE. ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE OPEN AND 
RUNNING WITH ONLY SPOTTY ICE COVERAGE...WHICH IS UNUSUALLY FOR LATE 
JANUARY.  FOLLOW RIVER ICE CONDITIONS AT 
HTTP://ERH.NOAA.GOV/CTP/HYDRO/RIVERICE/INDEX.PHP (LOWER CASE)

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE. IN GENERAL STREAM FLOWS ARE VERY 
CLOSE TO AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO RECENT SNOW MELT AND 
RAINFALL. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE AVERAGE FROM 
LAST WEEK BUT ARE RECEDING.

REAL TIME WATER DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL 
SURVEY BY VISITING HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV (LOWER CASE) ON THE 
INTERNET.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AVERAGE. THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE REPORTS 
SHOW THAT MOST OF THE REGION IS REPORTING NEAR AVERAGE MOISTURE 
VALUES. THE DECEMBER 14, 2017 CHART (FOUND AT 
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ 
REGIONAL_MONITORING/PALMER.GIF) SUGGESTS DEEP SOILS ACROSS THE AREA 
CONTAIN MOISTURE THAT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR WITH SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS IMPROVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF 
PENNSYLVANIA. THE MOST RECENT VERSION (JANUARY 17, 2017) OF THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR CHART DOES SHOW PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING 
ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS 
(HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU).

MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS FROM NOAA'S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAN 
BE FOUND AT: 
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/ 
SOILMST.SHTML (LOWER CASE) AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER...VARIABLE. MONITORING WELLS ARE ALL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL 
FOR WESTERN AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARES OF THE REGION ARE 
BELOW OR EVEN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE...CORRESPONDING TO WHERE DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED. 

CURRENT GROUND WATER CONDITIONS BASED ON A 30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE CAN 
BE FOUND AT HTTP://PA.WATER.USGS.GOV/MONITOR/GW/INDEX.HTML (LOWER 
CASE)

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
MOST WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS WITHIN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ARE HOLDING 
AVERAGE STORAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS ARE MOST FLOOD CONTROL 
RESERVOIRS.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY 
SMALL RISES IN WATER LEVELS.  A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PERIOD OF UNSETTLED 
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE 
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THE LONGER-RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOKS 
SUGGEST ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION 
WHEN AVERAGED OVER THE NINE DAY PERIOD FROM JANUARY 26-FEBRUARY 1, 
2017. LONGER-RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOKS CAN BE VIEWED AT 
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...NORMAL. ANOTHER TOOL 
USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING IS THE ADVANCED 
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE...AHPS. AHPS GENERATES PROBABILISTIC 
RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS... INCLUDING RIVER 
LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE...EXTENT AND CONDITION OF ANY SNOW 
PACK...ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION 
DATA. FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD... AHPS INDICATES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD 
OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW  AVERAGE COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN 
HISTORICALLY OBSERVED DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD ACROSS SMALL 
RIVER BASINS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE 
FOUND AT WATER.WEATHER.GOV

SUMMARY OF FLOOD POTENTIAL JANUARY 19 TO FEBRUARY 2 2017: THE 
REGIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS... 
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TRIGGERING FLOODING. 
THE LACK OF SNOW PACK LACK OF RIVER ICE AND RECENT DRY CONDITIONS 
WORK AGAINST THE THREAT OF FLOODING.HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE REQUIRED 
TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING.

OVERVIEW: CURRENT FLOODING...NONE. RECENT PRECIPITATION...VARIABLE. 
SNOW CONDITIONS...BELOW AVERAGE. RIVER ICE...BELOW AVERAGE. STREAM 
FLOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AVERAGE. 
GROUND WATER...VARIABLE. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...AVERAGE. 
AHPS...AVERAGE. OVERALL  FLOOD POTENTIAL...AVERAGE.

THE NEXT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 
2ND. 

OTHER HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE 
STATE COLLEGE INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CTP (LOWER 
CASE).

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