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Lawrenceville Weather

Weather for Stockton, California

Lat: 37.97N, Lon: 121.31W
Wx Zone: CAZ019 CWA Used: STO

California Drought Monitor

The California Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of California land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

California Drought Monitor

California Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

805 
FGUS76 KSTO 012127
ESFSTO
CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-021830-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
127 PM PST Wed Mar 1 2017

Elevated Spring Flood Threat Across Portions of California

The potential for flooding due to spring snowmelt in California 
Nevada River Forecast Center's domain is elevated due to much 
above normal snowpack. In California, this elevated risk is for 
many locations in the mountainous areas of the Cascades and the 
Sierra Nevada. Some of the lower elevation regulated systems, like
the San Joaquin River and its tributaries, will likely be under 
additional stress throughout the spring due to higher than normal 
releases from the large reservoirs as they manage inflows from the
above normal snowmelt volumes. In many cases, above normal flow 
conditions are already being experienced due to flood control 
requirements to make space for the expected snowmelt. Flows are 
expected to remain above normal in the San Joaquin system well 
into the snowmelt season, putting continuous stress on the flood 
conveyance system. Note that flooding in California could also 
result from heavy rainfall alone, or combined with snowmelt 
anytime during the spring.

Current Basin Conditions

Snowpack
Everywhere from the northern portions of the Klamath basin down 
to the Tulare basin in the southern Sierra Nevada is experiencing 
above average snowpack. Percent of normal numbers tend to increase
from North to South within the Sierra Nevada.

Seasonal Precipitation
Precipitation totals for the current water year are much above
normal to extreme for the entire state of California. The Northern
Sierra 8-Station Index is on pace to break an all-time record
assuming climatology for the rest of the water year.

Seasonal (April-July) Runoff Forecasts
The seasonal runoff forecasts are very similar to the snowpack
conditions. Much above normal to extreme runoff volumes can be
expected during the April-July period throughout the Cascades and
Sierra Nevada.

Flood Exceedance Probabilities
Flooding during the spring snowmelt season is definitely more
probable this year due to the much above normal snowpack. Consult
the AHPS Long Range Flood Risk Map for the latest point exceedance
probabilities at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php.

Summary
Risk of California flooding during the snowmelt season is elevated
this year for much of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada. Flood 
conveyance systems below major reservoirs in the San Joaquin basin
will be under additional stress throughout the spring. Flooding 
anywhere in the state could also result from heavy rainfall, or 
the combination of rain and snowmelt at any time during the 
spring. Refer to the long range outlook product for flood 
exceedance probabilities at particular locations for the March 
through May period. For short term hydrologic forecasts and 
general water resources information, please see the CNRFC homepage
at http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov.

$$

CNRFC/BW
WFO STO/CM