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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 291141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Warmer than normal temperatures will make it feel like the beginning 
of Summer rather than Springtime today. 

High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue off the 
southeast coast Today and Sunday. Low level moisture will continue 
to stream northward, but there are no synoptic surface features of 
note to provide focus for any convection today or during the early 
part of Sunday. However, with the good low level moisture and 
heating, orographically induced convection will be possible. 
Elsewhere, convection will have to be triggered by outflow boundaries 
or any other mesoscale features...such as a differential heating 
boundary. Forecast soundings show a decent capping inversion today 
and a somewhat stronger one on Sunday - keeping the activity 
isolated to scattered at best both days.

If convection does develop today, storms could be strong, with an 
isolated severe storm possible. Forecast soundings do show a nice 
inverted-v structure with steepening lapse rates. Gusty winds and 
hail would be likely within any strong/severe storms that develop. 

High temperatures today will average around 10 degrees above normal.


LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Still looking at two main systems impacting the extended forecast
period, late Sunday night and Monday and then later in the week
generally centered on Thursday. 

Initial system Sunday night and Monday continues to look like it
brings at least a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong
southwesterly upper flow ahead of a fairly deep upper low points to
some potential before midnight, especially across the west. Main
threat approaches after midnight entering the far west before  
daybreak as the associated cold front enters the state. Cold front is
progged to make steady progress across the forecast area through the
day Monday despite the parent surface low lifting well north into the
western Great Lakes. Medium range models continue to minimize the
instability somewhat as the system approaches Sunday night into early
Monday. MUCAPE values drop below 800 and 850-500mb lapse rates drop
to 6 degrees or less. Some diminished instability is to be expected
in the overnight period, but we will need to watch actual trends
closely. Nevertheless, with moderate low-level shear expected to 
accompany the main area of convection, severe threat cannot be 
ignored. Deeper layer shear appears to lag a bit behind main system 
at this time. Moderate recovery to instability during the day Monday
as the system shifts into the eastern half of the forecast area and
moderate low-level shear maintains the severe threat. 

A bit of a break behind this initial system through Wednesday before
the next system approaches by early Thursday. Will likely see a 
return of isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms as early as
Wednesday but main impacts are still centered on Thursday, lingering
into Friday. Still a bit of a spread between the main medium range
models concerning the exact track and timing of the surface and
upper-level features with this system but all show a good shot of
mild to cool air filling in behind the system going into the weekend. 



Records for 04-29

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1915     50 1999     66 1975     38 1973    
                                        1970        1928    
   KATL      88 1894     47 1934     67 2014     39 1992    
   KCSG      92 1943     57 1934     71 1970     39 1928    
   KMCN      92 2012     50 1934     68 1970     37 1992    


12Z Update...
Winds will be tricky today and continue to flirt with due south.
Only expect the easterly winds to last until mixing gets going -
then turn more southerly. Overall, winds should remain on the east
side - but could go to 190 for brief periods of time this
afternoon. BKN VFR cigs during the late morning/early afternoon.
Pops too low to mention at this time. 

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements. 


Athens          87  66  85  68 /  20  20  10  50 
Atlanta         86  68  84  67 /  20  10  10  60 
Blairsville     83  62  78  62 /  30  30  30  60 
Cartersville    87  67  84  66 /  20  10  10  70 
Columbus        89  69  87  69 /  20  10   5  60 
Gainesville     85  66  82  66 /  20  20  20  60 
Macon           90  67  88  69 /  10   5   5  30 
Rome            88  67  85  65 /  20  10  10  70 
Peachtree City  87  65  84  66 /  20   5  10  60 
Vidalia         91  69  88  70 /   5   0   5  20