000
FXUS62 KFFC 051525 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008
.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITIES OF 2000-3000 CAPES AND -5 LI`S PROGGED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SATL WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK DISTURBANCES TRACKING THRU
THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH NEARLY OVERHEAD. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD.
ALL ABOVE SUGGEST AN UPDATE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
IS WARRANTED. WILL SHOW 50-60% RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHER POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CARROLLTON TO SPARTA
LINE. WILL ALSO TWEAK HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MID 90S ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL ALL SERVE
TO HINDER STRONG DOWNBURST WIND AND HAIL THREAT TODAY. HOWEVER...
COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH WIND GUST OF 35-40 MPH.
/39
---------------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---------------
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLING OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. NAM DEVELOPS LOW DEEPER AND
FURTHER SOUTH THAN GFS/ECMWF. NAM INITIALIZED WEAK IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA BETTER
THOUGH AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MODELS LEANING TOWARD NAM IN THE
EARLIER PERIODS AND TOWARD GFS SOLUTION BY END OF SHORT TERM AS IT
SHUNTS UPPER DYNAMICS NORTHWARD...BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD
ON MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL
SHIFT SHOWERS INTO NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH PWS NEAR 1.85 AND SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD PULSE TO SEVERE CRITERIA...AS CAPES WILL BE
IN THE 2000-3000 RANGE WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6 BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
ROTATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
TOOK A BLEND OF MAV/MET TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BASED
UPON LOCAL BIASES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND SEE NO REASON TO TOO MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS
MORNING...SHOULD STAY NORTH OF METRO ATL TAF SITES. AT BEST MAY HAVE
TO CARRY VCSH AT RYY FOR AN HOUR OR SO THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR SCT
TSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON (MAINLY AFTER 17Z)...AS HEATING
BECOMES A MAJOR PLAYER. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF MAINLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN SCT TO BKN CU IN THE 5 TO 6 THSD FT RANGE DEVELOPING
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. VSBYS GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED
EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOWERING TO AROUND 5 MILES IN FOG/HAZE AT FAVORED
LOCATIONS UNTIL AROUND 13Z....THEN POSSIBLY 1 TO 3 MILES IN TSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 KTS LOOK GOOD FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT STRONGER/GUSTY IN AND AROUND TSTORMS.
49
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 88 67 86 68 89 / 40 40 40 30 20
ATLANTA 88 70 85 69 86 / 30 30 30 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 82 63 83 60 86 / 40 40 30 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 88 65 87 65 88 / 40 30 30 30 20
COLUMBUS 91 71 89 70 92 / 30 30 40 30 20
GAINESVILLE 85 67 85 67 88 / 40 40 40 30 20
MACON 91 71 89 69 91 / 40 40 40 30 30
ROME 89 68 92 67 93 / 40 30 30 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 89 66 86 66 87 / 30 30 30 30 20
VIDALIA 96 70 89 70 91 / 30 40 50 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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