000
FXUS63 KDTX 141130
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
730 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010
.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A LOW STRATUS DECK
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWEST CEILINGS SETTLING INTO SCT/BKN IFR THIS
MORNING AT PTK AND THE DETROIT TERMINALS. BETTER DIURNAL MIXING BY
MIDDAY WILL AID IN LIFTING CEILINGS INTO MVFR WITH A PREVAILING
LEVEL CLIMBING ABOVE 2K FT. GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION WILL
COMMENCE AGAIN TONIGHT ONCE MIXING CEASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWERING CEILINGS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES TODAY BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE NOTED YESTERDAY /GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS/. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT MBS WITH THE FLOW ALIGNED
WITH THE SAGINAW BAY...RESULTING IN HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL /NOTED
ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS PERSISTING OVER 25 KNOTS/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 404 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010
SHORT TERM...TODAY
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE EXPANSIVE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES INCREASINGLY STACKED AS IT SETTLES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOVEMENT WILL HELP REPOSITION THE
BETTER FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO
POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. A CONTINUED MOIST RESIDUAL
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH
SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT LIKELY /AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH/ UNDER
INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF THIS MORNING...WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CHANCES
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE FROM
YESTERDAY. LESS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND BETTER MIXING WILL
YIELD SLIGHT RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH LOWS STARTING
OUT SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN THAT
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IS LOCKED IN WITH MINIMAL INSOLATION
ANTICIPATED...THIS TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS AGAIN GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 40S.
LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.
A FINAL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A HEALTHY BOUT OF SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL DROP STEADILY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WHICH WILL SERVE TO END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE EDIT FOR THIS PERIOD WAS TO CHANGE
WORDING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. MOISTURE DEPTH
IS NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED. KEPT THE CHANCE
GOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PORT HURON TO BRIGHTON THROUGH
12Z. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
30S SOUTH.
STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
PERSISTING. TIMING THE CLEARING TREND REMAINS AN EXTREMELY TOUGH
CALL...AS THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE WIND
FIELD. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ONCE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST A
PROLIFIC DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE. THEREFORE...NOT CONCERNED
THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION...CAUSING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LONGER DURATION OF THE STRATUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST...MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.
QUIESCENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES EARLY WILL BE REPLACED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT ISN/T EVEN EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED CLOUDS (MOISTURE INCREASES AT 800-600MB BUT REMAINS
SUBSATURATED). ALL SIGNS POINT TO A WONDERFUL WEAK OF SPRING
WEATHER...HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
DIPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITHIN AN
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN. HOWEVER PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL SUSTAIN HIGHER WAVES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE. A LIGHTER NORTHERLY WIND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BETWEEN THE LOW PULLING EAST OF THE COASTLINE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
