000
FXUS63 KIND 130451
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1151 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES...BUT
FOG IS ALREADY FORMING AT KHUF AND KBMG. THESE SITES HAVE FALLEN
TO LIFR WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT. KLAF AND KIND ARE STILL
HOLDING AT MVFR...BUT ANTICIPATE THOSE TO FALL TO IFR/LIFR WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO DESPITE THE MID-LEVELS DRYING OUT.
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN LOW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN WILL
LINGER THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...BUT TAPERED IT OFF TO VCSH
AROUND SUN 04Z AS POPS DECREASE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010/
UPDATE...RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM NEW CASTLE AND
MIE STRETCHING WEST TO KOKOMO AND LAFAYETTE. DRYER AIR APPEARS TO BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE THE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF LOW. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AND HAVE LEFT ONGOING MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE DROPPED POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT WHERE SOME DRYER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM.
LOW TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010/
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS ON POPS.
AT 18Z COMPLEX SURFACE SETUP WAS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...WITH ONE WEAK LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ANOTHER
ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. AN UPPER LOW WAS NEAR KANSAS CITY WITH A
SMALLER WAVE ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE. RAIN WAS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE RAIN STRETCHING SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND.
SMALLER UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND KEEP RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW WILL ROTATE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DRY SLOT WORKS IN.
PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER WILL KEEP LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED THE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA. COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS...BUT THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ISSUES. WILL MENTION IN
HWO.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...COOLEST AIR WILL ACTUALLY BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AREAS...WHICH WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...WENT CLOSER TO
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE FORCING THE
UPPER LOW...SEEN CLEARLY ON H20 VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES/LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON SATURDAY. UPPER LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. AT LEAST THREE
SHORT WAVES WITH ATLANTIC OCEAN ORIGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SATURDAY BUT LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NAM POPS HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS IS OPPOSITE
WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. BASED ON PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST SATURDAY AND THE DECENT LIFT FROM THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE...FEEL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD ALL ZONES
SATURDAY TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.
THE EXTENDED IS LOOKING DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WAS BRINGING QPF TO
THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND MORE THAN HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING HOLDING ANY SHOWERS OFF UNTIL
AFTER FRIDAY...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED ENTIRELY DRY.
MODEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE SLIGHTLY LESS COOL GFS MOS THROUGH THE
PERIOD DESPITE THE EXPECTED THICK CLOUD COVER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD
UPDATE...JP
