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FXUS06 KWBC 241905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 30 - AUG 03, 2008
TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO BE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TROUGHS PROGGED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA/GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS-BASED
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.THE RECENT SOLUTIONS OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGS WITH MOSTLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND PHASE OF THE
MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
RESPECT TO THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN, SOUTHERN, AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF
THE CONUS, AND MOST OF ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE
SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA SHOULD CAUSE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THE EASTERN TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE
SUBSIDENCE ON THE REARSIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE OHIO AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUGGESTS ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE
MONSOONAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CAUSE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA AND EASTERN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH. MUCH OF THE REST OF
ALASKA IS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE REARSIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY
8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION TOOL, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL,
INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, AND THE
CPC AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 07 2008:
THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING WEEK 2 COMPARED TO THEIR
FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE IN
BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES.
THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTS SOME DEAMPLIFICATION TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION
PATTERN. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR
SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF.HEIGHTS OVER ALAKSA ARE PROGGED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED
FROM THOSE DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD EXPANDS EASTWARD TO OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND DURING WEEK 2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE
FORECAST TOOLS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL,
THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND THE CPC AUTO
BLEND FORECAST.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL,
THE NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND THE CPC
AUTO BLEND FORECAST.
FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800731 - 19640705 - 19690727 - 19910731 - 19950806
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800731 - 19910731 - 19640705 - 19690727 - 19950806
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 03, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 07, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N A RHODE IS N N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
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