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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS62 KFFC 200955 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE STILL THE DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE...KEEPING
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES OVER US THIS MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY. MODELS POINTING TOWARD SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO GEORGIA ON
SUNDAY BENEATH A NICELY DIFFLUENT H2 JET PATTERN. A 50 KT LLJ
ALSO BRINGS STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 21Z SUN AND 03Z MON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH STILL SEEM LIKELY FROM THIS QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM. INSTABILITY LACKING...THOUGH THE CONSIDERABLE DYNAMICS
SHOULD HELP OVERCOME THE 100-200 J/KG CAPES TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDER. THE COLD UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TOP NORTH GEORGIA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY NORTH. H8 TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES
STILL VERY CLOSE TO BEING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...
THOUGH LATEST MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN ONLY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN
THE NORTH...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL QUICKLY BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS POISED
TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH BY THIS POINT THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THAT NEXT
APPROACHING TROUGH.

RRH

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS WIND DIRECTION AFFECTING EAST-WEST 
RUNWAY OPERATION DECISIONS. CURRENTLY...SFC LOW AND FRONT WELL WEST 
OF THE AREA...LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS UP TO THE OH VALLEY. FRONT 
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND SOUTH AND SHOULD PUSH WINDS TO JUST WEST OF 
SOUTH BY THE TIME VERTICAL MIXING KICKS IN. COULD SEE SOME 3 TO 6KT 
WINDS JUST EAST OF DUE SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE 15Z...BUT SHOULD 
NOT PERSIST. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 18KTS AT KATL THIS AFTERNOON. 
CLOUDS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AROUND 6-7 
KFT MAINLY AFTER 18Z. STUCK WITH SCT BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND 
CURRENT PATTERN EVEN THOUGH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW RH HIGHER THAN 
90PCT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. CU WILL DIMINISH AROUND 
SUNSET WITH HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY THICK. MVFR TO IFR 
CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED SE WINDS 
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  50  64  42  53 /   5  10  80  60  30 
ATLANTA         73  51  63  38  50 /   5  20  80  40  30 
BLAIRSVILLE     68  45  61  39  47 /   5  10  80  70  30 
CARTERSVILLE    73  46  63  38  48 /   5  20  80  50  30 
COLUMBUS        74  50  63  42  53 /  10  30  80  30  20 
GAINESVILLE     73  50  61  41  48 /   5  10  80  60  30 
MACON           76  48  66  44  57 /   5  20  80  40  30 
ROME            74  48  63  39  50 /   5  20  80  50  30 
PEACHTREE CITY  73  44  64  39  50 /   5  20  80  40  30 
VIDALIA         77  52  68  48  62 /   0  10  80  50  20 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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