Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS75 KPSR 081956
ESFPSR
AZZALL-080000-
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1256 PM MST THU MAR 8 2010
...WATER SUPPLY SUMMARY AND HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN ARIZONA DUE TO SPRING SNOWMELT IS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SNOWMELT ALONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOOD
RELATED ISSUES...HOWEVER RECORD TO NEAR RECORD SNOWPACK EXISTS AT
SEVERAL HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE STATE...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THIS SNOWPACK COULD RESULT IN FLOODING IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE EXISTING EL NINO CLIMATE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE SPRING...LIKELY CONTINUING TO BRING WET WEATHER
SYSTEMS INTO THE STATE.
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION (OCTOBER 2009 - FEBRUARY 2010) WAS NEAR 110
PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN...110 TO 125 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE IN THE SALT-VERDE BASINS...AND NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LITTLE
COLORADO BASIN. FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 100 TO 115
PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN...70 TO 115 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE IN THE SALT-VERDE BASINS...AND 60 TO 90 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
IN THE LITTLE COLORADO BASIN.
ABOVE MEDIAN STREAMFLOW OCCURRED IN THE GILA...SALT... AND VERDE
BASINS IN FEBRUARY DUE TO GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ON MOIST SOILS AND THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW MELT. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO
DRAINAGE...STREAMFLOW WAS BELOW MEDIAN...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES
MAINTAINED THE SNOWPACK...REDUCING SNOW MELT...AND PRECIPITATION WAS
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
...HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION TO DATE...
NEAR NORMAL TO SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CURRENT RESERVOIR STORAGE...
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
MONTHLY RUNOFF FORECAST...
ABOVE MEDIAN
THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY...
2010 WATER YEAR (OCTOBER 2009 THRU FEBRUARY 2010)
BASIN / REGION SEASONAL PRECIP
PERCENT OF AVERAGE
UPPER GILA 113
SALT 122
VERDE 132
LITTLE COLORADO 136
PRECIPITATION FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE...
OCT 1 2009 THRU FEB 28 2010...
BASIN CURRENT AVERAGE
CORDES 11.00 7.32
DOUGLAS 3.96 4.49
FLAGSTAFF 11.21 10.36
MCNARY 11.34 11.57
ORGAN PIPE 4.01 4.18
PAGE 5.73 3.12
PAYSON 11.08 10.05
PHOENIX 4.27 4.04
ROOSEVELT 10.41 8.97
SAFFORD 4.77 4.09
TOMBSTONE 4.63 4.83
TUCSON 4.47 4.78
WINSLOW 3.09 2.98
SNOW PACK SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
AS REPORTED MARCH 1 2010 BY NRCS
BASIN / REGION PERCENT OF
NORMAL
SALT RIVER 227
VERDE RIVER 241
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER 223
SAN FRANCISCO - UPPER GILA RIVER 221
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS 199
CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM 233
GRAND CANYON 208
SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS 156
STATEWIDE 220
SOIL CONDITIONS...
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ANALYSIS FOR ARIZONA SHOWS SOIL MOISTURE
FOR THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE
ARE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE IS BELOW
NORMAL. SOILS REMAIN MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO
PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY...COMBINED WITH SOME LOWER
ELEVATION SNOWMELT. IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE SNOW PACK HAS
PERSISTED...SOIL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT DRIER...AND MOISTURE IS
LESS THAN THAT OBSERVED THIS TIME LAST YEAR.
RESERVOIRS...
AS OF MARCH 8 2010 UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED
RESERVOIR/SYSTEM PERCENT VOLUME IN
FULL ACRE-FT
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
LYMAN LAKE 37 11200
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE POWELL 57 13757939 MAR 7
LAKE MEAD 43 11703000 MAR 7
LAKE MOHAVE 94 1723000
LAKE HAVASU 88 560200
BILL WILLIAMS RIVER
ALAMO LAKE 20 196876
SALT RIVER
SALT SYSTEM 98 1995310
VERDE RIVER
VERDE SYSTEM 92 264331
AGUA FRIA RIVER
LAKE PLEASANT 94 796314
GILA RIVER
SAN CARLOS 14 184500
PAINTED ROCK 1 12187
CURRENT RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS...
AS OF MARCH 1 2010
STREAMFLOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE STATE ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE
LONG-TERM MEDIAN FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIVER BASIN PERCENT OF LONG-TERM MEDIAN
GILA 173
SALT 176
VERDE 222
LITTLE COLORADO 227
SPECIFIC SNOWMELT PEAK FLOW FORECASTS...
STREAM AND STATION FORECAST
PERIOD FCST %MED RMAX RMIN
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
LYMAN LK, ABV, ST. JOHNS MAR-JUN 14.0 222 26 6.0
WOODRUFF MAR-MAY 5.0 227 8.8 1.40
RIO NUTRIA RIVER
RAMAH (NR)MAR-MAY 6.0 222 14.0 1.80
ZUNI RIVER
BLACK ROCK RESERVOIR, ABVMAR-MAY 5.0 562 14.6 0.75
CEBOLLA CREEK
RAHMA RESERVOIRMAR-MAY 3.3 221 7.2 1.00
EAST CLEAR CREEK
BLUE RIDGE RESERVOIR, PINE MAR-MAY 28 219 45 12.8
CHEVELON CREEK
WINSLOW (NR), WILDCAT CYN MAR-MAY 35 267 57 18.0
CLEAR CREEK
WINSLOW (NR), AZ MAR-MAY 48 155 80 27
WALNUT CREEK
LAKE MARY MAR-MAY 12 293 19.6 6.7
GILA RIVER
GILA (NR), NM MAR-MAY 60 176 90 46
VIRDEN (NR), NM MAR-MAY 81 172 114 60
SOLOMON (NR), AZ MAR-MAY 160 152 225 114
SAN CARLOS RES, AZ MAR-MAY 110 172 162 64
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER
GLENWOOD (NR), NM MAR-MAY 40 244 69 21
CLIFTON, AZ MAR-MAY 80 190 109 51
SALT RIVER
ROOSEVELT (NR), AZ MAR-MAY 475 176 765 270
TONTO CREEK
ROOSEVELT (NR), AZ MAR-MAY 55 212 129 17.0
VERDE RIVER
HORSESHOE DAM (ABV), AZ MAR-MAY 320 222 565 158
FCST FORECAST IN THOUSANDS OF ACRE-FEET (50% EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY)
%MED FORECAST IN PERCENT OF 1971-2000 MEDIAN.
RMAX VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
****************************************************************************
FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION INCLUDING MORE DETAILED FORECAST
INFORMATION, BASIN CONDITION GRAPHICS,AND FORECAST EVOLUTION INFORMATION,
PLEASE REFER TO THE CBRFC ONLINE WATER SUPPLY PUBLICATION AT:
CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/WSUP/PUB2/MAP/HTML/CPUB.PHP
NWS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
LONG RANGE WEATHER FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY...
EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL / NEAR NORMAL / ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STATEWIDE
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE
$$
MCLANE
