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Lawrenceville Weather

Weather for West Seneca, New York

Lat: 42.84N, Lon: 78.75W
Wx Zone: NYZ010 CWA Used: BUF

New York Drought Monitor

The New York Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of New York land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

New York Drought Monitor

New York Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS71 KBUF 221613
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-051615-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1113 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH FEBRUARY 5TH...

THIS IS THE SECOND WINTER / SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE
2015 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO
EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON
CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES
SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT...CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE
AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON THEM...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...
THE REGION HAS REMAINED IN A DEEP FREEZE FOR THE MAJORITY OF 
JANUARY FOLLOWING A JAN 5TH WARM UP WHICH MELTED MOST OF THE SNOW
AND ICE FOR ALL BASINS BUT THE BLACK RIVER.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BROUGHT ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE JAN 
7TH THROUGH JAN 10TH. SINCE THEN...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF LAKE 
ERIE HAS FROZEN...WHICH WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT ELIMINATE FUTURE  
POTENTIAL. THIS EVENT BROUGHT HEAVIER SNOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH SOME PORTIONS IN THE LOWER BLACK RIVER BASIN
GETTING OVER 4 FEET OF SNOW. THIS HAD REESTABLISHED SNOW PACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MEANWHILE...THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO 
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS TIME. ICE THICKNESS EXCEEDS 6 
INCHES ON MOST CREEKS AND RIVERS AND IS OVER A FOOT ON SOME 
WATERWAYS.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK BY BASIN AS OF 
THURSDAY MORNING ON JANUARY 22ND:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........6 TO 12 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....2 TO 3 INCHES.
.CREEK FLOWS.........NEAR NORMAL.
.CREEK ICE...........MODERATE
.GROUND FROST........ABOUT 12 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........2 TO 6 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....AN INCH OR LESS.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....THIN TO MODERATE...LESS IN FAST FLOWING AREAS.
.GROUND FROST........6 TO 12 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........4 TO 8 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 TO 2 INCHES.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....MODERATE.
.GROUND FROST........ABOUT 12 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........10 TO 20 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....2 TO 4 INCHES...4 TO 6 INCHES NORTHERN
                     PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....THICK IN MOST AREAS.
.GROUND FROST........18 TO 24 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
A COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY BELOW FREEZING. MODEL GUIDANCE ESTABLISHES
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.

MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS OUR REGION JUST WEST OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS 
POSITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD. THIS PATTERN 
TYPICALLY WOULD RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 
FREQUENT BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS. WHAT PRECIPITATION DOES
FALL SHOULD PRIMARILY BE SNOW. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MODEL
AGREEMENT...THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

SINCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TENDS TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...THERE IS A 
SMALL CHANCE A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD 
LEAVE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A WARMER TRACKING SYSTEM...BUT BY FAR 
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN COLD 
PATTEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
THERE IS BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS THROUGH
FEBRUARY 5TH. CURRENT SNOWPACK AND ICE IS NEAR NORMAL AND ALTHOUGH
SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE THIS...THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE A WARM TRACKING SYSTEM TO
THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL
AS SNOW. HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN 
IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THERE IS A VERY SMALL 
CHANCE THAT ONE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A WARM TRACK DURING THE LATTER 
PORTION OF THE TIME PERIOD.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE
FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF BY CLICKING ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE. SINCE
CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS...WATCHES...AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 5TH. THANKS TO ALL THE
OBSERVERS AND AGENCIES WHICH HAVE HELPED GATHER DATA IN SUPPORT OF
THIS OUTLOOK.

$$

APFFEL