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Lawrenceville Weather

Weather for West Seneca, New York

Lat: 42.84N, Lon: 78.75W
Wx Zone: NYZ010 CWA Used: BUF

New York Drought Monitor

The New York Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of New York land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

New York Drought Monitor

New York Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

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FGUS71 KBUF 191703
ESFBUF
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1203 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR MOST BASINS WITH NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR THE BLACK RIVER BASIN THROUGH FEBRUARY 2ND...

This is the second flood potential outlook of the 2017 season.
Flood outlooks will be issued every two weeks into early spring to
summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for
flooding. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and
water equivalent, creek and river levels and the amount of ice on
them, along with the expected conditions during the next two
weeks.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY... 

A significant rainstorm and warm up during January 11-13 melted the
vast majority of the snowpack in the Buffalo Creeks and the Genesee
and Allegheny River basins. This resulted in minor flooding, and
also flushed out nearly all the ice which had developed on area
rivers and creeks.

It was not as warm across the Black River basin and as a result a
significant snow pack still remains. Snow water equivalent (SWE)
values vary considerably, with generally light amounts across
lower terrain and significantly more on the Tug Hill and across
higher terrain. When averaged out, SWE is relatively near normal
for the Black River Basin.

The following is a summary of the conditions by basin as of
Thursday morning, January 19th:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........Mainly bare, patchy up to 3 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Mainly zero, patchy up to 1.5 inches.
.CREEK FLOWS.........Above normal.
.CREEK ICE...........None.
.GROUND FROST........Less than 3 inches.
.GROUND STATE........Partially frozen.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Above normal.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........Less than 3 inches.
.GROUND STATE........Partially frozen.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........Less than 3 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than an inch.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Above normal.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........Less than 3 inches.
.GROUND STATE........Partially frozen.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........Less than 3 inches, 10 to 20 inches on the Tug
Hill.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than an inch, 3 to 6 inches on the Tug
Hill.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Near normal.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....Mostly frozen.
.GROUND FROST........4 to 8 inches.
.GROUND STATE........Frozen.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... 

The region will remain in a warm pattern through the coming weekend,
with above normal temperatures but no significant precipitation. The
main risk for flooding over the next two weeks will be early next
week when strong low pressure is forecast to track from the
Southeastern states up the Eastern seaboard. There is high
confidence that the system will develop, and that it will bring a
significant amount of precipitation to the Northeast in the
Monday and Tuesday timeframe. The heaviest precipitation is likely
to be across eastern New York which will be closer to the system.
Temperatures are also uncertain, with either rain or snow possible
from this system. This does not appear to be an exceptionally warm
system. Precipitation amounts from this storm are likely to
average around an inch, and possibly more across the Black River
Basin.

After this, temperatures are expected to cool closer to normal for
late January. Even if these are slightly above normal, temperatures
should be mainly below freezing which will limit snow melt. The
pattern is expected to be predominantly northwesterly flow, which
is unlikely to produce a heavy rain event.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... 

Flood risk during the next two weeks is below normal for most
basins, except near normal for the Black River Basin.

Snow pack for the Buffalo creeks and the Genesee and Allegheny river
basins is next to nothing. There is a small chance a system early
next week will bring ample rain to cause flooding, but with no snow
pack and the potential for some of this falling as snow the risk is
small for these basins.  Current river levels are high now, but
should lower some by the time this system arrives.

It is a different story for the Black River basin which still does
have a significant snow pack in place. Although precipitation type
is uncertain, there is a potential that the system will be warm
enough to cause some snow melt in addition to the rainfall. The
snow pack is also relatively ripe for this time of year, with a
mean snow depth to snow water equivalent ratio of 3 to 1. Also,
precipitation amounts are likely to be the highest in this region.
The main risk for flooding would be during the early to middle
portions of next week, as a result of this storm system.

After this, the pattern is likely to be cold enough to limit the
melting of the snow pack. Also, the pattern is not favorable for
producing heavy rain in our region with a below normal risk for
flooding late next week through early February.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for
specific locations along rivers across Western New York can be
found on the internet at www.weather.gov/buf. Since conditions can
change, please refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and
statements for additional information.

Thank you to all the observers and agencies which have helped
gather data in support of this outlook. The next Winter/Spring
Flood Outlook will be issued on February 2nd.

$$

Apffel