Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KDTX 051949
ESFDTX
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-145-155-157-161-163-061200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
250 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2010
...2010 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND INCLUDES THE RIVERS IN THE SAGINAW
RIVER BASIN AND THE CLINTON...ROUGE...HURON AND RIVER RAISIN BASINS.
THE SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN ADDITION
TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST
LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE DETROIT/PONTIAC OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL
THE MODEL LOCATIONS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED BASINS. AHPS ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET
AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE CHANCES OF REACHING MINOR...
MODERATE...MAJOR FLOODING AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT 90 DAYS
VALID 3/9/2010 - 6/7/2010
DEP FROM
---------FLOOD STAGES--------- NORMAL
MINOR MODERATE MAJOR OF REACHING
LOCATION STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT FLOOD STAGE
---------------------------------------------------------------------
PINE RIVER AT MIDLAND 7SW (MPRM4)
12 --- 14 --- 16 --- N/A
TITTABAWASSEE RIVER AT MIDLAND (MIDM4)
24 6% 28 1% 30 1% NEAR NORMAL
SHIAWASSEE RIVER AT OWOSSO 2NW - WWTP (OWOM4)
7 29% 9 --- 10 --- NEAR NORMAL
SHIAWASSEE RIVER AT FERGUS 1E (FRGM4)
10 26% 14 --- 15 --- NEAR NORMAL
KEARSLEY CREEK AT DAVISON 3W (DAVM4)
10 4% 11 --- 12 --- 8% LESS
FLINT RIVER AT FLINT 7W - WWTP (FLTM4)
13 3% 14 --- 15 --- NEAR NORMAL
CASS RIVER AT CASS CITY 1SSW - WWTP (CSSM4)
14 3% 18 1% 20 --- NEAR NORMAL
CASS RIVER AT VASSAR WWTP (VSSM4)
14 4% 15 4% 18 1% NEAR NORMAL
CASS RIVER AT FRANKENMUTH WWTP (FRNM4)
17 18% 20 4% 25 1% NEAR NORMAL
SAGINAW RIVER AT SAGINAW (SAGM4)
17 26% 19 8% 24 --- NEAR NORMAL
STG = STAGE (FEET)
PCT = PERCENT
--- = DISTRIBUTION COMPLETELY BELOW THIS STAGE
DEP = DEPARTURE
DEP FROM
---------FLOOD STAGES--------- NORMAL
MINOR MODERATE MAJOR OF REACHING
LOCATION STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT FLOOD STAGE
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CLINTON RIVER AT CLINTON TOWNSHIP (FSRM4)
16 1% 17 --- 19 --- NEAR NORMAL
NORTH BRANCH CLINTON RIVER AT MT CLEMENS 2N (MCLM4)
15 11% 16 4% 20 --- NEAR NORMAL
CLINTON RIVER AT MT CLEMENS 2WNW (MTCM4)
16 --- 17 --- 18 --- N/A
RIVER ROUGE AT DETROIT (DETM4)
15 21% 17 1% 18 1% NEAR NORMAL
MIDDLE RIVER ROUGE AT GARDEN CITY 2NE (GACM4)
10 --- 11 --- 12 --- N/A
LOWER RIVER ROUGE AT INKSTER (INKM4)
10 13% 12 --- 14 --- 7% LESS
MILL CREEK AT DEXTER 2S (DEXM4)
12 11% 13 1% 14 1% NEAR NORMAL
HURON RIVER AT HAMBURG 1N (HMGM4)
6.5 63% 7 36% 7.5 18% 7% GREATER
HURON RIVER AT ANN ARBOR (ANNM4)
16 --- 17 --- 18 --- N/A
RIVER RAISIN AT TECUMSEH WWTP & 4S (TECM4)
13 --- 14 --- 15 --- N/A
RIVER RAISIN AT ADRIAN 2E (ADRM4)
18 --- 19 --- 20 --- N/A
RIVER RAISIN AT BLISSFIELD 1SW (BLIM4)
683 14% 685 1% 687 --- NEAR NORMAL
RIVER RAISIN AT DUNDEE WWTP (DNDM4)
650 11% 652 --- 653 --- NEAR NORMAL
RIVER RAISIN AT MONROE WTP (MONM4)
9 13% 10 --- 11 --- NEAR NORMAL
STG = STAGE (FEET)
PCT = PERCENT
--- = DISTRIBUTION COMPLETELY BELOW THIS STAGE
DEP = DEPARTURE
...PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE... AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID 3/8/2010 - 6/6/2010 :
: 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:PINE R
MIDLAND 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 5.1/ 5.2/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.3
:TITTABAWASSEE R
MIDLAND 17.2/ 18.4/ 18.7/ 19.5/ 19.8/ 20.3/ 21.3/ 22.0/ 23.4
:SHIAWASSEE R
OWOSSO 5.3/ 5.6/ 6.1/ 6.3/ 6.4/ 6.7/ 7.0/ 7.2/ 8.0
FERGUS 7.6/ 8.3/ 8.7/ 9.0/ 9.4/ 9.5/ 9.9/ 11.0/ 12.0
:KEARSLEY CR
DAVISON 7.0/ 7.4/ 7.8/ 8.1/ 8.4/ 8.7/ 9.1/ 9.4/ 9.8
:FLINT R
FLINT 7.7/ 8.4/ 8.7/ 9.1/ 9.4/ 9.7/ 10.6/ 10.9/ 12.0
:CASS R
CASS 8.3/ 9.0/ 9.2/ 9.5/ 9.7/ 9.9/ 10.2/ 10.6/ 11.3
CITY
VASSAR 7.8/ 8.6/ 9.0/ 9.6/ 9.9/ 10.2/ 10.6/ 11.5/ 13.1
FRANKEN 12.8/ 13.8/ 14.3/ 14.9/ 15.3/ 15.6/ 15.9/ 16.8/ 18.2
MUTH
:SAGINAW R
SAGINAW 15.0/ 15.4/ 15.8/ 16.2/ 16.4/ 16.6/ 16.9/ 17.5/ 18.8
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID 3/9/2010 - 6/7/2010 :
: 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MILL CR
AVOCA 5.3/ 5.5/ 5.9/ 6.1/ 6.3/ 6.6/ 6.9/ 7.3/ 7.5
:BLACK R
JEDDO 7.9/ 8.7/ 9.0/ 9.5/ 10.0/ 10.6/ 11.2/ 12.3/ 13.7
:CLINTON R
CLINTON 11.6/ 12.3/ 13.7/ 14.1/ 14.2/ 14.5/ 14.6/ 15.0/ 15.7
TOWNSHIP
:N BR CLINTON R
MT 10.9/ 11.4/ 11.8/ 12.4/ 12.8/ 13.1/ 13.5/ 13.9/ 15.5
CLEMENS
:CLINTON R
MT 7.8/ 8.6/ 9.0/ 9.5/ 9.8/ 10.1/ 10.4/ 11.0/ 12.7
CLEMENS
:ROUGE R
DETROIT 11.1/ 12.3/ 12.9/ 13.5/ 13.8/ 14.2/ 14.5/ 15.3/ 15.8
:MIDDLE ROUGE R
DEARBORN 6.0/ 6.5/ 6.9/ 7.4/ 7.6/ 7.9/ 8.3/ 8.5/ 8.9
HTS
:LOWER ROUGE R
INKSTER 6.3/ 7.1/ 7.5/ 7.8/ 8.1/ 8.4/ 8.6/ 9.4/ 10.5
:MILL CR
DEXTER 9.1/ 9.4/ 9.6/ 9.8/ 10.1/ 10.4/ 10.7/ 11.0/ 12.2
:HURON R
HAMBURG 6.0/ 6.2/ 6.4/ 6.6/ 6.7/ 6.9/ 7.1/ 7.5/ 7.8
ANN 13.8/ 14.1/ 14.2/ 14.3/ 14.4/ 14.6/ 14.8/ 15.0/ 15.5
ARBOR
:RAISIN R
TECUMSEH 8.4/ 8.8/ 9.0/ 9.1/ 9.4/ 9.5/ 9.6/ 10.0/ 10.3
ADRIAN 10.0/ 10.7/ 11.1/ 11.3/ 11.6/ 11.9/ 12.1/ 12.6/ 13.6
BLISS 679.5/ 680.3/ 680.6/ 680.9/ 681.2/ 681.7/ 682.1/ 682.5/ 683.8
FIELD
DUNDEE 644.2/ 644.8/ 645.2/ 645.7/ 646.1/ 646.8/ 647.7/ 648.7/ 650.5
MONROE 7.6/ 7.8/ 7.9/ 8.0/ 8.2/ 8.5/ 8.7/ 8.8/ 9.2
...PAST PRECIPITATION...
THE FALL AND EARLY WINTER HAS AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AND SNOWFALL.
...RIVER CONDITIONS...
CURRENTLY RIVER LEVELS ARE LOW TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIVERS ARE PARTIALLY ICE COVERED.
...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...
SOIL MOISTURE IS RUNNING NORMAL TO BELOW. FROST DEPTH AVERAGED
AROUND TWO FEET.
...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
SNOW COVER RANGED GENERALLY 3 TO 8 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
RANGED AROUND ONE INCH.
...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
THE RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW AND THE SOIL IS NOT SATURATED. THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY FOR RIVER FLOODING FOR MOST RIVERS IN THE NEXT 90
DAYS DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...ICE JAMS ARE A
DIFFERENT STORY AND CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES AND FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTW/(INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL LOWER
CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH...NEAR THE
END OF THE MONTH...THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
$$
DRC
