Weather for Topeka, Kansas
Lat: 39.05N, Lon: 95.68W
Wx Zone: KSZ039
CWA Used: TOP
Kansas Drought MonitorThe Kansas Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Kansas land area in each drought level compared to the previous week. Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean. |
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Kansas Hydrologic Information StatementNote that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KTOP 251605
ESFTOP
KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177-
197-201-DDHHMM-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1104 AM CDT THU APR 25 2013
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 4/27/2013 - 7/26/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BIG BLUE RIVER
MARYSVILLE 35.0 38.2 43.0 : 13 17 5 10 <5 <5
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
HOLLENBERG 19.0 19.4 45.0 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MILL CREEK
WASHINGTON 18.0 19.0 35.0 : 45 41 34 34 <5 <5
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
BARNES 16.0 33.0 38.0 : 49 57 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG BLUE RIVER
BLUE RAPIDS 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 73 77 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER
FRANKFORT 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 66 57 14 13 <5 <5
:FANCY CREEK
RANDOLPH 16.0 24.0 40.0 : 35 27 12 13 <5 <5
:CHAPMAN CREEK
CHAPMAN 19.0 26.0 37.0 : 30 38 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LYON CREEK
WOODBINE 17.0 28.0 40.0 : 31 49 7 17 <5 <5
:VERMILLION CREEK
LOUISVILLE 30.0 34.0 44.0 : 45 55 33 40 <5 <5
:ROCK CREEK
LOUISVILLE 27.0 33.0 43.0 : 13 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CROSS CREEK
ROSSVILLE 25.0 29.0 31.0 : 36 37 5 5 <5 <5
:MILL CREEK
PAXICO 21.0 31.0 33.0 : 20 46 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOLDIER CREEK
DELIA 26.0 26.5 29.5 : 22 22 18 15 <5 <5
TOPEKA 4NW 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
SCANDIA 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 8 10 <5 6 <5 <5
:BUFFALO CREEK
JAMESTOWN 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 35 39 6 7 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CONCORDIA 15.0 18.0 30.0 : 10 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ELK CREEK
CLYDE 14.0 22.0 36.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CLAY CENTER 15.0 21.0 28.0 : 43 44 5 6 <5 <5
:MUD CREEK
ABILENE 15.0 27.0 33.0 : 11 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
READING 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 37 42 32 39 <5 <5
:SALT CREEK
LYNDON 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 13 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK
SCIPIO 1SE 23.0 25.0 38.0 : 56 58 40 43 <5 <5
LANE 23.0 24.0 28.5 : 46 51 39 37 <5 5
:TURKEY CREEK
SENECA 8NW 21.0 23.5 40.0 : 20 25 9 15 <5 <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPORIA 20.0 24.0 32.0 : 39 48 26 29 <5 <5
:NEOSHO RIVER
AMERICUS 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 17 18 9 13 <5 <5
EMPORIA 3NW 19.0 19.5 30.5 : 34 34 32 31 <5 <5
NEOSHO RAPIDS 22.0 23.0 44.0 : 35 46 32 40 <5 <5
BURLINGTON 27.0 40.0 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEROY 23.0 23.0 38.0 : 31 34 31 34 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 4/27/2013 - 7/26/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BIG BLUE RIVER
MARYSVILLE 15.1 16.6 20.8 26.5 30.0 36.3 38.4
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
HOLLENBERG 4.9 5.4 7.3 10.7 13.6 16.5 18.7
:MILL CREEK
WASHINGTON 4.1 5.0 9.9 16.9 20.0 24.6 25.7
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
BARNES 6.6 8.6 11.2 15.2 19.3 22.5 25.7
:BIG BLUE RIVER
BLUE RAPIDS 19.6 21.0 25.3 30.2 34.0 39.7 43.8
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER
FRANKFORT 6.7 10.4 17.1 22.0 26.2 28.1 28.2
:FANCY CREEK
RANDOLPH 6.9 9.5 11.3 13.5 19.2 25.8 26.4
:CHAPMAN CREEK
CHAPMAN 4.5 5.7 7.1 12.3 20.0 22.0 22.6
:LYON CREEK
WOODBINE 1.6 3.8 8.4 11.4 21.9 27.5 29.1
:VERMILLION CREEK
LOUISVILLE 9.0 13.4 18.7 25.6 36.5 40.0 41.6
:ROCK CREEK
LOUISVILLE 10.9 12.0 14.5 18.4 24.4 28.0 29.5
:CROSS CREEK
ROSSVILLE 9.4 10.9 14.8 19.3 25.9 28.5 29.2
:MILL CREEK
PAXICO 3.9 4.1 5.6 8.4 14.2 25.7 28.4
:SOLDIER CREEK
DELIA 8.0 9.5 12.9 20.3 25.2 27.7 28.1
TOPEKA 4NW 1.5 2.3 6.0 11.0 14.0 19.8 22.9
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
SCANDIA 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.2 6.2 9.3 11.8
:BUFFALO CREEK
JAMESTOWN 7.2 7.8 10.5 14.0 17.4 18.1 19.5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CONCORDIA 6.5 6.9 7.9 9.3 11.5 14.8 17.2
:ELK CREEK
CLYDE 5.0 5.4 5.9 7.0 7.9 11.1 14.1
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CLAY CENTER 9.6 10.1 10.9 14.0 16.9 19.8 21.1
:MUD CREEK
ABILENE 1.5 1.9 3.1 5.4 11.5 15.1 17.6
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
READING 3.3 3.7 4.6 14.4 22.1 24.0 25.5
:SALT CREEK
LYNDON 0.7 1.2 1.6 3.8 7.6 12.0 15.4
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK
SCIPIO 1SE 6.0 8.6 14.5 24.6 26.4 27.2 27.5
LANE 9.2 11.3 16.6 23.0 25.8 27.1 28.0
:TURKEY CREEK
SENECA 8NW 4.4 5.4 9.3 12.9 19.2 23.4 25.0
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPORIA 3.7 5.1 9.0 16.4 24.6 25.9 26.5
:NEOSHO RIVER
AMERICUS 5.7 6.1 9.1 13.5 25.1 27.0 28.3
EMPORIA 3NW 10.4 10.7 12.5 14.2 21.8 24.2 24.9
NEOSHO RAPIDS 3.3 5.1 9.8 17.5 25.5 26.8 27.1
BURLINGTON 9.5 9.8 12.9 16.6 18.5 20.5 22.0
LEROY 6.6 8.9 14.8 18.9 24.3 27.4 28.9
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/TOP FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE MAY.
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