Weather for Taylorsville, Kentucky
Lat: 38.03N, Lon: 85.34W
Wx Zone: KYZ038
CWA Used: LMK
Kentucky Drought MonitorThe Kentucky Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Kentucky land area in each drought level compared to the previous week. Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean. |
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Kentucky Hydrologic Information StatementNote that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KLMK 051204
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-111200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
802 AM EDT FRI APR 05 2013
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor, moderate, and major flooding...
Valid Period: 4/8/2013 - 7/7/2013
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 451.0 457.0 470.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Cannelton Lock 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 23 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
McAlpine Lower 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 13 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
McAlpine Upper 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 17 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
Tell City 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 42 31 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 36 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Green River
Brownsville 18.0 32.0 41.0 : 14 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
Munfordville 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 12 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
Rochester 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 34 24 5 5 <5 <5
Woodbury 33.0 45.0 48.0 : 34 29 5 5 <5 <5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 22 21 8 8 <5 <5
:Barren River
Bowling Green 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 7 7 5 5 <5 <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 26 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Rough River
Dundee 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 19 20 9 9 <5 <5
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 8 8 6 6 <5 <5
Ford Lock 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
High Bridge Lock 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 9 9 7 7 5 5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 15 15 8 8 <5 <5
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 32.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 4/8/2013 - 7/7/2013
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 426.2 430.8 433.1 439.3 443.7 449.1 450.5
Cannelton Lock 21.7 27.4 30.3 37.8 41.8 44.0 44.4
McAlpine Lower 26.1 33.3 36.8 45.2 50.4 56.5 58.0
McAlpine Upper 12.5 13.1 14.5 17.4 20.3 25.5 26.9
Tell City 21.4 26.2 29.2 36.6 41.3 43.4 43.7
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 18.5 18.7 19.8 22.3 27.2 31.1 32.0
:Green River
Brownsville 10.7 11.2 12.3 13.7 15.2 19.2 24.6
Munfordville 6.3 8.1 10.6 13.4 18.6 29.5 34.2
Rochester 11.4 11.9 13.1 15.3 18.0 23.2 25.2
Woodbury 14.3 15.9 21.1 29.5 35.1 41.0 45.2
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 9.7 13.5 19.5 26.1 33.8 41.2 45.0
:Barren River
Bowling Green 8.1 9.2 12.8 15.1 20.4 24.4 32.7
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 6.9 7.4 8.4 10.4 14.3 18.3 20.1
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 9.1 9.8 11.5 17.5 20.2 22.2 24.1
:Rough River
Dundee 11.3 13.8 15.8 19.0 23.2 27.9 28.8
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock 10.7 11.6 12.1 15.3 21.8 27.2 37.9
Ford Lock 14.4 15.7 16.9 18.6 20.7 24.1 30.6
High Bridge Lock 15.0 16.4 16.9 19.6 23.5 29.4 39.6
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 4.8 5.5 7.0 8.5 14.7 23.4 25.0
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 4.5 5.0 5.5 8.0 12.4 21.1 28.5
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service (AHPS).
Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued April 11.
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