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Lawrenceville Weather

Weather for Sterling, Colorado

Lat: 40.65N, Lon: 103.2W
Wx Zone: COZ048 CWA Used: BOU

Colorado Drought Monitor

The Colorado Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Colorado land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Colorado Drought Monitor

Colorado Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS75 KBOU 251800
ESFBOU
COC001-031-035-057-059-069-087-115-123-302359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1159 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... 
                  VALID PERIOD:  6/28/2014 - 9/30/2014            
      
                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
SOUTH PLATTE         7.0    9.0   11.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DENVER              11.0   12.5   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HENDERSON           10.0   11.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
KERSEY              10.0   11.5   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WELDONA             10.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BALZAC              10.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
JULESBURG           10.0   12.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLUM CREEK
SEDALIA              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAR CREEK
MORRISON             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SHERIDAN             8.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CLEAR CREEK
GOLDEN              10.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DERBY                9.0   10.5   11.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:N FK BIG THOMPSON RIVER
DRAKE                6.0    7.0    8.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
FORT COLLINS 9NW     7.5    9.0   10.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FORT COLLINS        10.5   11.5   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GREELEY              8.0    9.5   11.0 :   5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE RIVER
NORTHGATE            8.0    9.5   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                    CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD:  6/28/2014 - 9/30/2014
                         
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
SOUTH PLATTE          4.1    4.1    4.2    4.3    4.5    4.8    5.1
DENVER                4.4    4.5    4.8    5.2    5.6    6.1    6.6
HENDERSON             6.0    6.2    6.3    6.9    7.3    7.9    8.2
KERSEY                5.1    5.1    5.1    5.6    6.3    7.2    9.0
WELDONA               4.2    4.2    4.2    4.5    5.1    5.8    7.7
BALZAC                3.4    3.4    3.4    4.0    5.5    7.1    8.5
JULESBURG             4.4    4.4    4.7    5.8    6.7    7.7    8.2
:PLUM CREEK
SEDALIA               4.2    4.3    4.4    4.6    4.7    4.9    5.2
:BEAR CREEK
MORRISON              6.4    6.4    6.5    6.6    6.7    6.9    7.1
SHERIDAN              2.7    2.8    2.9    3.1    3.4    3.8    4.0
:CLEAR CREEK
GOLDEN                6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4    6.5
DERBY                 3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    4.0    4.2
:N FK BIG THOMPSON RIVER
DRAKE                 4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.5
:CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
FORT COLLINS 9NW      5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.1    5.3    5.8
FORT COLLINS          3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.8    4.6    7.1
GREELEY               3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    4.0    4.9    8.2
:NORTH PLATTE RIVER
NORTHGATE             4.8    4.8    4.8    5.1    5.3    5.6    5.9

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT 
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS 
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE 
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE 
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE 
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC 
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT 
ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/BOU.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF JULY.

$$
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