Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS74 KBRO 051951
ESFBRO
TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-052300-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
150 PM CDT FRI MAR 5 2010
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS
SPRING ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...
...EXISTING CONDITIONS...
..FEBRUARY AND WINTER CLIMATE ROUNDUP FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
RECORD DATES FOR EACH LOCATION ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BROWNSVILLE RECORDS BEGAN 1878...
HARLINGEN RECORDS BEGAN 1911...
MCALLEN RECORDS BEGAN 1941...
BROWNSVILLE AIRPORT RECEIVED 4.09 INCHES OF RAIN IN FEBRUARY...2.90
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS THE 6TH WETTEST FEBRUARY IN BROWNSVILLE
HISTORY. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR WINTER 2009-2010 WAS 10.34
INCHES...6.69 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS THE SECOND WETTEST WINTER
ON RECORD...BEHIND ONLY 15.50 INCHES IN 1957.
HARLINGEN AIRPORT RECEIVED 2.09 INCHES OF RAIN IN FEBRUARY...0.26
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS TIED FOR THE 13TH WETTEST FEBRUARY IN
HARLINGEN. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR WINTER 2009-2010 WAS 6.26
INCHES...1.51 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS THE 15TH WETTEST WINTER
ON RECORD FOR HARLINGEN.
MCALLEN AIRPORT RECEIVED 2.66 INCHES OF RAIN IN FEBRUARY...1.33
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS THE 8TH WETTEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR WINTER 2009-2010 WAS 8.30 INCHES...4.54
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS THE 4TH WETTEST WINTER ON RECORD FOR
MCALLEN.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING
THE PAST 6 MONTHS, SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED FAVORABLY
TO ABNORMALLY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED
STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL...AND TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION
SERVICE AGENTS..."ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE REGION HAS
SET BACK THE 2010 PLANTING SEASON. SUGARCANE HARVEST WAS AT A HALT
AND CITRUS AND VEGETABLE HARVESTS SLOWED BECAUSE OF WET FIELD
CONDITIONS."
RIVER AND STREAMS - RIVER AND STREAMS LEVELS ARE NORMAL ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. BENEFICIAL RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER NEARBY
BASINS SINCE THE FALL OF 2009.
RESERVOIRS LEVELS - FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIRS PROVIDE MUCH OF
THE WATER FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENTLY...STORAGE AT
AMISTAD IS AT 97 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION LEVEL. FALCON
RESERVOIR IS HOLDING 68 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. NEARBY
MEXICAN RESERVOIRS WHICH ARE WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ARE HOLDING
ABOVE NORMAL STORAGE LEVELS. EL CUCHILLO RESERVOIR IS CURRENTLY
HOLDING NEAR NORMAL CONSERVATION LEVEL, WITH MARTE GOMEZ HOLDING
AT 81 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION.
AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL WINTER RAINS AND
CURRENT SATURATED SOILS, IRRIGATION WATER DEMAND WILL LIKELY HAVE A
BELOW NORMAL IMPACT ON STORAGE LEVELS AT FALCON RESERVOIR.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST UNITED STATES DROUGHT
MONITOR, ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WERE LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF
ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. IMPROVEMENTS TO THESE AREAS AND THE REST
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SPRING 2010.
METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
NORMALLY MARCH IS THE DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR RAINFALL IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. ACCORDING THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IN THE NEAR
TERM (MAR 10 - MAR 18), CONTINUED EL NINO CONDITIONS AND AN ENHANCED
SOUTHERN STREAM FAVOR NORMAL TO ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK...
THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY OF
2010...DERIVED FROM GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN THE SHORT-RANGE AND MEDIUM-RANGE FORECASTS
WHICH WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
DUE TO THE EXPECTED MODERATE TO WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS, RECENT
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND SATURATED SOILS, SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HYDROLOGIC AREA IS CONSIDERED ABOVE
NORMAL. ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS THROUGH EARLY SPRING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE OR LOW
LYING AREAS.
INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER, CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER, INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION
(IBWC), USDA, TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE, UNITED STATES
DROUGHT MONITOR, TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ).
FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA...VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB
SITE AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO
$$
VEGA/STRAUB/CASTILLO
