Florida Drought Monitor

000
FGUS72 KTAE 071754
ESFTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-081800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1254 PM EST THU MAR 7 2013 /1154 AM CST THU MAR 7 2013/

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

...ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...
AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY WINTER...THE EARLY SPRING SEASON BROUGHT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE BIG BEND.
MOST SITES WITHIN THE AREA HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 12 AND 20 INCHES
OF RAIN SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY WITH TALLAHASSEE RECORDING THEIR
WETTEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIVER BASINS IN
OUR REGION.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS ARE VERY MOIST FROM THE RECENT RAINS AND MANY PONDS AND SMALL
LAKES ARE ALSO FULL...AS ARE MANY OF THE SMALLER CREEKS AND
TRIBUTARIES. THIS SUGGESTS LIMITED CAPACITY TO HOLD FURTHER
RAINFALL THIS SPRING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN INCREASED DIRECT
RUNOFF INTO THE PRIMARY DRAINAGE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SPRING AND
INTO THE EARLY SUMMER.

...CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER REMAINS AT FLOOD STAGE. WATER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUWANNEE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH AS ROUTED FLOWS FROM HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TRAVEL DOWN RIVER. EVEN WITHOUT THE
EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT THE END OF FEBRUARY...STREAMFLOWS
USUALLY TREND HIGHER THIS TIME OF YEAR ANYWAY...BUT THE RECENT
RAINFALL LED TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
THIS HAS ALSO BROUGHT ALL RIVERS WELL ABOVE BASE FLOWS.

...RESERVOIRS...
MOST RESERVOIRS ARE ABOVE THEIR TARGET POOL AND ARE CONTINUING
STRATEGIC RELEASES TO MANAGE ANY REMAINING RUNOFF FROM FEBRUARY'S
RAINS AND INCREASE CAPACITY FOR FUTURE SPRING STORMS. THE LONGER
TERM FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH-APRIL-MAY
ISSUED FROM THE CPC IN LATE FEBRUARY SUGGESTS POOLS MAY BEGIN TO
DROP THROUGH THE SPRING.

...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 
ISSUED IN LATE FEBRUARY SUGGESTS GREATER CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION. SEE CPC WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGIES FOR THE FLINT...APALACHICOLA...PEA...
CHIPOLA...SHOAL...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...OCHLOCKONEE AND SUWANNEE
WATERSHEDS WHICH INCLUDE THEIR ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES
SUGGEST THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING TYPICALLY PEAKS FROM EARLY
MARCH THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN APRIL ON AVERAGE.

REGARDLESS OF THE CLIMATE FORECAST...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM ANY SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL EXACERBATE THE ALREADY ELEVATED
FLOWS WITHIN THE WATERSHED. THEREFORE...BASED ON THE COMBINATION
OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH GROUND
WATER CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THIS SPRING. SHOULD THE DRIER THAN NORMAL
SPRING PREDICTION VERIFY...RIVER FLOWS WOULD LIKELY RETURN TO BASE
LEVELS AND CREATE A DECREASING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR MAY THAT WOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE SUMMER.

&&

INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS 
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...CLIMATE 
PREDICTION CENTER AND THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND
FORECASTS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND...

GO TO: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE 
AND UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS ...CLICK ON "RIVERS & LAKES"/

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...
GO TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

$$

EVANS/GODSEY