Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS75 KFGZ 192010
ESFFGZ
AZZ008-018-037-038-201300-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
110 PM MST TUE JAN 19 2010
...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK...
A SERIES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST AND MOST DANGEROUS OF THE WEEKS SERIES OF STORMS AND
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WHICH ARE BELOW THE SNOW LEVEL...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 8 INCHES OR
MORE OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL OF
THIS MAGNITUDE IN SUCH A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING.
THE FOLLOWING SUMMARIZES RIVERS OF CONCERN. CRESTS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- OAK CREEK AT SEDONA MAY RISE TO 11 FEET (FLOOD STAGE 14 FEET)
- OAK CREEK AT CORNVILLE MAY RISE TO 16 FEET (FLOOD STAGE 9 FEET)
- VERDE RIVER AT CLARKDALE MAY RISE TO 24 FEET (FLOOD STAGE 14
FEET)
- AGUA FRIA RIVER NEAR BLACK CANYON CITY MAY RISE TO 30 FEET
(FLOOD STAGE 16 FEET)
- SANTA MARIA RIVER NEAR BAGDAD MAY RISE TO 10 FEET (RECORD STAGE
9 FEET)
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SEDONA...FLOODING EXPERIENCED DURING THIS
EVENT MAY BE SIMILAR TO THE FLOODING THAT WAS EXPERIENCED DURING
THE WINTER OF 2004/2005. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE ESTIMATES...IT
IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THESE ARE ESTIMATES FOR SINGLE POINTS.
FLOODING MAY OCCUR ALONG THESE RIVERS AND CREEKS BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FORECAST POINTS.
IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING...MANY OF THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES...
CREEKS...WASHES...AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS YAVAPAI AND
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY BELOW THE SNOW LEVEL MAY EXPERIENCE RAPID
WATER RISES OR FLASH FLOODING. PERSONS LIVING OR WORKING ALONG OR
NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS...WASHES...OR LOCATIONS OF POOR DRAINAGE
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.
HAVE A PLAN AND KNOW AHEAD OF TIME WHAT TO DO IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. FLOOD SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.FLOODSAFETY.NOAA.GOV.
THIS FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AND HOW HIGH
THE SNOW LEVELS RISE. ANY CHANGE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST DETAILS
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. STAY UP TO
DATE ON THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS WITH THIS WEATHER SITUATION BY
VISITING HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
$$
NP
