Weather for Roswell, New Mexico
Lat: 33.37N, Lon: 104.53W
Wx Zone: NMZ538 CWA Used: ABQ
New Mexico Drought Monitor
The New Mexico Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of New Mexico land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.
Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.
New Mexico Hydrologic Information Statement
Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000 FGUS75 KABQ 141951 ESFABQ NMZ501>540-152000- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 151 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2017 ...APRIL 2017 NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK... ...EXISTING CONDITIONS... As of April 14, 2017 the USGS measured 14 day streamflow for most of the region remains near normal for this time of year. Lower than normal streamflows can be found at some locations, either due to regulation changes or longer term deficits in precipitation and soil moisture. Recent soil moisture data from the NASA SPoRT LIS model continues to show soil moisture deficits over most of eastern New Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley from Albuquerque south. Some of these deficits are primarily in the top soil as a result of drought conditions that developed in March while other deficits (mainly in the mid to lower levels of the soil column) are long term deficits. ...PRECIPITATION... March 2017 was an exceedingly dry month for New Mexico as high pressure dominated the area for the first three weeks of the month. The storm track kept precipitation out of most of the state except for some areas along the Northern Mountains. A pattern change during the last few days of the month allowed for some widespread rainfall over much of the state, however many areas still saw less than 10% of their normal monthly rainfall totals with some stations reporting zero precipitation for the month. For the 2016-2017 Water Year, most of the state is running near to above normal precipitation through April 13th with the highest totals being west of the Central Mountain Chain. A "boom-bust" pattern over New Mexico has led to 30-45 day dry periods being followed by 14-21 day periods of a more active weather pattern. The eastern third of the state (mainly east-central and southeast NM) continues to show precipitation values below normal for the water year. ...SNOWPACK... As of April 1st, snowpack data from the USDA/National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) indicate that the snowpack (specifically snow water equivalent, or SWE) values for the northern basins of New Mexico are generally at or above normal with exceptions of the Pecos, Cimarron, and Jemez River basins. The above normal temperatures during most of March started snowmelt on the Jemez Basin while melting some of the snow out of the already below normal Pecos and Cimarron Basins. Basins in the southern half of New Mexico are considered melted out as of April 1. Current SWE values can be found and the NRCS at https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/snotel-wereports.html NRCS SNOTEL Basin Average Values as of April 1 2017 Basin Snow Water Eqv % Total Precipitation % Rio Chama River Basin 141 132 Upper Rio Grande Basin 121 106 Sangre De Cristo Mountain Range Basins 91 102 Jemez River Basin 51 100 San Francisco River Basin 0 106 Gila River Basin 0 117 Mimbres River Basin 0 131 Pecos River Basin 51 77 San Juan River Headwaters 118 108 Animas River Basin 128 117 Cimarron River Basin 63 99 Zuni/Bluewater River Basin 0 146 Rio Hondo Basin 0 92 ...RESERVOIR SUMMARY... Most reservoirs in New Mexico have ample storage capacity at this time. Below is the current reservoir storage in KAF and percent of capacity for selected reservoirs in New Mexico as of April 1st, 2017. Data provided by the USDA/NRCS. Reservoir Current Current % Storage KAF Capacity Abiquiu Reservoir 122.4 10% Bluewater Lake 11.3 29% Brantley Lk nr Carlsbad 34.9 3% Caballo Reservoir 77.0 23% Cochiti Lake 47.7 10% Conchas Lake 72.3 28% Costilla Reservoir MSG MSG Eagle Nest Lake 34.1 43% El Vado Reservoir 58.6 31% Elephant Butte Reservoir 312.7 14% Heron Reservoir 86.7 22% Lake Avalon 1.7 4% Lake Sumner 30.1 30% Navajo Reservoir 1464.7 86% Santa Rosa Reservoir 54.6 12% Total 2408.8 29% ...STREAMFLOW FORECASTS... NWS River Forecast Centers, in conjunction with our partners in the NRCS, USACE, and the USBR, produce seasonal streamflow forecasts for selected river locations and basins in New Mexico. These forecasts are based on hydrologic conditions as of the 1st of the month and may not reflect current trends and forecasts. As of April 1, most basins impacting New Mexico are expected to have near or normal runoff volumes through the forecast period due to the large snowpacks available for runoff. The Pecos and San Francisco River are expected to have near to below normal runoff volumes. Forecasts issued by NWS/West Gulf & Arkansas-Red RFCs FORECAST RUNOFF AVERAGE RUNOFF MOST REASONABLE REASONABLE 30YR PROBABLE MAXIMUM MINIMUM 1981-2010 FORECAST FORECAST % % % POINT PERIOD 1000 30YR 1000 30YR 1000 30YR 1000 (*) AF AVG. AF AVG. AF AVG. AF *(1)APR-SEP *(2)MAR-JUL Canadian River Eagle Nest RES Rsvr Inflow, NM (2) 9 85 18 161 4 38 11 Cimarron River Cimarron NM (2) 13 85 26 165 3 20 15 Conchas RES Rsvr Inflow NM (2) 25 83 71 237 4 16 30 Rio Grande River Otowi Bridge, NM (2) 920 128 1200 167 675 94 720 San Marcial, NM (2) 605 119 820 161 390 76 510 Rio Hondo Valdez NM (2) 19 107 27 147 14 76 18 Rio Pueblo de Taos Los Cordovas blo, NM (2) 29 81 49 136 16 44 36 Embudo Creek Dixon (2) 42 88 71 148 21 44 48 El Vado res Inflow, NM (2) 360 160 450 200 280 124 225 Chamita NM (2) 450 144 650 208 300 96 312 Rio Ojo Caliente La Madera, NM (2) 70 156 106 235 40 88 45 Santa Cruz River Cundiyo, NM (2) 16 91 26 142 10 55 18 Pecos River Dixon (2) 44 77 71 125 24 42 57 Anton Chico NM (2) 44 70 88 140 17 27 63 Santa Rosa Lake Inflow (2) 34 61 72 129 12 21 56 Gallinas River Montezuma NM (2) 6 64 13 133 2 22 9 Forecasts issued by NWS/Colorado Basin RFC Period 50% %AVG 10% 30% 70% 90% A VG ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- - -- San Juan River Pagosa Springs Apr-Jul 235 109 300 255 210 195 2 15 Carracas Apr-Jul 400 105 500 435 340 325 3 80 Navajo Res, Archuleta, Apr-Jul 760 103 1000 845 660 600 7 35 Farmington Apr-Jul 1180 107 1540 1330 1030 950 11 00 Bluff, nr Apr-Jul 1200 109 1560 1340 1010 940 11 00 La Plata River Hesperus Apr-Jul 29 126 35 32 25 23 23 Navajo River Chromo near Oso Div Dam Apr-Jul 69 106 90 84 59 50 65 Animas River Durango Apr-Jul 465 112 625 540 420 355 4 15 Zuni River Black Rock Res Apr-May 0.05 50 0.08 0.06 0.02 0.00 0. 10 Gila River Gila Apr-May 19.3 117 28 21 19.1 19.0 16 .5 Virden Apr-May 24 114 32 27 22 21 21 San Francisco River Glenwood Apr-May 4.2 58 5.1 4.5 4.1 4.0 7 .3 50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet. %AVG Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average. 10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. 30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded. 90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded. 70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded. AVG Average volume for the 1981-2010 period. ...DROUGHT... Widespread abnormally dry conditions exist over most of New Mexico as a result of the abnormally dry and warm conditions during most of March. This combination resulted in a flash drought which rapidly dried the topsoil in many areas. Precipitation the last week of March helped to ease these conditions over much of the impacted areas. Drought status for NM is re- evaluated weekly and can be found at the National Drought Mitigation Center website at http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu. ...OUTLOOKS... SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK The 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks issued by the NWS/Climate Prediction Center continue an increased probability of normal to above normal temperatures with normal to slightly wetter for most of New Mexico. Please refer to the latest forecasts for more current weather information. LONG-TERM OUTLOOK The NWS/Climate Prediction Center has ended the La Nina Advisory and ENSO neutral conditions exist over the Pacific Ocean. Models guidance is expecting the neutral ENSO conditions to continue for the spring and into Summer 2017. The current CPC forecast for April through June 2017 continues the increased likelihood of warmer temperatures New Mexico. Climate signals that help to forecast precipitation over the Spring months during an ENSO Neutral pattern are weak, so equal chances of above, below, and normal precipitation is expected. These outlooks are issued monthly with the next outlook to be issued on March 16th. Outlooks can be found at the NWS/CPC website at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK At this time, the risk of spring flooding remains average for basins with near to above normal snowpack values and below normal for basins with below normal values. The only basins of note are the San Juan and Animas River Basins. Both of these basins have well above normal snowpack values. While normally flooding does not occur solely due to spring runoff, minor flooding could be possible if there is a heavy rainfall event that coincides with peak runoff flow. Many factors impact the likelihood of spring flooding, including snow pack and hydro- meteorological conditions at the time of runoff. While spring snowmelt related flooding is not usually expected on most mainstem rivers in New Mexico due to regulation, conditions will have to be monitored as the season progresses for the potential of higher than normal peak flows on unregulated rivers. The NWS Albuquerque Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) is serviced three river forecast centers: West Gulf RFC (Ft Worth, TX), Arkansas- Red Basin RFC (Tulsa, OK), and the Colorado River Basin RFC (Salt Lake City, UT). These RFC`s issue a variety of hydrologic forecast products during the year. Further products and current information can be found at the following locations: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov You can also find additional weather and water products and forecasts at the NWS Albuquerque website at: http://www.weather.gov/abq For questions or comments about this outlook, you can contact Royce Fontenot, Senior Service Hydrologist, at 505-244-9150 x 228 or via e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org| $$