Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KARX 271658
ESFARX
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS...
THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR
RIVER BASINS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO TWO PARTS...
ONE FOR HIGH WATER...AND ONE FOR LOW WATER.
A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE
FORECASTS IS GIVEN AT THE END OF THIS OUTLOOK.
IN THE FIRST TABLE BELOW FOR HIGH WATER...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT
COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SOUTH FORK
ZUMBRO RIVER AT ROCHESTER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 14 FEET. IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE
REACHING 6.9 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 9/1/2008 - 11/30/2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE 18 3.3 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.6 7.1 8.3 9.2 11.4
BLK RVR FLS 47 36.4 36.5 36.9 37.8 38.3 38.6 39.9 42.0 45.7
GALESVILLE 12 4.1 4.3 4.6 5.2 5.7 5.9 6.5 8.0 10.2
CEDAR RIVER
AUSTIN 15 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.1 6.2 6.7 7.7 9.0
LANSING 18 9.2 9.4 10.5 10.9 11.8 13.1 13.5 14.5 14.9
CHARLES CTY 12 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.2 4.2 5.0 5.7 7.3 9.9
TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN 10 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.0 3.9 4.6 5.3 6.6
KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE 12 3.8 5.2 6.2 7.1 7.8 8.8 9.3 9.8 11.2
VIOLA 14 9.4 11.6 12.5 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.7
READSTOWN 12 5.9 8.3 10.0 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.6 13.2
SLDRS GROVE 13 8.3 10.6 11.6 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.6
GAYS MILLS 13 8.9 11.5 12.3 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.4
STEUBEN 12 8.5 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.7
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY 16 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.4 8.0 8.9 11.1
WABASHA 12 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.7 9.9
ALMA 16 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.5 8.0
DAM 5 MM 651.1 651.1 651.2 651.4 651.5 651.8 652.2 652.9 654.8
DAM 5A MM 645.6 645.8 645.9 646.1 646.3 646.6 647.0 647.9 650.3
WINONA 13 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.9 8.8
TREMPEALEAU MM 639.4 639.6 639.7 640.0 640.3 640.7 641.0 641.6 643.2
LA CRESCENT MM 631.3 631.4 631.7 632.1 632.6 633.1 633.7 635.3 636.5
LA CROSSE 12 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.9 8.0
GENOA MM 620.8 621.1 621.5 622.2 622.9 623.8 624.6 626.0 627.4
LANSING 18 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 9.1 9.8
LYNXVILLE MM 612.5 613.1 613.9 614.7 615.2 616.1 617.2 618.4 619.5
MCGREGOR 16 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.3 9.0 10.1 10.7 11.9
GUTTENBERG 15 4.4 4.9 5.3 6.3 7.4 8.1 9.1 9.9 11.0
ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON 15 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 6.3 7.8 10.2 15.1
SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
HILLSBORO 13 5.2 5.8 6.3 7.2 7.6 9.1 10.0 12.2 13.4
SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO 12 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.2 5.5 6.5 10.1
TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE 9 5.4 5.8 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.2 9.4 10.2 10.8
TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER 12 5.7 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.1 9.4 10.2 11.0
GARBER 17 7.5 8.6 9.1 9.5 11.0 11.6 12.6 14.1 15.7
UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH 12 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.1 6.3 7.5 10.1
DORCHESTER 14 7.8 8.5 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 12.0 13.2 16.9
WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA 9 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.8 6.2
ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS 18 5.9 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.3 9.2 10.5
SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER 14 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.3 4.6 5.2 5.8 6.9
IN THIS NEXT TABLE...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
12 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
STAGE FALLING TO 2.1 FEET.
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 9/1/2008 - 11/30/2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE 18 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
BLK RVR FLS 47 35.8 35.7 35.7 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6
GALESVILLE 12 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4
CEDAR RIVER
AUSTIN 15 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9
LANSING 18 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.9
CHARLES CTY 12 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN 10 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1
KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE 12 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1
VIOLA 14 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8
READSTOWN 12 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
SLDRS GROVE 13 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5
GAYS MILLS 13 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1
STEUBEN 12 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY 16 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
WABASHA 12 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7
ALMA 16 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9
DAM 5 MM 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 650.9
DAM 5A MM 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.4
WINONA 13 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
TREMPEALEAU MM 639.3 639.3 639.3 639.2 639.2 639.2 639.2 639.2 639.2
LA CRESCENT MM 631.3 631.2 631.2 631.2 631.2 631.2 631.2 631.2 631.2
LA CROSSE 12 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
GENOA MM 620.6 620.6 620.6 620.5 620.5 620.5 620.5 620.5 620.4
LANSING 18 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7
LYNXVILLE MM 612.2 612.1 612.0 612.0 612.0 611.9 611.9 611.9 611.8
MCGREGOR 16 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2
GUTTENBERG 15 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON 15 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3
SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
HILLSBORO 13 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6
SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO 12 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9
TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE 9 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4
TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER 12 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
GARBER 17 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH 12 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
DORCHESTER 14 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1
WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA 9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS 18 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.3
SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER 14 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE LA CROSSE NWS INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE (LOWER CASE).
$$
