Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS72 KRAH 051854
ESFRAH
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-100000-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2010
...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...
RAINFALL SUMMARY
TWO SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS...THOSE WHICH SKIRT ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...PRODUCED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE PAST 2 WEEKS.
BOTH OF THESE WERE GLANCING BLOWS...WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED EAST OF THE AREA. WATER EQUIVALENT FROM THESE SYSTEMS RANGED
FROM AROUND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES (50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL). AS THE
END OF WINTER APPROACHES...OUR PAST 3 MONTHS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
VERY NEAR NORMAL.
BEGINNING ACTUAL NORMAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL
RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU)
LAST 7 DAYS 02/26/2010 0.41 0.91 -0.50 45%
LAST 14 DAYS 02/19/2010 0.82 1.79 -0.97 46%
LAST 30 DAYS 02/03/2010 2.75 3.73 -0.98 74%
LAST 90 DAYS 12/05/2009 10.52 10.67 -0.15 99%
LAST 180 DAYS 09/06/2009 24.18 20.77 3.41 116%
LAST 365 DAYS 03/05/2009 41.30 43.05 -1.75 96%
PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)
LAST 7 DAYS 02/26/2010 0.22 0.83 -0.61 27%
LAST 14 DAYS 02/19/2010 0.77 1.60 -0.83 48%
LAST 30 DAYS 02/03/2010 2.62 3.36 -0.74 78%
LAST 90 DAYS 12/05/2009 11.87 9.78 2.09 121%
LAST 180 DAYS 09/06/2009 28.60 20.02 8.58 143%
LAST 365 DAYS 03/05/2009 48.45 43.14 5.31 112%
FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY)
LAST 7 DAYS 02/26/2010 0.55 0.90 -0.35 61%
LAST 14 DAYS 02/19/2010 1.20 1.74 -0.54 69%
LAST 30 DAYS 02/03/2010 3.61 3.71 -0.10 97%
LAST 90 DAYS 12/05/2009 11.28 10.91 0.37 103%
LAST 180 DAYS 09/06/2009 20.40 21.19 -0.79 96%
LAST 365 DAYS 03/05/2009 37.42 46.78 -9.36 80%
STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALL FALLEN INTO THE NORMAL RANGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WATER SUPPLY/FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS HAVE
FALLEN GRADUALLY DUE TO CONTROLLED RELEASES...AND ARE ALL NOW
HOVERING WITHIN ONE FOOT OF NORMAL. MONITORED WELLS ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINED IN THE HIGH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY, MAR 9TH, PRODUCING DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SET UP WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL
BE MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS NO CLEAR INDICATION THAT WE WILL RECEIVE A SIGNIFICANT (>1
INCH OF WIDESPREAD LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT) AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS UPCOMING EVENT. HOWEVER...INITIAL CONDITIONS ARE A BIT
WETTER THAN NORMAL AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEMS LASTING
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS.
AS SUCH...THE SHORT TERM FLOOD OUTLOOK IS CATEGORIZED AS BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MARCH 10TH...AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FROM MARCH
11TH THROUGH MID MONTH.
LONG TERM RAINFALL OUTLOOK
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FORECASTS FOR THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN SUGGEST THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS...WHILE
WEAKENING...WILL LINGER THROUGH THE SPRING. STORM TRACKS WILL THUS
BE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...RESULTING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH APRIL.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WEBSITE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
IN SUMMARY...CONDITIONS ARE A BIT WETTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LATE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...THE SHORT TERM FLOOD OUTLOOK IS
CATEGORIZED AS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MARCH 10TH...AND NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL FROM MARCH 11TH THROUGH MID MONTH.
INDIVIDUAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST IN THE
LONGER RANGE, BUT THE WET CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL OF EL NINO WILL
MAINTAIN AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH APRIL.
THIS IS THE FINAL SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
FOR 2010. HOWEVER...IF CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RIVER
FLOODING...THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY MARCH 19TH.
$$
