Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KLSX 302014
ESFLSX
MOC051-055-071-099-111-113-127-151-163-173-189-221-ILC001-009-013-
027-051-149-012014-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR
EWING HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 11.0 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 15.9 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID SEPTEMBER 30 - DECEMBER 31, 2008
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
NORTH FABIUS RIVER
EWING 11.0 5.0 6.8 8.1 8.5 10.0 12.1 14.1 15.9 17.7
MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
EWING 12.0 4.3 6.4 8.1 9.4 10.7 13.1 15.8 18.1 19.2
SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
TAYLOR 9.5 4.4 5.8 6.2 7.1 8.3 9.8 11.3 13.3 15.4
NORTH RIVER
PALMYRA 13.0 5.0 8.2 8.8 10.1 11.3 12.5 13.7 16.9 18.7
SALT RIVER
NEW LONDON 19.0 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 13.0 13.7 15.1
CUIVRE RIVER
TROY 21.0 9.1 13.0 14.9 16.8 19.7 20.4 22.5 23.2 25.2
OLD MONROE 24.0 10.4 13.2 14.6 15.5 16.2 18.4 19.9 22.2 26.3
LA MOINE RIVER
RIPLEY 22.0 14.2 16.3 18.4 18.9 20.4 22.0 23.8 25.5 30.1
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CANTON LD 20 14.0 4.0 4.8 5.5 5.9 6.7 8.7 10.0 10.8 12.7
QUINCY 17.0 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.6 15.6 17.5
QUINCY LD 21 17.0 4.4 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.4 10.3 11.2 12.4 14.3
SAVERTON LD 22 16.0 5.7 6.5 7.4 8.3 9.0 11.1 12.3 14.3 16.4
LOUISIANA 15.0 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.3 13.1 14.6 17.5
CLARKSVILLE 24 25.0 14.2 15.4 16.7 17.7 19.0 21.3 22.9 25.0 27.9
WINFIELD LD 25 26.0 14.0 16.2 17.3 18.3 19.4 21.0 22.9 24.8 28.8
MERAMEC RIVER
STEELVILLE 12.0 2.4 5.3 6.5 8.7 10.1 11.4 13.3 15.6 17.8
SULLIVAN 15.0 3.7 7.4 8.8 10.8 12.6 14.4 17.1 18.2 23.2
PACIFIC 15.0 2.5 7.0 8.7 9.6 13.4 15.2 17.7 19.7 24.0
EUREKA 18.0 5.2 10.2 11.9 13.3 15.0 17.7 21.3 25.0 32.2
BOURBEUSE RIVER
UNION 15.0 7.0 8.2 9.5 10.8 11.8 13.2 14.7 17.6 20.4
BIG RIVER
BYRNESVILLE 16.0 7.2 9.2 11.5 13.1 14.3 16.0 16.9 18.1 22.7
KASKASKIA RIVER
VANDALIA 18.0 12.2 16.7 17.4 18.4 20.9 22.9 23.7 25.5 26.9
CARLYLE TW 23.5 18.7 18.7 18.7 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0
GASCONADE RIVER
RICH FOUNTAIN 20.0 4.8 6.8 8.2 11.6 13.7 14.6 16.4 21.8 24.6
MARIES RIVER
WESTPHALIA 10.0 1.7 2.7 3.0 3.8 4.6 8.4 10.6 13.1 15.6
MOREAU RIVER
JEFFERSON CITY 17.0 4.2 10.5 13.8 18.1 20.1 22.6 23.9 25.1 28.5
NOTE: CARLYLE TAILWATER VALUES SHOULD ALL BE PRECEEDED BY A /4/
SO THAT FOR EXAMPLE FLOOD STAGE OF 23.5 ACTUALLY READS 423.5
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER AT
EWING HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 3.2
FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID SEPTEMBER 30 - DECEMBER 31, 2008
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
NORTH FABIUS RIVER
EWING 11.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
EWING 12.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6
SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
TAYLOR 9.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6
NORTH RIVER
PALMYRA 13.0 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
SALT RIVER
NEW LONDON 19.0 5.2 5.2 4.8 3.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0
CUIVRE RIVER
TROY 21.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4
OLD MONROE 24.0 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0
LA MOINE RIVER
RIPLEY 22.0 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CANTON LD 20 14.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1
QUINCY 17.0 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9
QUINCY LD 21 17.0 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6
SAVERTON LD 22 16.0 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1
LOUISIANA 15.0 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4
CLARKSVILLE 24 25.0 13.6 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.0 12.0
WINFIELD LD 25 26.0 13.3 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.7
MERAMEC RIVER
STEELVILLE 12.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4
SULLIVAN 15.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9
PACIFIC 15.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7
EUREKA 18.0 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
BOURBEUSE RIVER
UNION 15.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
BIG RIVER
BYRNESVILLE 16.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
KASKASKIA RIVER
VANDALIA 18.0 10.2 10.1 8.5 5.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2
CARLYLE TW 23.5 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 14.6 12.4 11.3 11.1 11.1
NOTE: CARLYLE TAILWATER VALUES SHOULD ALL BE PRECEEDED BY A /4/
SO THAT FOR EXAMPLE FLOOD STAGE OF 23.5 ACTUALLY READS 423.5
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/STLOUIS FOR MORE WEATHER
AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS.
$$
FUCHS
WFO ST LOUIS
