Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
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CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-191630-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1022 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 5 (SUPPLEMENTAL)
THIS IS A SUPPLEMENTAL UPDATE TO THE FIFTH IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING)
OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.
THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID
FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD FROM MARCH 5, 2010 THROUGH MARCH 19,
2010.
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM MARCH 10TH THROUGH THE 14TH SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORMAL ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM
MARCH 12TH THROUGH THE 18TH SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NORMAL WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION - ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SNOW CONDITIONS - YEAR TO DATE SNOW CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE NORMAL.
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT STILL EXISTS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS SEASON...
...NEW YORK...
MOUNT SINAI.....68.3 INCHES
UPTON...........67.8 INCHES
PORT JERVIS.....61.2 INCHES
ISLIP...........53.7 INCHES
CARMEL..........53.0 INCHES
CENTRAL PARK....51.4 INCHES
KENNEDY ARPT....47.4 INCHES
BRIDGEHAMPTON...44.0 INCHES
LAGUARDIA ARPT..41.3 INCHES
...NEW JERSEY...
NEWARK..........47.9 INCHES
HARRISON........43.0 INCHES
...CONNECTICUT...
DANBURY.........44.4 INCHES
BRIDGEPORT......38.0 INCHES
NORWICH.........30.0 INCHES
RIVER ICE - NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STREAMFLOW - NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS REPORTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. REAL-TIME WATER DATA
CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) WEB
PAGES AT HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY WAS ABOVE NORMAL. COMBINED
STORAGE IN THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM IS AT 88 PERCENT
CAPACITY WHICH IS 4 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.
SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND
DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/ AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.
AHPS FLOOD FORECASTS - ABOVE NORMAL. THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) GENERATES PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS
BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS (RIVER LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE,
EXTENT AND CONDITION OF ANY SNOW PACK) ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF
HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA.
FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AHPS INDICATES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RIVER FLOODING IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA.
PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ FOR DETAILED AHPS INFORMATION.
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE AVERAGE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A COMPLEX,
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES PRECEDING AND ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL
AID IN THE MELTING OF SNOW PACKS STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION. RIVER FLOODING, WHICH IN SOME AREAS MAY BE SIGNIFICANT, IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND (3/13-3/14) AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARFC REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 19TH 2010.
FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WEATHER.GOV/NYC.
$$
