Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KOAX 051749 AAA
ESFOAX
IA-C071-085-129-133-137-145-155-NEC023-025-067-095-107-127-131-147-15
1-159-191700-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 AM CST FRI MAR 5 2010
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3...
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS...
...MISSOURI RIVER BASIN AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES OUTLOOK FOR RIVER
FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE OMAHA HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) WHICH
ENCOMPASSES 30 COUNTIES ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND 8 COUNTIES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE MAIN RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
INCLUDE THE ELKHORN...PLATTE AND MISSOURI AND ALL THEIR RESPECTIVE
TRIBUTARIES WHILE SOUTHWEST IOWA CONSISTS OF THE
MAPLE...NODAWAY...LITTLE SIOUX AND ALL TRIBUTARIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NISHNABOTNA.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ON THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN PLAINS EXISTS
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT AND UPCOMING RAIN EVENTS IS MORE LIKELY IN
THE LITTLE SIOUX BASIN AND THE NISHNABOTNA BASINS IN IOWA...AND THE
ELKHORN AND BIG BLUE BASINS IN NEBRASKA. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE
BUILDUP OF ICE ON THE RIVERS THIS WINTER...ICE JAMS WILL LIKELY ADD
TO FLOODING ISSUES AND CAUSE SOME OTHER RIVERS...LIKE THE LOWER
PLATTE RIVER...TO FLOOD ALSO. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING ON THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA DUE
TO SNOWMELT.
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA...THE SOILS ARE SATURATED
FROM AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FROZEN GROUND AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
EVENTS THIS WINTER. IN THE ABOVE AREAS...IT IS LIKELY THAT SPRING
FLOODING WILL HAPPEN IF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS OCCUR.
THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS A GENERALIZED SUMMARY OF SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL. ABOVE NORMAL FUTURE SNOW...COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINS AND RAPID MELT...WILL INCREASE THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL
WHILE BELOW NORMAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND GRADUAL OR INTERMITTENT
FREEZING AND THAWING WILL DECREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CURRENT
ASSESSMENT. IN ADDITION...WHEN MANY OF THE FROZEN RIVERS AND
STREAMS THAW...ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR...CAUSING HIGHER RIVER LEVELS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THESE PROJECTIONS OF RIVER STAGES ARE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVED OR
ESTIMATED STATES OF STREAMFLOW...SOIL MOISTURE...AND SNOW PACK.
THESE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE COUPLED WITH FUTURE PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AND ANTICIPATED OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC
CHANGES. THIS OUTLOOK IS PROVIDED FOR LONG-RANGE (WEEKS TO MONTHS)
PROJECTIONS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE. FORECASTS ARE PROVIDED FOR SHORT-TERM (DAYS)
PROJECTIONS BASED ON FUTURE FORECASTED PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE. THE UNCERTAINTY OF THESE PRODUCTS VARIES FROM SEASON
TO SEASON AND SITE TO SITE. IN RECENT YEARS...OUTLOOK CRESTS HAVE
BEEN ABOVE THE OBSERVED CREST ABOUT AS OFTEN AS THEY HAVE BEEN BELOW
THE OBSERVED CREST. THE UNCERTAINTY OF FORECASTS TEND TO BE LESS
THAN THE UNCERTAINTY OF OUTLOOKS DUE TO THEIR SHORTER LEAD TIME.
USERS OF THESE PRODUCTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THEIR NEAREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR CONTINUED UPDATES OF
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WHICH CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
FLOOD PLANNING AND FLOOD MITIGATION ACTIVITIES.
...CURRENT SNOW CONDITIONS...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SNOW IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
INCREASE NORTHWARD. SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA REPORTS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW AND ABOUT AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT. THERE MAY BE SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS...IN BOTH SNOW DEPTHS AND
WATER EQUIVALENTS. THE NORTHERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE EASTERN TIER
HAS 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND.
LIKE NEBRASKA...SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT INCREASES TO THE
NORTH IN IOWA. THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS
SNOW ON THE GROUND THEN COUNTIES TO THE NORTH. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA VARY FROM 1 TO AROUND 11 INCHES...AGAIN LESS SNOW TO
THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEPTHS AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
IOWA WHILE AREAS FURTHER NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA HAVE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES.
...CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
NEARLY ALL SOILS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ARE
SATURATED...DUE TO THE SNOWMELT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE
NEXT WEEK DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. FROST DEPTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0 TO 9 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER
NUMBERS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH. A 4-INCH FROST DEPTH WAS MEASURED
AT THE NWS OFFICE IN VALLEY...NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. ACCORDING TO
THE
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX...SOIL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA IS EXTREMELY MOIST.
...CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS...
VIRTUALLY ALL RIVERS IN THE BASIN ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING NORMAL
FLOWS. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE ELKHORN RIVER BASIN...NIOBRARA RIVER
BASIN...AND THE BIG BLUE RIVER BASIN...ALL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTHWEST IOWA IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY
NORMAL FLOWS FOR ALL AREA RIVERS...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOLDIER RIVER
WHICH IS RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL. THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO
THE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THAT THE AREA HAS RECEIVED THIS
WINTER AND A COUPLE OF SHORT PERIODS OF MELTING THAT HAVE TAKEN
PLACE. MANY OF THE RIVERS ARE ICE COVERED. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
RIVER ICE WILL THAW IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE BASED ON SHORT-TERM
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...AND WITH THAT SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ON THE AREA RIVERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE NISHNABOTNA RIVER BASIN
OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.
...WEATHER AND CLIMATE OUTLOOK...
THE 8- TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDEST THIRD COMPARED TO THE 1971-2000 CLIMATE
PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...WITH A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN USUAL CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL
IOWA...AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN USUAL CHANCE FOR WET CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA.
THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR...OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
...A SUMMARY OF RIVER CONDITIONS FOR SELECTED RIVER STATIONS ON
FEBRUARY 17 FOLLOWS...
LONG TERM CURRENT
MEDIAN (CFS) (CFS)
PLATTE RIVER - LOUISVILLE...NE 7830 4500(EST)
MISSOURI RIVER - OMAHA...NE 20000 18900
MISSOURI RIVER - RULO...NE 31000 30500
THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT HAS TWO SECTIONS. THE FIRST GIVES THE VARIOUS
CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD
STAGES. THE SECOND GIVES THE VARIOUS CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS
RISING ABOVE RESPECTIVE STAGE VALUES.
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...
THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...
AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER LOCATIONS LISTED DURING THE
VALID PERIOD INDICATED.
LITTLE SIOUX RIVER BASIN IN IOWA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID MARCH 7, 2010 - JUNE 5, 2010
DEPARTURE
OUTLOOK FLOOD PERCENT FROM NORMAL
LOCATION STAGES* MINOR MOD MAJOR AT FS**
-------- ------- ----- --- ----- ----------
MAPLE RIVER...
MAPLETON, IA 21/23/25 <1% <1% <1% N/A
LITTLE SIOUX RIVER...
TURIN 4S, IA 20/27/35 56% 8% <1% +28
* MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
** THIS MONTHS CHANCE OF EXCEEDING MINOR FLOOD STAGE COMPARED TO
THE CHANCE FOR NORMAL CONDITIONS...
+ % ABOVE NORMAL
- % BELOW NORMAL
N-N NEAR NORMAL
N/A NOT AVAILABLE
FS FLOOD STAGE...MINOR
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...
LITTLE SIOUX RIVER BASIN IN IOWA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID MARCH 7, 2010 - JUNE 5, 2010
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER AT A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL RISE ABOVE THE STAGES
INDICATED BY THE VALUES IN THE ROW FOR THAT LOCATION ANYTIME DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLETON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 21 FEET.
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE MAPLE RIVER
AT MAPLETON WILL RISE ABOVE 12.6 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 18.6 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/7/2010 - 6/5/2010
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
MAPLE RIVER...
MAPLETON 10.4 11.0 11.4 12.0 12.4 13.3 14.1 15.3 17.6
LITTLE SIOUX RIVER...
TURIN 4S 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.2 20.9 21.7 22.6 23.8 25.3
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES FROM GAVINS POINT TO KANSAS CITY
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID MARCH 7, 2010 - JUNE 5, 2010
DEPARTURE
OUTLOOK FLOOD PERCENT FROM NORMAL
LOCATION STAGES* MINOR MOD MAJOR AT FS**
-------- ------- ----- --- ----- ----------
SOLDIER RIVER...
PISGAH, IA 28/29/30 <1% <1% <1% N/A
BOYER RIVER...
LOGAN, IA 19/22/25 30% 12% 3% +12
WEEPING WATER CREEK...
UNION 2SE, NE 25/28/30 19% 6% 2% N-N
EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER...
RED OAK, IA 18/22/30 52% 21% <1% +10
WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER...
HANCOCK, IA 14/19/23 52% 27% 8% +17
RANDOLPH, IA 19/22/24 65% 28% 10% +22
NISHNABOTNA RIVER...
HAMBURG 2NE, IA 23/25/29 49% 37% 9% +15
LITTLE NEMAHA RIVER...
AUBURN 1NE, NE 22/23/27 24% 13% <1% +7
NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER...
HUMBOLDT, NE 28/31/35 <1% <1% <1% N/A
BIG NEMAHA RIVER...
FALLS CITY 1S, NE 23/25/31 22% 15% 3% N-N
NODAWAY RIVER...
CLARINDA 1E, IA 19/20/23 20% 19% 3% N-N
* MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
** THIS MONTHS CHANCE OF EXCEEDING MINOR FLOOD STAGE COMPARED TO
THE CHANCE FOR NORMAL CONDITIONS...
+ % ABOVE NORMAL
- % BELOW NORMAL
N-N NEAR NORMAL
N/A NOT AVAILABLE
FS FLOOD STAGE...MINOR
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/7/2010 - 6/5/2010
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
SOLDIER RIVER...
PISGAH 8.6 8.8 9.7 10.6 12.1 13.6 14.7 16.6 20.3
BOYER RIVER...
LOGAN 10.7 11.5 12.4 14.4 15.4 16.1 17.1 19.3 22.2
WEEPING WATER CREEK...
UNION 2SE 8.8 9.2 10.3 11.1 15.8 17.6 20.2 23.6 27.5
EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER...
RED OAK 11.9 12.3 13.1 15.7 19.1 19.9 20.5 22.1 23.2
WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER...
HANCOCK 7.4 8.1 9.4 11.2 15.2 16.8 18.5 20.8 22.6
RANDOLPH 13.9 15.0 17.5 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.9 22.7 24.0
NISHNABOTNA RIVER...
HAMBURG 2NE 16.2 17.5 19.1 21.0 22.7 23.9 26.5 27.4 28.4
LITTLE NEMAHA RIVER...
AUBURN 1NE 11.6 11.7 12.3 13.2 14.5 18.3 21.1 22.6 23.4
NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER...
HUMBOLDT 8.1 8.2 8.3 9.0 10.8 11.2 12.9 13.9 15.7
BIG NEMAHA RIVER...
FALLS CITY 1S 11.2 13.0 14.7 15.0 16.8 18.7 21.5 23.2 26.9
NODAWAY RIVER...
CLARINDA 1E 12.2 12.3 13.0 13.8 14.8 16.7 18.2 19.2 21.1
LOWER DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES IN NEBRASKA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
VALID MARCH 7, 2010 - JUNE 5, 2010
DEPARTURE
OUTLOOK FLOOD PERCENT FROM NORMAL
LOCATION STAGES* MINOR MOD MAJOR AT FS**
-------- ------- ----- --- ----- ----------
NIOBRARA RIVER...
VERDEL 6S, NE 7/8/10 10% 6% 4% N/A
PONCA CREEK...
VERDEL 1E, NE 12/15/17 22% 9% 4% +12
* MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
** THIS MONTHS CHANCE OF EXCEEDING MINOR FLOOD STAGE COMPARED TO
THE CHANCE FOR NORMAL CONDITIONS...
+ % ABOVE NORMAL
- % BELOW NORMAL
N-N NEAR NORMAL
N/A NOT AVAILABLE
FS FLOOD STAGE...MINOR
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/7/2010 - 6/5/2010
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
NIOBRARA RIVER...
VERDEL 6S 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.5 6.9
PONCA CREEK...
VERDEL 1E 5.8 6.2 7.8 8.8 9.4 10.0 10.4 12.6 14.6
BIG AND LITTLE BLUE RIVERS IN NEBRASKA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
VALID MARCH 7, 2010 - JUNE 5, 2010
DEPARTURE
OUTLOOK FLOOD PERCENT FROM NORMAL
LOCATION STAGES* MINOR MOD MAJOR AT FS**
-------- ------- ----- --- ----- ----------
BIG BLUE RIVER...
SURPRISE, NE 7/11/16 10% <1% <1% -7
LINCOLN CREEK...
SEWARD 3WNW, NE 15/17/20 33% 16% <1% N-N
BIG BLUE RIVER...
SEWARD, NE 18/22/27 13% 6% <1% N-N
WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER...
DORCHESTER 7NW, NE15/22/24 29% 3% <1% N-N
BIG BLUE RIVER...
CRETE 1W, NE 18/24/29 57% 14% 5% N-N
TURKEY CREEK...
WILBER 3W, NE 11/16/21 59% 3% <1% +9
BIG BLUE RIVER...
BEATRICE, NE 16/26/32 26% 5% <1% -6
BARNESTON, NE 20/27/34 13% 3% <1% N-N
LITTLE BLUE RIVER...
FAIRBURY, NE 18/20/26 11% 6% <1% -7
* MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
** THIS MONTHS CHANCE OF EXCEEDING MINOR FLOOD STAGE COMPARED TO
THE CHANCE FOR NORMAL CONDITIONS...
+ % ABOVE NORMAL
- % BELOW NORMAL
N-N NEAR NORMAL
N/A NOT AVAILABLE
FS FLOOD STAGE...MINOR
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/7/2010 - 6/5/2010
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BIG BLUE RIVER...
SURPRISE 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.6 7.1
LINCOLN CREEK...
SEWARD 3WNW 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.5 13.0 14.6 15.4 16.1 18.1
BIG BLUE RIVER...
SEWARD 7.9 8.0 8.3 10.0 11.2 12.9 15.1 16.4 19.3
WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER...
DORCHESTER 7NW 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.5 12.3 12.9 14.7 16.8 20.3
BIG BLUE RIVER...
CRETE 1W 15.6 15.6 16.4 17.5 18.9 20.3 21.4 22.9 25.5
TURKEY CREEK...
WILBER 3W 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.9
BIG BLUE RIVER...
BEATRICE 9.8 9.8 11.0 11.8 12.8 13.4 14.6 17.9 19.9
BARNESTON 11.5 11.5 12.1 12.5 14.2 15.9 16.5 17.6 20.7
LITTLE BLUE RIVER...
FAIRBURY 11.9 12.0 12.3 13.2 14.2 15.1 16.4 16.7 17.8
ELKHORN AND PLATTE RIVER IN NEBRASKA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
VALID MARCH 7, 2010 - JUNE 5, 2010
DEPARTURE
OUTLOOK FLOOD PERCENT FROM NORMAL
LOCATION STAGES* MINOR MOD MAJOR AT FS**
-------- ------- ----- --- ----- ----------
ELKHORN RIVER...
NELIGH, NE 10/11/13 5% 3% <1% N/A
NORFOLK, NE 12/13/17 <1% <1% <1% N/A
NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER...
PIERCE 2SE, NE 12/14/16 42% 11% <1% +29
ELKHORN RIVER...
PILGER, NE 12/14/15 6% <1% <1% N-N
WEST POINT 1W, NE 12/16/19 9% 2% <1% N-N
HOOPER, NE 14/18/19 6% 3% 3% N-N
LOGAN CREEK...
UEHLING 2SW, NE 18/19/21 29% 24% 11% N/A
ELKHORN RIVER...
WATERLOO, NE 17/18/21 6% 4% 3% N-N
SHELL CREEK...
COLUMBUS 8NE, NE 20/21/22 6% 5% 3% N-N
SALT CREEK...
ROCA, NE 19/23/26 15% <1% <1% N-N
LINCOLN, NE 20/26/33 10% 4% 2% N-N
GREENWOOD 1WNW, NE20/22/26 19% 13% 6% N-N
WAHOO CREEK...
ITHACA, NE 19/22/23 30% 7% <1% N-N
SALT CREEK...
ASHLAND, NE 16/20/23 36% 3% <1% N-N
* MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
** THIS MONTHS CHANCE OF EXCEEDING MINOR FLOOD STAGE COMPARED TO
THE CHANCE FOR NORMAL CONDITIONS...
+ % ABOVE NORMAL
- % BELOW NORMAL
N-N NEAR NORMAL
N/A NOT AVAILABLE
FS FLOOD STAGE...MINOR
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/7/2010 - 6/5/2010
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
ELKHORN RIVER...
NELIGH 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.7 7.3 8.2
NORFOLK 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.2
NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER...
PIERCE 2SE 7.4 7.8 8.5 10.2 11.3 12.1 12.4 13.2 14.0
ELKHORN RIVER...
PILGER 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 11.1 11.3
WEST POINT 1W 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.4 12.0
HOOPER 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 10.3 10.9 11.2 12.2 13.9
LOGAN CREEK...
UEHLING 2SW 9.1 10.8 11.2 13.3 14.1 15.0 17.6 19.5 21.1
ELKHORN RIVER...
WATERLOO 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.3 14.5 15.0 16.1
SHELL CREEK...
COLUMBUS 8NE 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 14.1 15.2 16.0 17.1 19.6
SALT CREEK...
ROCA 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.1 8.9 11.7 14.3 16.5 20.1
LINCOLN 5.6 5.7 6.7 7.5 9.0 12.3 15.3 16.6 20.6
GREENWOOD 1WNW 6.6 6.6 7.3 8.6 11.7 14.2 17.7 19.2 23.5
WAHOO CREEK...
ITHACA 6.4 6.6 8.8 9.9 10.8 15.3 19.0 21.3 21.8
SALT CREEK...
ASHLAND 9.7 9.7 9.9 11.2 13.4 14.9 16.5 17.7 18.2
THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST RESULTS OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW MODEL (ESF). THE MODEL IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS
USING CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND SOIL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ABOUT
50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...AND COMPARED AGAINST CURRENT
SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
PROVIDING A RANGE OF RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND PAST SPRING WEATHER...THE OUTLOOK GIVES EXPECTED
AMOUNTS OF RISK WHICH CAN THEN HELP WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING
AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
FORECASTERS PRODUCE MULTIPLE SCENARIO HYDROGRAPHS USING THE ESF
MODEL INITIALIZED WITH RECENT RAIN/SNOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
IN THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN AND APPLYING SETS OF PAST PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2004 AND FOR THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...
THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH
TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER MID-MONTH.
HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY FROM
EARLY MARCH TO EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON CONDITIONS.
THE OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP INTERPRETING THEM
ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS OMAHA AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OMAHA
THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" LINK IN THE LEFT MENU.
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB
SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN THE RIVER AT THE
RESPECTIVE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
THE NEXT OPTIONAL SPRING OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR RELEASE ON MARCH
25.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 402-359-4381.
$$
REESE
