Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
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FGUS71 KAKQ 052006
ESFAKQ
MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-192015-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
306 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2010
THIS OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE
WAKEFIELD FORECAST OFFICE AREA WHICH INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...EASTERN SHORE MARYLAND AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
IT IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS
WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT
PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER, SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
AND OTHERS.
CURRENTLY THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD FORECAST
AREA IS ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE JAMES,APPOMATTOX, YORK AND OTHER
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND EASTERN SHORE MARYLAND.
ACROSS THE CHOWAN BASIN IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER
ROANOKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
ALSO ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS IS DUE TO RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
MELTED SNOWFALL THAT HAS PRODUCED ADEQUATELY SATURATED CONDITIONS
OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS OR SO.
THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS:
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION WAS 100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN SHORE
MARYLAND...EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. IT WAS
60-100 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHICH IS 2 TO 3
INCHES.
SNOW CONDITIONS - AVERAGE.
WITH MOST OF THE SNOW NOW MELTED ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT IN REGARDS TO RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL.
RIVER ICE - AVERAGE.
LITTLE REMAINS IN THE WAY OF RIVER ICE ACROSS NWS WAKEFIELD
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...WHICH IS AVERAGE ANYWAY.
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.
STREAMFLOW IS CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...DELMARVA PENINSULA...EASTERN SHORE VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SUGGESTS UNUSUALLY MOIST TO
EXTREMELY MOIST SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
NWS WAKEFIELD AREA.
GROUND WATER - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK...
ASSUMING NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS...NO
WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE EXPECTED ANYWHERE WITHIN THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST JUNE OF THIS YEAR.
WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE WEATHER...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY THAT A WETTER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE 10 TO 14-DAY PERIOD.
THE LATEST NWS 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO THE VIRGINIA DELMARVA AND MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. PRECIPITATION IS
PREDICTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK PREDICTS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE ON FRIDAY, MARCH 19, 2010.
$$
K.LYNCH
