Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
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CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-021330-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
920 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 6
THIS IS THE SIXTH IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.
THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID
FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD FROM MARCH 19, 2010 THROUGH APRIL 2, 2010.
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM MARCH 24TH THROUGH THE 28TH SUGGESTS THAT BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM MARCH 28TH
THROUGH APRIL 1ST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORMAL ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION - ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SNOW CONDITIONS - YEAR TO DATE SNOW CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE NORMAL.
RIVER ICE - NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STREAMFLOW - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE
FOUND BY VISITING THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) WEB PAGES AT
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY WAS ABOVE NORMAL. COMBINED
STORAGE IN THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM IS AT 88 PERCENT
CAPACITY WHICH IS 4 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.
SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND
DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/ AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.
AHPS FLOOD FORECASTS - ABOVE NORMAL. THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) GENERATES PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS
BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS (RIVER LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE,
EXTENT AND CONDITION OF ANY SNOW PACK) ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF
HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA.
PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ FOR DETAILED AHPS INFORMATION.
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - EXPECT NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION...WITH A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL EVENTS AFFECTING THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA THROUGH
THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 2ND 2010.
FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WEATHER.GOV/NYC.
$$
