Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
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ESFHUN
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-TNC051-103-127-091100-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1155 AM CST MON MAR 8 2010
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SPRING 2010.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ISSUES A SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK TWICE EACH SPRING. THIS PRODUCT IS BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF SOIL MOISTURE...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS...RESERVOIR
LEVELS...AND FUTURE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. SNOW COVER IN THE BASIN
AS A WHOLE IS FACTORED IN IF IT HAS OCCURRED.
.CURRENT CONDITIONS...
2010 HAS BEGUN AS "NORMALLY WET." THAT IS...IT HAS BEEN RATHER WET
BUT WE ARE ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON RAINFALL SINCE JANUARY
1ST. HOWEVER...2009 WAS AN EXTREMELY WET YEAR OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS 15 OR 20 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS.
RECENT SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER HAS ALLOWED SOIL MOISTURE TO DECREASE
TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY
HIGH ANYWAY. SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY IN THE 50TH TO 70TH
PERCENTILE...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE COOSA AND TOMBIGBEE BASINS.
BASED ON OBSERVED DATA FROM THE CROSSVILLE CLIMATE REFERENCE NETWORK
SITE...AVERAGE WATER CONTENT IS APPROXIMATELY 30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT
THE DEEP SUBSURFACE COLUMN DOWN TO ONE METER.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TENNESSEE RIVER HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM FLOODING WHICH
OCCURRED IN FEBRUARY. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...THE SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW COMPARED TO HISTORICAL
STREAMFLOW FOR THIS DATE IS AS FOLLOWS:
BIG NANCE CREEK AT COURTLAND...56 PERCENT OF NORMAL
LIMESTONE CREEK NEAR ATHENS...54 PERCENT OF NORMAL
FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO...84 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PAINT ROCK RIVER NEAR WOODVILLE...48 PERCENT OF NORMAL
WEST FORK LITTLE RIVER AT DESOTO ST PARK...53 PERCENT OF NORMAL
RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THIS AREA ARE GENERALLY HELD WITHIN A NORMAL
OPERATING RANGE THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. DURING HEAVY RAINS EARLIER THIS
YEAR...THE RESERVOIRS WERE ABOVE THOSE RANGES...BUT CURRENTLY ARE
NEAR NORMAL.
.7 DAY FORECAST...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. NORMAL RAINFALL FOR A WEEK AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
NEARLY AN INCH AND A HALF.
.8-14 DAY OUTLOOK...
THE EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 11TH
THROUGH 17TH. THE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN NORTH
ALABAMA FOR THE SAME PERIOD...AND INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR
NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE.
.MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
.SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING...
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING SEASON...MARCH THROUGH MAY...ISSUED BY
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHTLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL...OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
.LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS...
PROBABILITIES OF LONG-TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR TENNESSEE VALLEY
TRIBUTARIES ARE PROVIDED WEEKLY BY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER IN SLIDELL LOUISIANA. THESE PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE
USED FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND FACTOR IN HISTORICAL CONDITIONS IN
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS. THEY DO NOT INCLUDE FUTURE RAINFALL.
THESE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIY OF
FLOODING FOR THE 90-DAY PERIOD ENDING MAY 30TH 2010...ABOUT 12
PERCENT ON THE FLINT RIVER NEAR CHASE...AROUND 25 PERCENT ON THE ELK
RIVER ABOVE FAYETTEVILLE...ABOUT 20 PERCENT ON THE PAINT ROCK RIVER
NEAR WOODVILLE...AND ABOUT 45 PERCENT ON THE BIG NANCE CREEK NEAR
COURTLAND.
THESE FIGURES ARE FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY. DO NOT USE THEM AS A
MEANS OF IGNORING FLOOD THREATS THAT MAY OCCUR WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
IF FLOOD OUTLOOKS...WATCHES...OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND PROPERTY.
.WRAPUP...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2010 IS ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE HUNTSVILLE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
THIS PRODUCT IS DESIGNED TO GIVE THE PUBLIC AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS AN OUTLOOK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DURING THE NEXT
FEW MONTHS...THE TRADITIONAL FLOODING SEASON. THIS AND OTHER
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK ON THE
LEFT...OR TAB AT THE TOP.
NATIONAL FLOOD SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK IS MARCH 15TH THROUGH 19TH
2010.
STREAM AND RAINFALL DATA ARE PROVIDED BY THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AUTHORITY...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS...AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE AND BACKYARD
WEATHER OBSERVERS. WE THANK THESE PARTNERS FOR THEIR VALUABLE DATA.
$$
ELLIOTT
