Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS72 KTAE 060400
ESFTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-190000-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1100 PM EDT FRI MAR 5 2010
...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...
...ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING...
...EXISTING CONDITIONS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST QUIETED A BIT IN LATE FEBRUARY AND FIRST WEEK OF MARCH AS
THE FREQUENCY OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS HAS LESSENED. MOST AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE RECESSED TO PRE-EVENT LEVELS.
ELEVATED FLOWS TO MINOR FLOOD CONTINUE ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT
BLOUNTSTOWN AND AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT FLORIDA. CALCULATED SOIL
MOISTURE PERCENTILES FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AS OF MARCH
3 REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THOUGH MANY
RESERVOIRS HAVE FALLEN AND ARE AWAY FROM THEIR FULL POOLS...THEY
REMAIN HIGH AND ABOVE THEIR MARCH TARGET POOLS. GROUND WATER LEVELS
HAVE STABILIZED TO NORMAL LEVELS.
...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
THE 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR A 35 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE BIG
BEND...AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL...NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGIES FOR THE FLINT...APALACHICOLA...PEA...
CHIPOLA...SHOAL...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...OCHLOCKONEE AND SUWANNEE
WATERSHEDS WHICH INCLUDE THEIR ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES
SUGGEST THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING TYPICALLY PEAKS FROM EARLY
MARCH THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN APRIL ON AVERAGE.
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS THIS WINTER
SEASON...HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND EXPECTED NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS...THERE WILL
BE AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
THIS SPRING SEASON. EXACTLY WHICH BASINS WILL FLOOD AND TO WHAT
EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS DURING THE
SPRING MONTHS.
&&
INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICTS.
FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEB SITES:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE
$$
JAMSKI
