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Lawrenceville Weather

Weather for Moline, Illinois

Lat: 41.49N, Lon: 90.49W
Wx Zone: ILZ015 CWA Used: DVN

Illinois Drought Monitor

The Illinois Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Illinois land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Illinois Drought Monitor

Illinois Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS73 KDVN 272054
ESFDVN
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-
187-195-MOC045-199-151800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
254 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Probabilistic Outlook...

This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for
river basins in the NWS Quad Cities service area. This outlook is
divided into three parts, the first part for the probabilities of
minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water
and the final part for low water.

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor, moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11        16.0   17.0   20.5 :  38   39   30   32   10   10
Dubuque             17.0   18.0   21.5 :  45   45   35   38   10   11
Bellevue LD12       17.0   18.0   20.0 :  24   27   17   18    9   10
Fulton LD13         16.0   18.0   20.0 :  41   43   21   23   10   10
Camanche            17.0   18.5   20.5 :  37   36   22   24   12   11
Le Claire LD14      11.0   12.0   13.5 :  41   41   27   26   15   12
Rock Island LD15    15.0   16.0   18.0 :  57   47   41   39   20   17
Ill. City LD16      15.0   16.0   18.0 :  52   43   39   38   20   18
Muscatine           16.0   18.0   20.0 :  63   48   39   38   19   17
New Boston LD17     15.0   16.5   18.5 :  69   51   43   40   27   24
Keithsburg          14.0   15.5   17.0 :  70   51   43   40   28   21
Gladstone LD18      10.0   12.0   14.0 :  69   51   41   37   24   19
Burlington          15.0   16.5   18.0 :  64   51   42   37   27   22
Keokuk LD19         16.0   17.5   19.0 :  32   27   26   20   14   11
Gregory Landing     15.0   18.0   25.0 :  76   56   39   31   95   65   85   54 
   9   95   52   57   26   23   15
Moline              12.0   13.0   14.0 :  76   51   56   30   40   21

:Green River
Geneseo             15.0   16.5   18.0 :  22   18   13   13    8    6

:La Moine River
Colmar              20.0   22.0   24.0 :  72   63   55   43   25   19

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
ft = Feet

In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (ft) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11         10.1   10.9   13.4   15.0   17.4   20.2   21.8
Dubuque              11.9   12.6   14.9   16.6   19.0   21.7   23.2
Bellevue LD12        10.7   11.3   13.3   14.6   17.0   19.6   20.8
Fulton LD13          10.4   10.9   13.6   15.3   17.5   20.1   22.2
Camanche             12.3   12.6   14.4   15.9   18.2   21.1   23.4
Le Claire LD14        7.7    8.0    9.4   10.4   12.1   14.7   16.8
Rock Island LD15     10.4   11.0   13.5   15.5   17.6   20.3   22.0
Ill. City LD16        9.5   10.3   13.0   15.1   17.6   20.7   22.7
Muscatine            11.2   11.9   14.6   16.8   19.5   21.9   23.4
New Boston LD17      11.2   11.9   14.3   16.1   18.8   21.5   22.8
Keithsburg           10.9   12.0   13.7   15.2   17.3   19.3   21.0
Gladstone LD18        6.5    7.9    9.8   11.4   13.9   16.3   17.8
Burlington           12.0   13.0   14.6   16.0   18.4   20.4   22.0
Keokuk LD19           8.3    9.7   11.7   13.6   17.9   20.0   21.3
Gregory Landing      11.1   12.5   15.1   16.8   20.4   22.6   23.8

:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20     7.5    8.0    8.8   10.4   13.0   16.0   20.0
Maquoketa            15.7   16.3   17.4   20.6   22.6   26.0   27.6

:Wapsipinicon River
Independence          6.9    7.1    7.6    8.4    9.8   12.1   13.4
Anamosa Shaw Rd       9.7   10.3   11.3   13.0   14.7   18.2   19.8
De Witt 4S           10.2   10.8   11.6   12.2   12.8   13.1   13.2

:North Skunk River
Sigourney            12.2   12.9   15.1   17.2   19.2   20.1   20.7

:Skunk River
Augusta               7.2    8.7   10.8   13.5   17.2   20.6   20.9

:Cedar River
Vinton               10.1   10.9   11.9   13.3   14.9   18.0   19.6
Cedar Rapids          7.4    8.5    9.0   10.7   12.9   17.2   19.6
Conesville           11.4   12.6   13.5   14.2   15.3   16.4   17.2

:Iowa River
Marengo              14.5   14.9   15.8   16.2   17.2   18.3   18.6
Iowa City            16.5   17.0   18.4   19.4   19.5   19.7   23.1
Lone Tree            11.2   12.1   13.3   14.2   14.5   16.3   17.9
Columbus Jct         16.2   17.7   19.0   20.0   22.0   24.4   26.1
Wapello              17.7   19.1   20.5   22.1   23.7   26.1   27.6
Oakville              7.5    8.8    9.9   11.3   12.6   15.2   16.7

:English River
Kalona                9.8   11.0   12.7   14.1   16.3   17.7   18.5

:Des Moines River
Keosauqua            16.4   17.4   18.2   19.5   20.8   22.0   23.0
St Francisville      15.2   16.4   17.3   19.1   20.9   22.2   23.0

:Fox River
Wayland               5.9    6.9    8.3   11.6   14.6   16.5   18.7

:Pecatonica River
Freeport             10.9   11.2   12.1   13.5   14.0   14.6   15.2

:Rock River
Como                  7.5    8.1    9.9   11.5   12.4   13.4   13.8
Joslin               13.0   13.0   13.0   14.2   16.0   17.6   18.8
Moline               10.4   10.8   12.1   13.3   14.7   16.0   16.7

:Green River
Geneseo               7.3    8.6   10.6   12.2   14.6   17.2   19.1

:La Moine River
Colmar               13.7   16.0   18.8   22.2   24.0   25.3   25.8

In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (ft) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 01/31/2016 - 04/30/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11          4.9    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.3
Dubuque               7.8    7.8    7.7    7.7    7.6    7.5    7.4
Bellevue LD12         4.8    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.2    4.0    3.9
Fulton LD13           5.0    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.4
Camanche              9.2    9.1    9.0    9.0    8.9    8.8    8.8
Le Claire LD14        4.9    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.5
Rock Island LD15      6.0    5.8    5.6    5.3    5.0    4.8    4.6
Ill. City LD16        4.9    4.8    4.6    4.4    4.1    3.9    3.7
Muscatine             7.0    6.8    6.7    6.5    6.4    6.2    6.1
New Boston LD17       5.6    5.3    5.0    4.6    4.3    3.9    3.7
Keithsburg            7.6    7.2    6.9    6.5    6.1    5.9    5.8
Gladstone LD18        3.1    2.9    2.6    2.2    1.9    1.6    1.5
Burlington            9.2    8.9    8.6    8.4    8.2    8.1    8.0
Keokuk LD19           5.3    5.2    5.0    4.5    4.0    3.7    3.4
Gregory Landing       7.1    7.0    6.9    6.7    6.6    6.5    6.4

:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20     4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.8
Maquoketa            11.6   11.5   11.3   11.1   11.0   10.9   10.8

:Wapsipinicon River
Independence          5.1    5.1    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9
Anamosa Shaw Rd       5.8    5.8    5.6    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.1
De Witt 4S            6.4    6.3    6.2    5.9    5.6    5.5    5.4

:North Skunk River
Sigourney             5.6    5.5    5.3    5.0    4.7    4.5    4.5

:Skunk River
Augusta               3.6    3.5    3.2    2.9    2.6    2.2    2.0

:Cedar River
Vinton                4.5    4.4    4.3    3.8    3.5    3.2    3.1
Cedar Rapids          4.6    4.6    4.5    4.2    4.1    4.0    3.9
Conesville            8.1    8.0    7.7    7.2    6.9    6.7    6.7

:Iowa River
Marengo               8.7    8.6    8.1    7.6    7.3    7.1    6.9
Iowa City            12.0   11.7   11.2   11.0   10.9   10.7   10.6
Lone Tree             7.8    7.6    7.1    6.6    6.3    6.0    5.6
Columbus Jct         12.5   12.4   12.0   11.3   10.9   10.6   10.4
Wapello              13.7   13.6   13.2   12.6   12.1   11.8   11.6
Oakville              3.8    3.7    3.3    2.7    2.2    2.0    1.8

:English River
Kalona                5.1    4.9    4.8    4.6    4.4    4.1    4.0

:Des Moines River
Keosauqua            12.8   12.7   12.3   11.9   11.5   11.4   11.2
St Francisville      10.1   10.0    9.3    8.9    8.3    8.1    8.0

:Fox River
Wayland               2.4    2.3    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.7

:Pecatonica River
Freeport              6.8    6.7    6.2    5.6    5.4    5.0    4.9

:Rock River
Como                  5.3    5.1    4.9    4.3    4.1    3.9    3.8
Joslin                9.6    8.8    7.6    6.9    6.0    5.8    5.6
Moline                9.3    9.2    9.0    8.7    8.5    8.4    8.3

:Green River
Geneseo               4.6    4.5    4.3    4.1    3.9    3.6    3.5

:La Moine River
Colmar                4.7    4.7    4.3    4.1    3.9    3.7    3.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site at http://www.weather.gov/dvn for more weather and
water information.

The first Official Spring Flood Outlook will be issued February 18th.
A second Spring Flood Outlook will be issued March 3rd.

$$

Brooks