Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KBIS 251846
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-061-069-075-079-101-281800-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1030 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008
...SOURIS RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN
DRAINAGE SYSTEM IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...VALID THROUGH THE
LAST WEEK OF JANUARY 2009.
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID OCTOBER 28, 2008 - JANUARY 26, 2009
THE LATEST CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER (30-DAY OUTLOOK) SHOWS NO DEVIATION FROM
NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION. THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK FOR
NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THESE OUTLOOKS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE
INTERNET AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS
BELOW IS TABLE 1 WHICH SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
STAGE. FOR MORE DETAILS SUCH AS CHANCES OF EXCEEDING CERTAIN STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS REFER TO TABLE 2.
TABLE 1. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
IN THE BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
VALID OCTOBER 28, 2008 THROUGH JANUARY 26, 2009
CHANCE OF
LOCATION FS (FT) EXCEEDING FS
-------- ------- ---------
DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM 16 LESS THAN 10%
SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W 18 LESS THAN 10%
FOXHOLM 3E 10 LESS THAN 10%
MINOT 4NW 14 LESS THAN 10%
MINOT BWY BRG 1549 LESS THAN 10%
LOGAN 34 LESS THAN 10%
SAWYER 22 LESS THAN 10%
VELVA 1505 LESS THAN 10%
TOWNER 1W 52 LESS THAN 10%
BANTRY 8E 11 LESS THAN 10%
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10 LESS THAN 10%
WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 5NE 7 LESS THAN 10%
WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10 LESS THAN 10%
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER AT THE GIVEN LOCATION WOULD RISE ABOVE THE INDICATED STAGE LEVELS
WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE
ABOVE 5.3 FEET...BUT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE
5.8 FEET.
TABLE 2. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET
VALID 10/28/2008 - 1/26/2009
LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
________ ______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM 16 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.
6
SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W 18 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.
6
FOXHOLM 3E 10 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.
7
MINOT 4NW 14 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.
4
MINOT BWY BRG 1549 1532.0 1532.8 1534.5 1535.2 1535.6 1536.0 1536.5 1537.6 1538
.7
LOGAN 36 18.9 19.0 19.4 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.
9
SAWYER 22 5.5 5.5 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.
8
VELVA 1505 1489.0 1489.0 1489.2 1489.4 1489.7 1489.9 1490.1 1490.3 1490
.6
TOWNER 1NW 52 43.4 43.4 43.4 43.4 43.5 43.8 44.1 44.3 44.
5
BANTRY 8E 11 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.
9
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.
2
WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 5NE 7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.
4
WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.
8
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF STAGE...FLOW...AND VOLUME...AND
AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES FOR THE 90-DAY PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS AND EXPLANATIONS
THAT HELP IN THEIR INTERPRETATION ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS/AHPS
TABLE 3 IS A FEATURE THAT PROVIDES PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR "HOW LOW WILL
THE RIVER GET?" THIS NEW FEATURE HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED ON OUR AHPS WEB PAGES
FOR EACH FORECAST POINT IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN THAT HAS PROBABILISTIC
GRAPHICS PRODUCED FOR THEM. PROBABILISTIC LOW FLOW INFORMATION WILL PROVIDE
USEFUL INFORMATION DURING DROUGHTS...AND FOR RIVER USERS INTERESTED IN
FISHERIES...INDUSTRIAL DISCHARGES...DILUTION RATIOS...RECREATION...
IRRIGATION...AND NAVIGATION. IT WILL AID IN RISK ASSESSMENT DURING SITUATIONS
WHERE LOW FLOWS MAY BE CRITICAL TO OPERATIONS.
TABLE 3. CHANCES OF FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET
VALID 10/28/2008 - 1/26/2009
LOCATION FS (FT) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
________ _______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM 16 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.
7
SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W 18 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.
6
FOXHOLM 3E 10 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.
7
MINOT 4NW 14 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.
9
MINOT BWY BRG 1549 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532
.6
LOGAN 36 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.9 19.
0
SAWYER 22 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.
5
VELVA 1505 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489
.0
TOWNER 1NW 52 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.
2
BANTRY 8E 11 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.
7
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.
6
WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 5NE 7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.
7
WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.
6
THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS REPRESENT
NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS...FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN
SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW
COVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL 13 RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE SOURIS RIVER
BASIN ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. FIVE-DAY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
WHEN THE RIVER AT A FORECAST POINT IS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE NEXT AHPS FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED THE LATTER PART OF NOVEMBER 2008.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.
VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND
FLOOD INFORMATION.
$$
SCHULTZ
